I’m not the only one hearing the ticking clock get louder, right?
It happens every year when we’re just one month away from the MLB Draft. There are still games to scout, from the College World Series starting in Omaha on Friday to high school playoff games (highly touted Massachusetts prep lefty Brody Bumila is pitching in his state championship game on Saturday, for example), and teams have yet to meet to truly line up their boards. But that doesn’t mean things aren’t moving when trying to figure out what will happen on Draft day (July 11).
2026 MLB Draft presented by Nippon Express
July 11-12:
The top of this week’s projection is very similar to the work Jim Callis did a week ago. In fact, the top eight are identical, though I will lay out some alternates along the way that very well could come to pass. It’s very rare, and unlikely, to see the top seven go according to chalk, meaning they go in the exact order we have them ranked in our Top 200 Draft Prospects list, but that’s how I see it as of this moment.
1. White Sox: Roch Cholowsky, SS, UCLA (No. 1)
Yes, this seemed like a slam dunk for so long. Yes, it still very much could happen and there’s no definitive intel to change course for the time being, and many in the industry still feel certain that they’ll stick with the UCLA star. Others think many scouts in the organization prefer Grady Emerson while Vahn Lackey’s performance has moved him more firmly into consideration. One evaluator broke down the odds like this: Cholowsky - 40 percent; Emerson - 40 pct; Lackey - 20 pct.
2. Rays: Grady Emerson, SS, Fort Worth (Texas) Christian HS (No. 2)
While those Tyler Bell rumors persist, I’m sticking with what we’ve had in this spot since we started our mock draft season, with Emerson getting the nod over Lackey for now. If Chicago nabs Emerson, then obviously Cholowsky could go here.
3. Twins: Vahn Lackey, C, Georgia Tech (No. 3)
The Twins wouldn’t mind if Cholowsky or Emerson landed here, but with them gone, it appears the main choices are still Lackey vs. Jackson Flora, the top pitcher in the class. They could conceivably consider Lackey’s Georgia Tech teammate Drew Burress and if they wanted to go the prep route, Jacob Lombard remains on their radar.
4. Giants: Jacob Lombard, SS, Gulliver Prep, Miami (No. 4)
With the top three gone, Lombard – George’s son and Yankees prospect George Jr.’s brother – gets the edge over Flora or perhaps Burress. The Giants could consider going the high school pitcher route with south Florida lefty Gio Rojas.
5. Pirates: Jackson Flora, RHP, UC Santa Barbara (No. 5)
The Pirates remain in react mode with what happens above them, and they obviously would have interest in any of the top four. Flora could add to their already-deep stable of pitching. Burress could be in the mix and there might be interest in Eric Booth Jr. The organization did have some luck with a toolsy high schooler from Mississippi a couple of years ago, if I recall.
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6. Royals: Eric Booth Jr., OF, Oak Grove HS, Hattiesburg, Miss. (No. 6)
The main names that come up when discussing this pick are Booth and Rojas, and those might still be the “favorites.” This time around, I’ll have them stick with the bat here, and they can get their prep lefty in the comp round. This could be a wild card spot, as the Royals are not afraid to go outside of the box, and they could consider intriguing two-way prepster Jared Grindlinger, whom KC might let hit, or even Arizona State lefty Cole Carlon.
7. Orioles: Drew Burress, OF, Georgia Tech (No. 7)
This is the last spot I’m sticking with chalk, and it continues to be a point where things could veer and deals are struck. Burress is the next best college bat and the Orioles have dipped into that bucket with their first pick in six of the last seven Drafts. There are those who think the O’s are really on Alabama’s Justin Lebron, who is super-toolsy, but enigmatic.
8. Athletics: Chris Hacopian, 2B, Texas A&M (No. 10)
While the A’s are focusing on college hitters, and could consider any of the ones in this five-pick run from 7-11 (though Lebron seems less likely), they’ll also have discussions about the college pitching options. That’s the direction they went in last year with Jamie Arnold and this year they could consider Carlon and Arkansas lefty Hunter Dietz.
9. Braves: Ryder Helfrick, C, Arkansas (No. 13)
The Braves don’t shy away from high schoolers in the first round, and there’s definite interest in Rojas here. But they also haven’t picked this high since 2019, when they went with college catcher Shea Langeliers. Other college bats like Bell could come into the conversation as well.
10. Rockies: Tyler Bell, SS, Kentucky (No. 20)
The Rockies can be as creative as they’d like to be in the early going, with three picks in the top 38. Right now, it does sound like college bats are getting most of the attention with this selection. They like Helfrick and it might be a tossup if he and Bell are both available. With him off the board, I’ll give them the Kentucky shortstop.
11. Nationals: Justin Lebron, SS, Alabama (No. 9)
If you’ve read any mocks, the name that’s brought up the most here is Grindlinger, and he very well could be in the mix. But I’m just not convinced, and feel like a college hitter is how they might go. Lebron has the best overall toolset in the class, albeit with spotty performance, but we could look back and find that he was a steal at this point or below.
12. Angels: Cole Carlon, LHP, Arizona State (No. 25)
The Angels go college in the first round pretty much every year these days, and there’s no reason to think they’ll do anything differently. They’re also not afraid to take a guy the industry might have a touch lower (See Bremner, Tyler in 2025 and Moore, Christian in ‘24). Carlon would fit that description, though his name is coming up above here. They could also consider Dietz or Florida’s Liam Peterson on the pitching side; LSU outfielder Derek Curiel or Mississippi State infielder Ace Reese on the hitting side of the ledger.
