CHICAGO -- Hello, everyone. Welcome to my weekly mailbag. Apologies for missing last week. Opening Day was a little hectic. A lot of great questions. Let’s get started.
Thomas Fitzgerald (@FitzGThomas): Why’s Don Kelly pulling starters so early?
Jason Mackey: Thanks for the question, Thomas. It’s the hot topic with the Pirates right now after Kelly removed Mitch Keller Wednesday at 75 pitches through six scoreless innings.
Full transparency: I don’t love it. But my opinion also doesn’t matter, nor will I be held responsible if the Pirates wind up short on pitching this season. Just separating explanation from endorsement.
They’re being cautious because it’s early. This was Keller’s first start on regular rest. They want/need him to make 29 more, plus playoffs, and there’s not a ton of proven depth in the organization.
Put another way, they can’t afford to get Keller hurt.
Like it or hate it, it’s also the trend around baseball. Checking 13 random box scores from the past two days, the average pitch count for the starting pitcher was 86. Pretty much right where Kelly said Keller would be capped.
Was Kelly overly cautious? Maybe some. But given Keller’s importance, what’s behind him and what the Pirates aim to do this season, I get it. Just needed Justin Lawrence to pitch better.
Nick Shearer (@NickShearer04): Does the commitment to Konnor Griffin open the door to a Paul Skenes extension?
Jason Mackey: That would be a great outcome, Nick. Definitely want to start there.
Previously, Skenes’ stance has been that winning takes priority. Contract stuff is a non-topic until that happens. But let’s say the Pirates have a great season and make the playoffs. Don’t you at least have to have that conversation?
The problem becomes timing. Skenes will be three years from free agency after 2026. How many free-agent years would Skenes be willing to give up? And at what cost?
Given what he’s accomplished so far, he should far exceed Gerrit Cole (nine years, $324 million) and Yoshinobu Yamamoto (12 years, $325 million) when it comes to total free-agent dollars for a pitcher not named Shohei Ohtani.
We've also seen three pitchers cross the $40 million-a-year mark when it comes to average annual value, including Zack Wheeler ($42 million) as recently as March 2024.
Buying out those years would not be cheap, the same for arbitration awards that probably have a different starting point after Tarik Skubal’s record deal this winter ($32 million).
To sketch it out, let’s combine that with 25% above and below. That’s $96 million. Add two years of free agency, and we’re at $176 million in guarantees for two additional years.
Would love to be wrong. But tough to see how you thread the needle.
Buccos Ball (@Buccos_Ball): How serious are early warning signs, especially in the bullpen and defense?
Jason Mackey: Of the two, I’m more concerned about the defense than the bullpen. I’ll explain why.
Pirates relievers have a 3.91 ERA that ranks 18th in MLB. Their FIP (4.34) is 16th. Compared to talent, stuff and past performance, that feels low.
Dennis Santana, Gregory Soto, Isaac Mattson and Yohan Ramírez have been outstanding. Lawrence has either been unhittable or hit pretty hard.
We’re talking about two outings: New York and Wednesday. Assuming he stays healthy, Lawrence will bounce back. Mason Montgomery has also had some feast-or-famine to his appearances.
There are fair questions with Hunter Barco and José Urquidy -- whether Barco would be better served building volume and whether Urquidy has pitched well enough to stick — but I’m certainly not panicking.
Defense-wise, we came into the season with questions about the outfield. Ryan O’Hearn has actually been solid, while Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz are in the bottom 20% of 165 qualified outfielders in FanGraphs’ defensive runs saved. Third-base defense has also dropped with Jared Triolo out.
Is either a huge deal? No. Just saying I’d go defense over bullpen given who they have in the outfield.
Nick (@PiratesDieHard): With Triolo out for what looks to be an extended period of time, how do you expect playing time at third base to look?
Jason Mackey: Good question, Nick. Definitely something I’ll be monitoring. I think we’ll see a solid rotation of Nicks -- Gonzales and Yorke. But offense should drive decision-making. You hit, you play.
Mike Morgan (@buccoman): Are pitch counts for starters strictly controlled by the front office? Or does the manager have more flexibility?
Jason Mackey: Hardly anything in baseball these days is either/or. There’s plenty of collaboration and no shortage of conversations.
In other words, the Pirates went into yesterday’s game with a collaborative plan. There are some things Kelly might react to in-game but exceeded a predetermined pitch count on April 8 is not one of them.
Greg Hoyle (@GHoyle82): Is it too early to talk extension with Braxton Ashcraft?
Jason Mackey: He’s pitched pretty darn well, hasn’t he? Certainly wouldn’t be opposed.
Had an agent text me about this Wednesday after the Konnor Griffin news: Extensions can be contagious. Players are intrigued. Shows commitment from the front office. All good stuff.
No clue if anything gets done because I don’t even know if talks have started. But I can certainly think of worse candidates.
Seniman7 (@seniman7): How concerned are you about Marcell Ozuna?
Jason Mackey: I’m not. But appreciate the forum to discuss this.
They rested Ozuna yesterday to give him three days away. Reset, see you in Chicago. Maybe they told him to set off some sprinklers like in Bull Durham.
Secondarily, Ozuna’s under-the-hood numbers remain normal:
Bat speed in 2026: 73.1 mph
Bat speed average 2023-25: 73.4 mph
Chase rate in 2026: 27.2%
Chase rate 2023-25: 26.2%
Whiff rate in 2026: 27.9%
Whiff rate 2023-25: 28.0%
Ozuna’s exit velocity has dropped, as you’d expect. He also has the second-worst BABIP among regulars at .087.
I’m inclined to ride it out and expect a reversion to the mean.
Mark E (@MarkEofLateGenX): Thoughts on the City Connect uniforms?
Jason Mackey: In the past, City Connect uniforms — Pirates or otherwise -- never did much for me. I’d rather see teams wear throwbacks from the 1970s, '80s or '90s.
But these … man. I love ‘em. A.J. Burnett was right. They give off Batman vibes. It’s also more of a direct embrace to the franchise’s past, which I felt lacked with the last ones. Well done.
Jason Mackey: Jason.Mackey@pirates.com and @JMackey_PGH.