Anthony DiComo, MLB.com’s Mets beat reporter, held an “Ask Me Anything” this week on Reddit with Mets fans at r/NewYorkMets. This mailbag features excerpted questions and answers from that event (some lightly edited for clarity). The full AMA is available to read here.
Personally, I take zero stock in Spring Training results. However, I can see why some fans would have strong reactions to both the good and bad of Mark Vientos and Carson Benge. My question is more what the organization thinks about Spring Training results. Are they worried about Vientos? Do they expect Benge to hit the ground running in the Majors this year? Or are they like me and in complete, “let’s wait and see what happens when the games actually matter” mode?
I think Vientos is a great example of how Spring Training statistics can lie to us. Did you know that among the 308 batters with at least 25 balls in play this spring, Vientos ranks 27th in average exit velocity? He's been crushing balls directly into gloves. He’s not striking out much. Of course, Vientos' spring looks slightly better after he homered Saturday against ... Gus Varland, a 29-year-old journeyman with a 4.82 career Major League ERA. I would not put any stock at all into the spring Vientos had, and I wouldn't be surprised if he proves productive in a part-time role, starting against left-handed pitchers.
Same goes for Benge, who obviously has all the potential in the world and spent most of Spring Training floating around a .400 batting average. His plate approach has been excellent, but there's been little power to speak of. I'm not going to sit here and say I expect Benge to be a .300 hitter in the big leagues immediately (if ever). The only thing I'm confident in saying, in fact, is that Vientos will perform better than he did in Grapefruit League play and Benge will perform worse. It would be lunacy to expect otherwise from either player.
Is there a realistic path, with everyone staying healthy, where Brett Baty gets 400-500 at-bats, playing rotating positions “every day,” à la Jeff McNeil? I know the Mets like his bat and versatility, but is that fan service or actual admiration for him?
I think Mets officials really turned a corner on Baty given his production late last year. The Bo Bichette signing should not preclude Baty from starting every day against right-handed pitchers. Vientos will sub in against lefties. If Baty continues to hit, the Mets will find him at-bats at first, second, third, right field ... wherever. The only thing that will keep him out of the lineup is if he shows that the second half of last season was a fluke.
One of my concerns going into this season is Sean Manaea’s striking loss of velocity. Is this something that other pitchers have overcome through relying on effective breaking and off-speed pitches or is there a great deal of pressure riding on him finding his earlier velo?
This question came in before the Mets announced Manaea is heading to the bullpen, so I think Carlos Mendoza & Co. sort of answered it with their actions. I will say this: Manaea has a good enough off-speed arsenal that he can succeed with less velocity than many pitchers. But 88 mph may be pushing things too far. If he can get back up to the 92-93 mph range, it just gives Manaea so much more margin for error. He knows that, and so do the Mets.
If Benge makes the Opening Day roster -- and it seems likely he will -- would it seem like they're rushing him to you? Low ISO, high BABIP in Spring Training.
I have the same concerns you do, but the Mets are basing this more on the quality of his at-bats. He works counts and seems to have a great two-strike approach. I talked to hitting coach Troy Snitker about this exact subject last week, and his answer was that he'd rather have a young hitter with an approach like that over one who shows more power but also more swing-and-miss. The power should come as Benge learns the league and grows a bit more comfortable. At least, that's the theory. We'll see how it all works out. I'd be lying to you if I said I had the answer.
Thoughts on Jonah Tong’s development over the winter, plus areas that still need to be worked out/reworked?
He had a rough spring, no doubt about it. So much of the damage came off Tong's fastball and cutter, which he'll need to command better if he wants to get ahead in counts and allow his changeup to be the devastating out pitch it was in the Minors. It's far, far too early to judge Tong, who still has so much potential. But there are clear areas he must improve, which for me begin with his fastball command.
Which of the prospects who won’t be on the Opening Day roster have the best chance of impacting the Major League club at some point this year?
Probably Ryan Lambert and Dylan Ross. The Mets are going to need relief help at some point, and those two look like potential dynamos. Also ... this falls more into a September callup category, but imagine A.J. Ewing or Nick Morabito coming off the bench to steal bags in a pennant race? Could be super fun.