This story was excerpted from Keegan Matheson's Blue Jays Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
TORONTO -- We can debate who the Most Valuable Player on the 2026 Blue Jays is, but no player in this organization is doing their own, specific job better than Louis Varland.
He’s one of the best relievers in the sport, carrying a 0.84 ERA with 16 saves and 58 strikeouts over 43 innings into the midway point of the season. This isn’t just a great season, it’s one of the best we’ve ever seen from a reliever in Toronto.
Duane Ward’s club record of 45 saves is likely out of reach, given that Varland took over the closer’s role from Jeff Hoffman a month into the season, but his complete body of work could rival the very best we’ve seen from Ward, Tom Henke and just about anyone else who has run through those bullpen doors over the last 50 years.
Projecting Varland’s full 2026
With the Blue Jays reaching the 81-game mark tonight, Varland is worth 1.9 WAR (FanGraphs), and while they would love to find some opportunities to ease off his workload just a bit, good luck keeping Varland off the mound. If anyone can make 80 appearances as a hard-throwing closer in the modern game, it’s probably him.
Let’s do this the simple way, then. If you simply doubled Varland’s stats from this point on, this is what his season would look like:
Appearances: 76
Innings pitched: 86
Strikeouts: 116 (12.1 K/9)
WAR: 3.8
Let’s also be a bit more generous when it comes to projecting Varland’s saves, given that the closer’s job is now his permanently. Doubling Varland’s 16 saves and adding a few extra, he could easily land at 35 saves. Only Ward has saved 40 or more games in Blue Jays history.
This is a rudimentary way to look at things and we still need to factor in the risk of Varland’s extremely heavy workload, but this is what he’s on pace for. Framing this against some of the best seasons in Blue Jays history, he’s got a real shot.
Who Varland is chasing
Everyone is chasing Mark Eichhorn, whose 1986 season was worth 4.9 WAR out of the bullpen. This was one of the most unique seasons in Blue Jays history from the funky right-hander who threw sidearm -- nearly low enough to call it submarine style -- and baffled American League hitters with 157 innings over 69 appearances.
Eichhorn was a cheat code for the ‘86 Blue Jays. With a 1.72 ERA and 9.52 strikeouts per nine innings, this wasn’t a bulk reliever getting lucky, either. Eichhorn truly dominated that season, even if it looked a bit different than the peak seasons we remember from Ward and Henke, which feel more like a “reliever” in the sense we’re discussing Varland.
Best reliever seasons by WAR (FanGraphs):
1. Mark Eichhorn, 1986 -- 4.9 WAR
2. Duane Ward, 1991 -- 4.1 WAR
3. Tom Henke, 1986 -- 3.5 WAR
4. Tom Henke, 1989 -- 3.5 WAR
5. Tom Henke, 1987 -- 3.3 WAR
The first takeaway? Henke was really, really good. He’s still underrated -- at least outside of Toronto -- as one of the most dominant relievers of his era. Those years in which Henke and Ward overlapped at the back of the Blue Jays’ bullpen were truly special, with Ward routinely blowing past 100 innings as the setup man and, eventually, becoming Henke’s successor in the ninth.
Some others deserve consideration, too, including lefty B.J. Ryan, who came to Toronto on a five-year, $47 million deal, at the time the largest ever given to a reliever. In Ryan’s first season (2006), he posted a 1.37 ERA with 38 saves and a 2.7 WAR, good for an All-Star appearance.
If Varland can stay on this pace, he could easily take a run at Ward for the second-most valuable relief season in Blue Jays history. Henke’s prime years work as the best comp for Varland, though.
If you look at Henke’s peak seasons with his highest strikeout rates from 1986-89, those stat lines look a lot like what Varland could be approaching, right down to the heavy workloads. Varland has miles to go to reach Henke’s longevity, of course, with 311 career saves over 14 big league seasons, but Varland has an ERA starting with a zero at the midway point of the season.
With that, anything is possible. We’re watching greatness right now in the ninth inning. If Varland keeps this up, you’ll only need one hand to count those who have done it better in this city.