Will Philly crowd control the narrative again? 3 keys for NLCS G2

October 17th, 2023

It is quite reasonable to already be exhausted in the best way possible after the first day of multiple League Championship Series games on Monday night. The Rangers took a commanding 2-0 series lead over the Astros in a game that turned out to be quite thrilling, and then the Phillies brought some early thunder against the D-backs and held on to win Game 1. But remember: We are just getting started. We’ll get two more games on Thursday, but first we have solo shots the next two nights, with Game 2 of the NLCS tonight in Philadelphia and Game 3 of the ALCS on Wednesday night in Arlington. You can expect both places to be, uh, very loud.

Tuesday’s lone game feels particularly pivotal in the NLCS: Either the D-backs steal home-field advantage or the Phillies take a commanding lead before heading west. Regardless, prepare to be exhausted again tomorrow. This is how this all works, after all.

Here's a look at three key storylines for tonight’s NLCS Game 2.

D-backs at Phillies
Phillies lead 1-0
Merrill Kelly vs. Aaron Nola
8:07 p.m. ET, TBS

Storyline No. 1: Will the Phillies ever lose at home?

There are all sorts of uncomfortable situations in which you might find yourself as a pitcher -- the one person standing in the middle of the field being watched and screamed at. But when you have thrown five pitches in your franchise’s first NLCS game in 22 years and two of them have been hit for homers by two of the most popular players on a team with a fanbase that has been making sounds louder than a jetliner taking off … well, that’s not a very fun place to be. It is to Zac Gallen’s credit, as well as his team’s, that he settled down a little after Citizens Bank Park went absolutely cuckoo banana pants following Kyle Schwarber’s and Bryce Harper’s first-inning homers in Game 1, but that they had to work so hard to get their bearings speaks to a fundamental truth of this postseason so far: The wildest, most brain-melting thing that’s happening every night is what this Philadelphia crowd is capable of. The Phillies are 5-0 so far at home this postseason and seem to levitate every time they play in front of their fans. If the D-backs are going to win, they’re going to have to take at least one in Philly. That’s going to be a daunting task.

Storyline No. 2: Can Merrill Kelly outduel Aaron Nola?

Yes, yes, it’s a game of bullpens these days. That was already evident in Game 1, where Zack Wheeler shut down 15 hitters in a row at one point and still got pulled after only 81 pitches. (Correctly, it should be said.) The idea of previewing games by focusing just on the starting pitchers feels like one that had its moment in 1991 and should probably be shelved. But ever since Kelly got shelled on Sept. 14 at Citi Field in an 11-1 loss to the Mets, he has been magnificent, giving up just four runs in four games, including zero in an 11-2 NLDS Game 1 win over the Dodgers that set the tone for that whole series. Kelly has been a much better pitcher the past two seasons than you probably realize — he has a 3.33 ERA over 63 starts in that span -- and, at the very least, is unlikely to give up two homers in the first inning to get that crowd going bonkers from the get-go. He’s actually a fascinating matchup with Nola, another pitcher known for compiling innings and being a consistent presence, albeit one who actually has been a little worse the last two seasons than Kelly. The goal of each of these guys is to keep this game under control for as long as possible. And don’t be surprised if one or both of them makes it deeper than we’ve gotten used to this postseason.

Storyline No. 3: Do the D-backs still feel like they’re above gravity?

Remember in those old Looney Tunes cartoons, when Wile E. Coyote is chasing the Road Runner and, despite having just run off a cliff, he is able to keep running while in mid-air as long as he doesn’t look down? This is the old 2007 Colorado Rockies principle. That team won 14 of 15 to close out the regular season, including a tiebreaker win to send them into the playoffs, and then kept soaring in the postseason, sweeping both the Phillies in the NLDS and the D-backs in the NLCS. It seemed like they would never lose. Then, in Game 1 of the World Series against the Red Sox, they looked down. They gave up three runs in the first inning, lost 13-1 and didn’t win another game. The D-backs were almost transcendently dominant in this postseason heading into Game 1 against the Phillies, smashing both the Brewers and the Dodgers like they were the 1927 Yankees crossed with the 1985 Bears. Then, Monday night … they looked down. Can they get that magic back? Or do they remember what gravity is now?