No team has a worse record two weeks into the regular season than the Mariners. To say that was unexpected is an understatement. Seattle's roster is much of the same crew that reached the ALCS last season and came extremely close to winning the franchise's first pennant. The Mariners were predicted by many to be the best team in the American League this year.
But they have won just four of their 13 games, putting them in the AL cellar next to the 4-9 Tigers. The main culprit is an offense that has a paltry .184/.280/.301 slash line. That .581 OPS is 25 points worse than any other big league club. Three lineup linchpins -- Julio Rodríguez, Cal Raleigh and Josh Naylor are each sporting a sub-.500 OPS. They have been three of the 30 least valuable hitters in the Majors this year by batting run value, with Naylor at the very bottom with a -9 run value.
However, let's highlight J-Rod, who remains the face of the Mariners even in the wake of Raleigh's incredible 60-homer campaign last year. Rodríguez is the heart and soul of this offense. But he enters Friday with seven hits -- all singles! -- and 16 strikeouts in 49 at-bats. That's the most at-bats by any player without an extra-base hit. So, what's up with him? Let's dive in.
He's not getting many good pitches to hit
First, a couple of visuals:
The first photo is a heat map showing the location of all pitches against Rodríguez, and the second shows the pitch location and type to end each of his 56 plate appearances. Opposing pitchers have been consistent with their attack, keeping the ball low and/or inside. Only 42.1% of the pitches Rodríguez has seen have landed in the strike zone, which ranks 80th out of 89 players who have seen at least 200 pitches this year.
When J-Rod does get something in the strike zone, it's almost never center-cut. He has seen 214 pitches this season and just six have been right in the middle of the zone -- pitches otherwise known as "meatballs." No hitter in MLB has seen fewer meatballs (min. 200 pitches faced).
He's not making enough (good) contact
Rodríguez's strikeout rate (28.6%) and whiff rate (38.6%) have each increased by at least seven percentage points from 2025. That's obviously a problem, but so is what happens when he actually gets the bat on the ball. In part because of how well pitchers are keeping the ball down, Rodríguez is pounding out a bunch of grounders. His ground-ball rate last year was a career-high 48.2%. He's blown past that number through the first couple of weeks of this season; it's now at 57.6%.
When 62.5% of your plate appearances end with a strikeout or a ground ball, your batting line is probably not going to look great.
But should we actually be concerned?
Yes, Rodríguez is off to a very rough start this season. But we've been here before. Multiple times.
In March/April, J-Rod owns a career slash line of .220/.294/.332 and a 29.3% K rate. In every other month after April, he's got a .283/.338/.494 slash and a 23.1% K rate.
He hit .204 with a .544 OPS during the first April of his MLB career in 2022 -- and ended up winning AL Rookie of the Year.
In 2024, Rodríguez produced a 32.3% K rate through April with a .606 OPS. By year's end, his strikeout rate had settled to 25.4%, and he was 16% better than league average offensively by wRC+.
Last season, Rodríguez batted .207 with a .372 slugging percentage during the opening month. Those marks improved to .281 and .497, respectively, the rest of the way.
J-Rod's start to 2026 has been extremely poor. The Mariners obviously need him to be right if they are going to fulfill their lofty expectations, but let's maybe wait a few more weeks until we really begin to sound the alarm. J-Rod has shown an ability to fight out of these early-season funks. He could do it again.