It’s hard to exceed expectations as one of the top prospects in the sport, but JJ Wetherholt is doing more than living up to the hype. Through the first two months of his rookie campaign, he’s putting together one of the most complete rookie seasons by a second baseman in recent memory.
Through his first 56 big league games, Wetherholt ranks first among rookies with 2.5 fWAR. That value comes from blending elite defense, a 123 wRC+ and seven stolen bases, truly impacting the game in all facets. If the season ended today, Wetherholt would have a strong case for the National League Rookie of the Year Award. And if his current production sustains, he’s going to have some incredible numbers to look back on.
Wetherholt is currently on pace for a 7 fWAR season, which would be the best year from a rookie second baseman over the last 100 years. Only one rookie second baseman has ever had even a 6 fWAR season in the last century (Cardinals’ Lou Klein in 1943). It’s rare to find a middle infielder who is as impactful as Wetherholt in their rookie season, and it’s a big reason why the Cardinals have been so successful early in the year.
Where Wetherholt has truly separated himself as a rookie has been through his defensive value. Wetherholt is on pace to have over 20 outs above average, which would be a top-three output from any second baseman since OAA started being recorded for infielders in 2020. His pace for 25 defensive runs saved would be fourth-best since 2006.
Whether it’s his arm, range, athletic ability or budding partnership with Masyn Winn, Wetherholt just finds ways to make plays in the field, and it’s helping raise the ceiling for him as a player who was known for his bat coming through the system.
At the plate, it’s hard to argue with the blend of on-base and power he’s displayed thus far, and his .362 xwOBA suggests he’s even been a bit unlucky thus far.
What may go most unnoticed for Wetherholt is how he has impacted the game on the basepaths as the Cardinals’ leadoff hitter. Not only is he on pace for 20 stolen bases, but his +2 baserunning runs rank tied for eighth in MLB. He’s not the fastest player around, but he runs the bases well, makes great reads and plays with an aggressive style that has often been rewarded. As the player setting the table for the rest of the lineup, that “hidden” value is why he ranks among the best in baseball in runs scored (39).
Wetherholt has also quickly emerged as a leader in the Cardinals’ clubhouse that other players respect and follow. Teammates and coaches have praised the way he carries himself, how he prepares and the way he plays with an edge without ever looking overwhelmed by the moment. Those traits have only added to the belief that Wetherholt’s early success is the beginning of a great career with St. Louis.
Rookies as productive as Wetherholt are few and far between, and if he weren’t competing with one of the deepest rookie classes we’ve seen in quite some time, the buzz around what he’s doing would be even louder. But what has made Wetherholt’s first year so impressive is that his impact is meaningful in all phases of the game.
He has been a table-setter at the plate, a menace on the basepaths and one of the most valuable defenders in the sport. For a Cardinals team trying to build something sustainable around a younger core, that kind of all-around presence is invaluable.