13. Cardinals: Derek Curiel, OF, Louisiana State (No. 12)
It’s mostly college names coming up here for the Cardinals, with Curiel getting the nod over Reese or Virginia outfielder AJ Gracia. They could also consider a college pitcher like Coastal Carolina’s Cameron Flukey. The one exception to the college talk could be Grindlinger.
14. Marlins: Cameron Flukey, RHP, Coastal Carolina (No. 11)
The Marlins have taken a hitter with their first selection the last two years, but they might be more intrigued by the pitching options this time around. Flukey could be atop that list, while there’s also interest in Tennessee’s Tegan Kuhns. If Rojas is around, he’ll be discussed as well. They haven’t ruled out the hitters who are available – Grindlinger or Georgia’s Trevor Condon on the prep side, Reese, Gracia or TCU outfielder Sawyer Strosnider from the college crop.
15. Diamondbacks: Gio Rojas, LHP, Stoneman Douglas HS, Parkland, Fla. (No. 8)
There has been buzz that the D-backs would love to find a left-handed pitcher if it fits, and they might be thrilled if Rojas got to this point. They also like Grindlinger, and could be one of the teams that prefer him on the mound. If they wanted to go the college arm route, they might kick the tires on right-hander Peterson, while Gracia is likely a college bat they will discuss.
16. Rangers: Jared Grindlinger, OF/LHP, Huntington Beach (Calif.) HS (No. 18)
It’s been mostly hitters coming up in this spot, and the Rangers might be happy if Lebron makes it down this far. But if things go this route, they might be more intrigued by one of the prep hitters available. They do like Grindlinger in the box and they might also have interest in Condon.
17. Astros: AJ Gracia, OF, Virginia (No. 17)
With picks here and at 28, the Astros can add two quality players to the system before the second round begins. And it sounds like they’re mostly looking at college bats, which they did three years in a row before going the prep hitter route last year. Gracia or his Virginia teammate Eric Becker could come into play here, while Reese, Strosnider or Georgia catcher Daniel Jackson could be discussed.
18. Reds: Liam Peterson, RHP, Florida (No. 14)
All demographics are still in play for the Reds here. Peterson and Dietz would be the college pitchers who will be discussed, while Bumila, the big prep lefty, is the name in the high school arm column. The main name that comes up in terms of high school hitters is Condon, and they will also talk about Becker here.
19. Guardians: Ace Reese, 3B, Mississippi State (No. 21)
The Guardians have taken a left-handed hitter in the first round in each of the last four Drafts, three of them from the college ranks. They could very well go down that road again this year, with Reese or Strosnider the leading contenders, with Condon a possibility if they look at the high school crop.
20. Red Sox: Hunter Dietz, LHP, Arkansas (No. 15)
The Red Sox would consider Strosnider here should they want to go down the college bat path, while there are both high school hitters (Condon, Bo Lowrance) and pitchers (Bumila) to discuss. But Boston did a deep dive into the SEC pitching pool last year (seven out of their first 10 picks were arms from the top collegiate conference), so Dietz could make a lot of sense here.
21. Padres: Brody Bumila, LHP, Bishop Feehan HS, Attleboro, Mass. (No. 19)
Sometimes you make picks according to type, and the Padres do love their high-upside high schoolers; they haven’t taken a college player with their first selection since 2016.
22. Tigers: Trevor Condon, OF, Etowah HS, Woodstock, Ga. (No. 22)
The Tigers also have a type: high school left-handed hitters. And there are plenty of them who fit the bill for them to consider at this stage, with Condon potentially atop a list that includes Lowrance or Cole Prosek, while Aiden Ruiz could give them a switch-hitting option.
23. Cubs: Cade Townsend, RHP, Mississippi (No. 27)
The safer bet here, and most of the talk, is around college pitching. In addition to Townsend, that list could include Kuhns or Southern Cal lefty Mason Edwards.
24. Mariners: Bo Lowrance, 3B, Christ Church Episcopal HS, Greenville, S.C. (No. 38)
There are some who think Kuhns doesn’t get past this spot, and the Mariners are undoubtedly digging in. And if they wanted to go the college hitter route, Texas outfielder Aiden Robbins could come into play. The Mariners do like their high school hitters, having taken three in a row in the first round from 2021-23 and Lowrance’s left-handed stick could be a fit.
25. Brewers: Sawyer Strosnider, OF, Texas Christian (No. 16)
Should they want to go the college arm route, Kuhns and Edwards would be the options, while Strosnider might get the edge over guys like Robbins or Jackson.
Supplemental first round
26. Braves: Tegan Kuhns, RHP, Tennessee (No. 24)
27. Mets: Daniel Jackson, C, Georgia (No. 39)
28. Astros: Zion Rose, OF, Louisville (No. 31)
29. Giants: Mason Edwards, LHP, Southern California (No. 34)
30. Royals: Carson Bolemon, LHP, Southside Christian HS, Simpsonville, S.C. (No. 23)
31. Diamondbacks: Eric Becker, SS, Virginia (No. 26)
32. Cardinals: Logan Reddemann, RHP, UCLA (No. 28)
33. Rays: Aiden Ruiz, SS, The Stony Brook (N.Y.) School (No. 36)
34. Pirates: Cole Prosek, 3B/C, Magnolia Heights HS, Senatobia, Miss. (No. 33)
35. Yankees: Logan Schmidt, LHP, Ganesha HS, Pomona, Calif. (No. 43)
36. Phillies: Coleman Borthwick, RHP, South Walton HS, Santa Rosa Beach, Fla. (No. 35)
37. Rockies: Jack Radel, RHP, Notre Dame (No. 45)