We did it again.

We went into the opening weekend of the 2024 MLB season simply ecstatic that baseball was back, knowing full well that it’s going to take a heck of a lot more than a few days to reveal the true essence and experience of the long season.

Ah, but then pitches were thrown, bats were swung, statistics were posted, and, when put to the test by results unfolding right in front of us, we couldn’t help ourselves:

We overreacted.

• Ranking the best moments from an electric Opening Day

Don’t feel alone. We all do it. So in an early season tradition unlike any other, we went on X (the World Capital of Overreactions) to see how people were responding to various outcomes from the first weekend and to issue judgment on whether their observations are appropriate or, um, a bit much.

(Some posts have been edited for clarity and grammar and whatnot.)

“Juan Soto: Made for New York.” -- @Norsea_

Well, first of all, Soto’s fantastic first impression (9-for-17 with a go-ahead HR on Saturday and the game-winning knock off the great Josh Hader on Sunday) came in Houston, not New York. But anyway, here is an incomplete list of places Soto was made to play baseball:

New York
Houston
Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic
Washington, D.C. (sorry for the reminder, Nats fans)
Chicago
Los Angeles
Minneapolis (.476 career average at Target Field!)
Philadelphia
London
San Diego (sorry for the reminder, Padres fans)
De Soto, Missouri
De Soto, Kansas
De Soto, Iowa
Soto del Real, Spain
Jupiter (the city in Florida)
Jupiter (the planet)
Cooperstown

New Yorkers are a particularly parochial sort who presume that players have to prove they can handle the prestige and pressures that come with the pinstripes.

But this isn’t Joey Gallo we’re talking about here, OK? This is a guy who is the same age Aaron Judge was in his Rookie of the Year season, and he’s already accrued almost 30 career WAR. So let’s flip this around and see if New York (Yankees or Mets) is made for Juan Soto and can entice him to stay beyond this season, or if the Big Apple will be relegated to a brief, single-season mention on his (seemingly inevitable) Hall of Fame plaque.

Verdict: Overreaction (but more general praise of Soto as an AL MVP in the making is an acceptable reaction)

“[The Astros are] dead on arrival this year. Oh well, it was a good run. They won’t win 80 games this year, and getting Josh Hader was a total waste.” -- @jbwynn5

And here’s the other half of the Yankees’ wonderful weekend.

Houston’s run is going to come to an end eventually. And maybe, with the rotation perhaps overly reliant on the triumphant return of a 41-year-old coming off a sore shoulder in Justin Verlander and the bullpen having gained Hader but lost a lot of other key innings, that will happen this year. The strength of the Rangers and Mariners means the Astros can’t just waltz their way into October.

But for now, the Astros have still earned our assumption that they could finish fifth in the AL West and still somehow reach the ALCS. Old habits die hard.

Verdict: Overreaction

“Wait. I thought the Phillies were ranked #1 for best bullpen. Good job, bullpen! You only gave up nine runs in two innings.” -- @JalenReagorSZN

Who was foolish enough to list the Phillies at No. 1 among bullpens?

Oh, wait… it was me! But not really. If you were astute enough to actually, you know, read that piece (or the fine print at the bottom of the @MLB social post listing the “top bullpens”), you would note that this was based entirely on FanGraphs’ preseason bullpen WAR projections. The point was to discuss why those projections might be right or wrong, and, well, if the entire season were built out of Opening Day, they would have been very, very wrong about the Phillies.

But obviously, the only thing more ridiculous than trying to predict or project bullpen performance is drawing conclusions from one weekend in which the ‘pen allowed 15 runs in 11 2/3 innings. This is not the disastrous Phillies bullpen of 2020 or 2021. Or at least, it shouldn’t be. It has depth in power arms and ranked in the top 10 last year in fWAR, ERA, left on base percentage and strikeout rate.

So chill out, Philly fans. And if things do go south, well, blame it on the computer, not me (for once)!

Verdict: Overreaction

“This Orioles team plus Coby Mayo and Jackson Holliday (and a healthy Kyle Bradish) may quite literally be unstoppable.” -- @gmondiff

Though the O’s didn’t complete a sweep of the Angels on Sunday, they nevertheless were at the center of the baseball universe this weekend. They had a new owner, David Rubenstein, buying people beers at Pickles Pub. They had a new ace, Corbin Burnes, shoving on the mound. And their blossoming lineup was so productive that they compelled the Angels to hold a team meeting just two games into the season (which, given what we know about the projections for the Halos this season, did not feel like an overreaction).

The wounds of routinely finishing fifth are fresh enough that O’s fans deserve to relish in moments like this. Raise those pints at Pickles!

Verdict: Not an O-verreaction.

“Don’t want to overreact, but I think we may see a Pirates World Series title, a Ke’Bryan Hayes MVP Award and a Jared Jones Cy Young in the same season.” -- @JakeCrouseMLB

Our guy Jake (a Pittsburgh-based MLB.com writer and producer) did not specify which year. So this is admissible!

But actually – and I promise I’m not just saying this because the Pirates are 4-0 for just the fourth time in the last 40 years -- I do believe the Pirates can complicate the NL Central a bit this season. Jared Jones is here, Paul Skenes is looming, Oneil Cruz is healthy, and things are looking up.

