What Fried's return means for Braves' rotation

August 4th, 2023

This story was excerpted from Mark Bowman’s Braves Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

It’s fitting that ’s much-anticipated return to the Braves’ rotation will occur this afternoon at Wrigley Field. The historic stadium is also where Fried made his much-anticipated first career start six years ago.

“It’s always fun going to Wrigley,” Fried said. “There’s so much history there. You can feel it every time you watch a game or play there. It’s been a really long time, but I’m just really looking forward to Friday.”

Fried is returning to action three months after he strained his left forearm during a May 5 start against the Orioles. This was two days after Kyle Wright felt the right shoulder discomfort that began his still-current injured list stint.

But even Stephen King might not have been willing to pen the plot twist that followed the Braves losing one starter who finished second in last year’s National League Cy Young Award balloting and another who was MLB’s only 20-game winner last season.

Atlanta entered May 6 with a .667 winning percentage and a five-game lead over the Mets in the National League East. The club did stumble over the final couple weeks of May, but as Fried preps to make his celebrated return, the Braves still own a .651 winning percentage and a 12-game division lead over the Phillies. The Mets are 19 1/2 games back.

“It's been a long time coming,” said Fried. “These guys have been playing so well. I'm just seamlessly trying to fit in and just kind of ride the momentum they have created.”

With Fried back, the Braves can feel even better about a rotation that wasn’t altered at Tuesday’s Trade Deadline.

President of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos checked in on Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Eduardo Rodriguez, Jack Flaherty and any other starting pitcher who might have been available. But in the end, he determined it was best to stick with his internal options, which could include Wright at some point in September.

Anthopoulos said Bryce Elder’s past two starts -- in which he turned things around and surrendered just three earned runs in 13 innings -- didn’t make him any more comfortable about the rotation. But Anthopoulos stuck with this assessment even when I followed with, “So if he had extended his struggles to four bad starts, it wouldn’t have influenced your thinking?”

I get that you don’t base any significant decisions on a few starts. But you might be persuaded to do so when the metrics indicate a pitcher might be overachieving, as is the case with Elder right now.

Regardless, the Braves do have reason to feel good about Fried, Spencer Strider, Charlie Morton and Elder filling the rotation’s first four spots. Yonny Chirinos has pitched into the sixth inning four of the six starts he’s made this year. Time will tell if he keeps the fifth spot.

But whether it’s Chirinos, Michael Soroka, AJ Smith-Shawver, Allan Winans or Jared Shuster, the Braves just need somebody to eat innings while filling that fifth spot.

Wright began completing bullpen sessions this week. My guess is he would be ready to make a start in mid-September. He responded to this suggestion by saying he still thinks early September is a possibility. If Wright does come back that early, he might be used an opener or a bulk guy. Either way, he could prep himself for a potential bullpen role during the postseason.

It’s all hands on deck once October arrives. Legend has it that the Braves once won a World Series with Tucker Davidson and Dylan Lee both making a start in that Fall Classic.