PEORIA, Ariz. -- Joe Musgrove will “most likely” begin the regular season on the injured list.
That’s what Padres manager Craig Stammen said prior to the club’s 3-1 win over the Giants on Monday afternoon at Peoria Sports Complex.
“It’s getting to the point where he’s taking enough time off that it would be hard to ramp him up to get him to be a viable starter that can throw five innings and 90 pitches. So, like I said, this was part of the plan, and we knew he was going to have to take some time off.
“We knew we were going to have to get him ready for the entire season and not just Opening Day.”
It’s not a surprising development, given that Musgrove is being slow-played this spring as he nears his return from Tommy John surgery, and the Padres have repeatedly said that they want to be careful with the right-hander to ensure that he is healthy enough to contribute at his best throughout the 2026 campaign.
But Stammen’s statement underscores another theme that has been front and center throughout camp: the need to fill vacancies at the back end of the starting rotation behind Nick Pivetta (who recently missed a scheduled start due to arm fatigue but seemed fine in his first start back), Michael King and Randy Vásquez.
Entering camp, the candidates were Walker Buehler, Griffin Canning, Marco Gonzales, Germán Márquez, Triston McKenzie and JP Sears. As camp progressed, it seemed Buehler and Márquez had emerged as favorites.
Buehler entered his start against San Francisco on Monday with a 5.40 ERA over two spring outings. Márquez, meanwhile, was hit hard in his last outing against the Royals, seeing his ERA this spring balloon to 12.15 following a solid showing in his second Cactus League start.
Buehler acquitted himself well on Monday, pitching five scoreless innings against the Giants and lowering his spring ERA to 3.09. He yielded three hits, walked two, hit a batter and struck out seven. He threw 77 pitches, 45 for strikes.
At this point, it stands to reason that Buehler will be part of the Opening Day rotation.
“It was good to kind of use all my pitches, the changeup was really good today,” said Buehler, who hasn’t been able to recapture his All-Star form from prior to his second Tommy John surgery in 2022. “ … All in all, a pretty good day.”
When asked how he saw his chances of making the Opening Day rotation, Buehler didn’t hesitate at all with his answer.
“That’s above my pay grade,” he said.
Walker has had to reinvent himself to some degree. He’s no longer the flamethrower who could touch 98 or 99 mph. On Monday, his fastball sat around 93-94 mph, and he credited two secondary offerings he throws differently from earlier in his career as being effective.
“I feel pretty confident with the two new pitches,” Buehler said. “ … Getting the sweeper back, getting a changeup that I feel like I can throw to right[-handed hitters] and left[ies].”
Should the fifth spot not come into focus before camp breaks, one option for the Padres might be to go with a four-man rotation early in the season, given that they have two scheduled off-days over the first eight days. With a deep bullpen that is considered one of, if not the best, in the game, perhaps San Diego could lean on the relief corps for some additional innings.
Or there’s always the possibility that president of baseball operations A.J. Preller brings in an external option at the last minute.
Right now, though, there is still time -- albeit not much -- for someone to seize the opportunity.
“We’ve got a lot of competition here in Spring Training," Stammen said. “It’s been fun to watch, and guys are competing for spots. We’ll miss Joe at the beginning, but we’re going to have Joe at some point.”
As to how long it will be before the final rotation plan comes together, the Padres will use every second they have before it starts counting for real.
“Probably the day before Opening day,” Stammen said of when he plans to have it nailed down. “We’ll wait all the way until we have to make a decision. I think it’s probably smart to wait as long as you can to make decisions because you never know what could happen in between that time period.
“Anybody that’s still in camp is a viable candidate and could make the starting rotation at the beginning of the year."