Verdict: Appropriate reaction

“Shane Bieber is BACK, ladies and gentlemen.” -- @brngnthepayne

Bieber, the AL Cy Young winner in the shortened 2020 season, has had to face a lot of questions about injuries and velocity decline the past few years. As a pending free agent on a team known to move top arms before they reach free agency, he is a particular source of fascination in the industry. And he was magnificent on Opening Day against the A’s, with six scoreless innings in which he allowed just four hits and a walk with 11 strikeouts. His four-seam velocity was up a tick over last year’s average (from 91.3 to 92.3 mph).

Yes, this was against the A’s. So, you know, we’ll see.

But something very fun for me is that I wrote one of those typical Spring Training pieces in which a pitcher talks about working on a pitch (in this case, Bieber and the changeup), and then he went out in his first start … and actually successfully used the pitch (three strikeouts, 57.1% whiff rate on 13 changeups thrown)! In 20 years of baseball coverage, this has happened maybe like three times. Maybe that makes it a little too personal, but I really do think the Biebs, who altered his training in the offseason, is smart, motivated and healthy enough to have a resurgent 2024.

Verdict: Appropriate reaction

“I speak FOR ALL METS FANS when I say the season is over!” -- @n1troz_

After spending a record amount of money just to finish with 75 wins last season and then not making any marquee additions this winter, the Mets were projected by FanGraphs and PECOTA to be roughly a .500 team. And see, this is why computers can’t be Mets fans. They’re too rational. You can’t project .500. You either have to go all-in on the Harrison Bader/J.D. Martinez/Luis Severino era and forecast a major surge in the standings or assume everything will go off the rails (again) and peg them to ’62 Mets kinda stuff.

But for the record, no, the post above did not actually speak on behalf of all Mets fans after a weekend in which the Mets were swept by the Brewers and already started throwing at people. Some of those fans understand you cannot declare a season over until, like, April 3, at the earliest.

While I am personally not exactly bullish on the Mets this season (I don’t like the word “shoulder” next to Kodai Senga’s name), consulting the computers seems a better option right now than consulting the entertainingly dubious and dubiously entertaining world of Mets X for a rest-of-season projection.

Verdict: Overreaction

“I know it’s the Rockies, but the D-backs offense looks scary.” -- @SeVA_wx

Well, yes, the D-backs’ strong first impression at the plate was against the Rockies.

But this is a different D-backs offense than the one that sputtered for multiple months in 2023, only to get rip-roaring hot in October, only to go cold in the clutch at home in the World Series. They’ve traded in some speed for some slug, with Eugenio Suárez, Joc Pederson and Randal Grichuk aboard. And if they can get more maturation from Gabriel Moreno and Alek Thomas, they have additional offensive upside. They landed on our top 10 lineups list … and as we already discussed, those lists are never wrong!

• D-backs make Opening Day history with 14-run frame

So while “scary” might be a stretch, the D-backs look better equipped to avoid the prolonged run-scoring rut that nearly cost them a playoff spot last year.

Verdict: Only a mild overreaction

“Justin Steele hurt? Cubs season is over. PAIN.” -- @PapiGing

Well, there was definitely pain involved for Steele, who strained his left hammy in the very first start of what many thought might be a Cy Young-caliber season. Steele made The Leap over the past two years, posting an ERA+ that was 40% better than league average. Alas, he won’t be doing any leaping for a while. He’ll be out at least a month.

Is this a season-killer? No, absolutely not. But I don’t blame Cubs fans for fretting this one. Because a rotation low on strikeout stuff, already without Jameson Taillon (back) and perhaps counting on Shota Imanaga to be a top-of-the-rotation type (as opposed to the solid mid-rotation option many evaluators think he’ll be) looks iffy to me. This is a big early test for the Cubbies.

Verdict: Understandable overreaction

“Royce Lewis is really going to be another Byron Buxton.” -- @RonWi11

The Twins entered the season with manager Rocco Baldelli proclaiming “the possibilities are almost endless” with Lewis, Buxton and Carlos Correa all healthy, and their health was the primary reason why Minnesota ranked ninth in that aforementioned top lineups list.

So yes, Lewis’ Opening Day injury stinks for him, for the Twins and for all of us, ultimately. Because this could be one of the bright young stars of the game, if only his body would cooperate. The No. 1 overall pick in the 2017 Draft, Lewis had overcome multiple ACL tears in his knee to become a grand slam machine and playoff hero last year. For him to suffer what is being dubbed a “severe” right quad strain that will cost him months, not weeks, is just cruel.

And unfortunately, yes, this latest setback does threaten to saddle Lewis, who has made five trips to the injured list against just 71 career games played, with the same reputation as that of Buxton, whose uber-talented yet injury-prone track record is all too real. It’s just an unavoidable comparison right now. Here’s hoping the storyline shifts in the second half.

Verdict: Appropriate reaction

“I don’t want to tell you how to feel, but there are approximately 159 more baseball games, and some of you aren’t gonna make it if morale doesn’t improve.” -- @HelenRuthsGhost

Now that’s keeping it 100. Or actually, 159.

Verdict: The only perfect reaction.