José Soriano has been one of baseball's pleasant surprises in the first month. How pleasant? With a 5-0 record, a microscopic 0.28 ERA and a nearly-as-small 0.73 WHIP across his first five starts -- all the best marks in the Majors -- the Angels righty has been nothing short of dominant.
It's a development nobody saw coming for Soriano, who entered the season with a career 17-21 record, a 1.32 WHIP and a 3.89 ERA. Though he's always had an elite fastball, and though that 3.89 ERA was significantly better than league average (4.21) during Soriano's first three seasons, nothing suggested this level of dominance.
He enters Wednesday's start against the Blue Jays having allowed just one run all season and having allowed more than two hits just once. Can he keep the good times rolling against Toronto? Maybe the better question is whether Toronto can become just the second team to score on him at all.
Soriano's lone run allowed this season came on a solo homer from the Braves' Drake Baldwin on April 6. Aside from that, nada. That presents quite the challenge for the Blue Jays, who have a .698 OPS, which ranks in MLB's bottom half. Though Toronto's .253 average is in baseball's top 10, having to string hits together to produce runs against Soriano has not been a recipe for success so far this season.
But at least the Blue Jays have seen him before.
Soriano has two career appearances against Toronto totaling 6 2/3 innings, including a start last May in which he went five innings and allowed three runs in an Angels loss. More importantly, the Blue Jays had a nearly 69 percent hard-hit rate in that game, which is usually a path to victory. But that was against the before Soriano, so Wednesday's game could look much different.
Perhaps the biggest reason why Soriano has allowed just one run this season is because he's not allowing any hard contact. And it's not just that he's gotten better in that area, it's that he's got dramatically better. Soriano's hard-hit rate this season is 30.9 percent, substantially down from last season's 48.2 percent and significantly better than the 37 percent league average. As a result, hitters have an average exit velocity of just 87 mph, down from 91.4 mph last season (his career average is 90.7 mph).
Why has this happened? Basically, it's because Soriano's stuff has gotten better and he's doing a better job of mixing his pitches. One highlight has been his sinker, which continues to be his most-used pitch and is performing better than ever.
Averaging about 97 mph, the sinker has completely neutralized hitters. Opponents are hitting just .056 against it, with an expected average of .177. A big reason? It's sinking more than ever. Soriano has averaged 27.1 inches of vertical drop on the pitch this season, up from 25.8 inches last season. It's a difference of less than 2 inches, but that can be the difference between hard contact and soft contact. Last season, batters hit .290 on the sinker with an expected slugging percentage of .413. This season's expected slug? Just .300.
But factor in Soriano's 98 mph four-seamer (which he's throwing a lot more), his splitter, his knuckle curve and his slider, and you've got a repertoire that can give hitters fits.
That's the challenge the Blue Jays will face Wednesday as Soriano looks to continue his early dominance.