Is this Mets prospect the next Altuve?

September 15th, 2023

The Top 100 callups aren't stopping, with outfielders Pete Crow-Armstrong (Cubs) and Heston Kjerstad (Orioles) debuting in the last four days. That makes 38 players from the preseason Top 100 who have reached the Majors for the first time in 2023.

On to your questions ...

We received four questions about Mets shortstop/center fielder Jett Williams this week, which makes answering one an Inbox mandate. The 14th overall pick in the 2022 Draft out of a Texas high school, he has batted .265/.429/.458 with 13 homers and 44 steals while rising from Single-A to Double-A at age 19. He and fellow 2022 prep first-rounder Termarr Johnson (Pirates) are the first teenagers to draw 100 walks in a Minor League season since JD Closser in 1999 and the first to do so entirely in full-season ball since Mike Whitlock in 1996.

Williams, No. 3 on the Mets' Top 30 Prospects list and No. 78 on the Top 100, was a scout favorite in last year's Draft as a 5-foot-6, 175-pound dynamo who raked on the high school showcase circuit. He has good feel for the barrel, some sneaky power and at least plus speed. There are mixed reports on his arm, which earns fringy to solid grades, so there's some question as to whether he remains at shortstop or moves to second base or center.

While Williams is built along the lines of Altuve, he's a different type of player. Altuve made much more consistent contact in the Minors (11 percent strikeout rate versus 21 percent for Williams so far) and developed into a 25-30 homer guy, which is more than Williams will. But Williams does have a lofty ceiling as a potential on-base machine with 15-homer pop and more speed and defensive versatility than Altuve had at the same stage.

I don't want to read too much into four Double-A starts, but at age 19 Snelling has posted a 1.56 ERA with 19 strikeouts in 17 1/3 innings there. Signed for a well over-slot $3 million as a 2022 supplemental first-rounder, the Padres' No. 3 prospect and MLB's No. 60, has gone 11-3 with a 1.82 ERA, .216 opponent average and 118/34 K/BB ratio in 103 2/3 frames in his pro debut. His ERA is the lowest in the Minors for any pitcher with 100 innings this season.

A four-star linebacker recruit as a Nevada high schooler, Snelling realistically could make his big league debut next year. While 2025 seems more likely given his age, he's a physical 6-foot-3 left-hander with a solid 92-97 mph fastball, advanced feel for a low-80s breaking ball and a repeatable delivery that provides plenty of strikes. He still needs to improve the action and consistency with his low-80s changeup, but it does generate a lot of ground-ball contact and has helped him thrive against right-handers.

What do you make of Twins outfielder Emmanuel Rodriguez's season? He got off to a terrible start and got hurt, was only able to raise his batting average to .240 by the end of the season, yet he still led the High-A Midwest League in OPS (.863). At the same time, he had a huge home/road split with a 1.001 OPS in Cedar Rapids and .704 elsewhere. He's one of my favorite prospects but I'm not sure how to process all of that.

--Warren J., New London, Conn.

I'd really like to see what Rodriguez could do with a fully healthy season. The Twins' No. 3 prospect has hit .242/.413/.495 with 35 homers, 40 steals and 172 walks in 183 games since signing for $2.5 million out of the Dominican Republic in 2019, but he missed the last three months of the 2022 season with a torn meniscus in his right knee and lost nearly a month this year to an abdominal strain.

The home/road splits don't really bother me because Rodriguez's big raw power, patience and solid speed should play anywhere. He has a chance to stick in center field and his plus arm definitely will fit nicely in right field if he has to move to a corner. The main concern is that he struck out 134 times in 99 games this year and carries a 30 percent whiff rate for his career.

Rodriguez works deep counts, which partially explains his strikeouts, but he'll need to refine his approach to succeed against more advanced pitching. He ranks No. 48 on MLB Pipeline's Top 100 Prospects list, a testament to his upside, yet he still needs to prove he can make consistent contact and stay healthy.

The Dodgers are loaded with catching prospects and they're not exactly hurting in the big leagues either with Will Smith. Dalton Rushing (No. 43) and Diego Cartaya (No. 56) are Top 100 Prospects, while Thayron Liranzo led the Single-A California League in homers (24), extra-base hits (50), slugging (.562) and OPS (.962). Yeiner Fernandez and Hunter Feduccia are two more catchers on our Dodgers Top 30, and Jesus Galiz is another young backstop who bears watching.

Cartaya has had a rough season in Double-A, batting .189/.278/.379 at age 22, but he still has the highest ceiling of this group. He draws Salvador Perez comparisons because of his size (6-foot-3, 219 pounds) and tools, and he still has 30-homer upside, flashes well above-average arm strength and has the physical ability to become a solid defender. He's a longer way from reaching that potential than he was a year ago, however.

Rushing has the highest floor among Dodgers catching prospects. While his numbers took a downturn after he suffered a concussion when he was hit in head by a bat in mid-June, he's the best bet of this group to hit for average and power and also draws a ton of walks. He may not become more than an adequate catcher, but he'll work hard to maximize his ability and has fine leadership skills.