It’s July, which means All-Star month and the colloquial end of the first half of the season. It certainly isn’t too early to start trying to project what the October postseason field will look like. Are our current division leaders for real? Here’s a look at those current leaders and what the playoff field could look like. Note, all stats below exclude the shortened 2020 season and instead look at full seasons for the impact and postseason implications.
What it means to be in first place
Since 1996, the first full season with at least one Wild Card, 103 of 156 eventual division champions held at least a share of that division lead entering July 1. That’s 66 percent of division winners.
Take note, Rays, Twins, Rangers, Braves, Reds and D-backs fans -- those are the teams that currently lead their divisions.
Last season, three of the six division leaders on July 1 went on to win their divisions. In the American League, the Yankees and Astros each won their divisions, while the Twins, who led the AL Central entering July, missed the postseason entirely. In the NL, the Dodgers won their division, but the Mets and Brewers, who led the East and Central entering July, respectively, did not. The Mets were a Wild Card, but the Brewers missed the playoffs.
Since 1996, 17 of the 26 World Series winners, excluding 2020, led their divisions entering July. Before the Astros last year, the last winner in a full season to do so was the 2018 Red Sox.
The AL East and AL Central
We’ve covered the fact that the AL East could be historically strong, but it bears a recap here. The division has a combined .573 winning percentage, which would be the highest by a division in a single season. The current record for a five-team division? .541 by the 2022 AL East.
Four of five AL East teams are above .500, with the Red Sox just a game under. If you’re curious, the latest into a season that an entire division has been above .500 was the NL East in 2005, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. All five teams were over .500 through Oct. 1, the second-to-last day of the season. The Nationals then lost their finale to finish 81-81.
On the flip side, the Twins lead the Central at 41-42, a .494 winning percentage. The lowest winning percentage by a division winner in a full season was .506, by the 82-80 Padres in the 2005 NL West.
This year’s leaders overall and turnover potential
Of this year’s current division leaders entering July, each has had at least a share of that lead entering July at least once since 2015, except the Reds – who were last in this spot in 2012. Each of the three current AL leaders and the Braves have won their divisions at least once since 2016. The Reds last did so in 2012, the D-backs in ‘11.
Of the current leaders, only Atlanta won its division last year. Since the split to six divisions, there’s just one instance of a year-to-year turnover of at least five winners. That from 2006 to 2007, when all six division winners were different – with the Yankees, Twins, A's, Mets, Cardinals and Padres in ‘06 and the Red Sox, Cleveland, Angels, Phillies, Cubs and D-backs in ‘07.
What’s next
Even three months in, there’s still plenty of baseball left to be played. But fans of the six division leaders can take some comfort in knowing that historically, more than half of those teams have gone on to win their divisions. And for fans of teams that aren’t in playoff position, there’s still plenty of hope -- while 66% of these teams go on to win their divisions, that means 34% do not, too. Only time will tell.