Scherzer, Verlander lead Mets into series vs. rival Braves

June 6th, 2023

This story was excerpted from Anthony DiComo’s Mets Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

It’s time for Take 2 of the Mets-Braves rivalry.

Not much has changed since the initial meeting of these teams from April 28-May 1 at Citi Field. Atlanta is in first place, just as it was five weeks ago. New York is trailing behind but within reasonable striking distance, just as it was five weeks ago.

But a weekend sweep at the hands of the Blue Jays notwithstanding, the Mets do seem, in many ways, to be in markedly better shape than they were. For the first time this season, their rotation is mostly whole, with healthy and active. Despite finishing with a sub-.500 record in May (14-15), New York dropped just one game in the standings over that stretch.

If the Mets want to go on a run to establish themselves as the top team in the NL East, their three-game series at Truist Park this week seems like an apt time to do it.

Here’s how things will shake out this week in Atlanta.

The starting pitching matchups:

Tuesday: Carlos Carrasco vs. Bryce Elder
Wednesday: Scherzer vs. Charlie Morton
Thursday: Verlander vs. Spencer Strider

The Mets are always careful about where they place Scherzer and Verlander in their rotation; this time around, their twin aces just so happen to fall in line for the final two games in Atlanta. That’s key. Scherzer has been enjoying his best form of the season, with a 1.08 ERA over his past four starts. He’s seen an uptick in velocity over that stretch and appears fully healthy. Verlander hasn’t looked quite as sharp since coming off the injured list in early May, but everything is relative. The former MVP has managed to keep the Mets in games despite diminished metrics.

No matter how Scherzer and Verlander fare, their opponents should be up to the challenge. Elder was one of the league’s best pitchers in May, going undefeated with a 1.72 ERA over six starts. The Braves chose to skip Jared Shuster, a rookie, in favor of Morton, so that they could bring back Strider on regular rest. The latter has been a revelation since breaking permanently into Atlanta’s rotation a year ago, though the Mets gave him trouble in their last meeting.

Players to contain:

Both Ronald Acuña Jr. and Sean Murphy enjoyed their time in Flushing earlier this season. Before leaving the third game of that series due to a minor injury, Acuña collected four hits in eight at-bats, drove in two runs and scored four times. He was a menace. Murphy, likewise, contributed multiple two-hit games, including a two-homer, six-RBI explosion that sunk the Mets in the first half of a May 1 doubleheader. He’s never homered against any of the Mets’ three pitching probables, though the sample sizes are small.

Murphy, at least, has cooled a bit over the last month. Acuña has not. (Does he ever?)

Recent history:

The Mets lost two of three last time around and were notably swept during their most recent trip to Truist Park from Sept. 30-Oct. 2 last season. That cost them the division. Overall, the Mets have lost seven of their past nine games to the Braves, including five of six in Atlanta. But they had won six of eight against their division rivals before that downturn, which hints at the fickleness of such statistics.

One good series can change everything, including the tenor of the division.