In case you missed it, the MLB Pipeline crew has been very busy re-ranking every prospects list it could get its collective hands on. The result of that work are a brand-new Top 100, updated Top 30s for every team and new Top 10s by position. These lists have 2021 draftees and other newcomers all mixed in.
Not surprisingly, we spent all of this week’s Pipeline Podcast talking about the Top 100, and we break down a lot in the episode. But we obviously couldn’t cover everything, so I’m using this week’s Inbox to go over some stuff we did discuss, and some we did not, all re-rank related.
How difficult was the conversation at the top of the list? It seems like Rutschman, Rodríguez, and Witt all have a legit case to be #1. -- @Brecek24
The Orioles’ Adley Rutschman, the Mariners’ Julio Rodríguez and the Royals' Bobby Witt Jr. did finish 1-2-3 on our new Top 100 list. And there is an argument to be made for any of them to be considered No. 1. On the podcast, Jim Callis also talked about how No. 4 prospect Spencer Torkelson could be in the mix because of his offensive ceiling.
To be honest, though, it wasn’t really close for me (and I think I can speak for Jim and Sam Dykstra on this front). All of us picked Rutschman as the No. 1 guy and for good reason. Everyone knows we don’t love comps, but I must admit I have always enjoyed what Jim has said about Rutschman, probably since his Draft year, that he’s Mark Teixeira in terms of offensive upside AND a Gold Glove-caliber catcher. It’s kind of hard to argue with that, right?
That takes nothing away from Rodríguez's exciting offensive profile or the fact that Witt is a 20-20 guy at shortstop already at Triple-A at age 21. Witt is the one, because of the premium position part, who I think you could make the bigger claim he should be in the No. 1 conversation, in my opinion, but Rutschman’s combination of skills at and behind the plate just set him apart for us.
There was some speculation this was not a great Draft class. Is it normal to have as many Draft picks enter the top 100 as this ‘21 Class has? -- @thetuse
We tackled this in the podcast also because this was an interesting confluence of things. Yes, this Draft class did not seem as strong as others, though the shortened 2020 season and the relative lack of summer looks at players, especially the college ones, likely contributed to that overall evaluation of the class. So some might see that and think that placing 11 members of that class (all first-rounders) on the Top 100 is a lot.
It’s actually in line with the numbers from past years. In 2020, we had 13 hit the Top 100 when we re-ranked the list, led by No. 1 overall pick Spencer Torkelson. A dozen draftees were added in 2019 and the 2018 re-rank had 10 newly drafted players on it.
And there’s even precedent to have draftees ranked as highly as we have Marcelo Mayer (No. 9) and Jack Leiter (No. 12), our highest-ranked guys from the Class of ’21. Adley Rutschman and Bobby Witt Jr. were Nos. 6 and 9 in the 2019 re-rank, respectively. Four players in the top 25? Not so outlandish. In that ’19 list, we had three in the top 25 (Andrew Vaughn was No. 23) and four in the top 32. There were three in the top 34 last year (Torkelson and Austin Martin in the top 20).
Now, the argument could be made that some of those classes were better than this one, so why were there as many this time around? Some of that has to do with our current Top 100. A combination of volatility as we are getting actual Minor League performances for the first time since 2019 and graduates (27 of them) left things wide open, leaving room for the 11 we added.
Who's your biggest surprise riser and biggest surprise faller on the Top 100 Prospects list? -- @StevieDAles97
The company line might be that none of it surprised us because we’re so up on everything, but that would be disingenuous. I think each of us would have different responses. For me, I’d have to say the biggest surprise riser has to be Yankees shortstop Anthony Volpe. (Noelvi Marte gets a shoutout, but since I do the Mariners’ Top 30, I was a little more tuned in). Volpe wasn’t in the Top 100 at the start of the year and, honestly, was a first-rounder in 2019 who many of us thought would be a solid but not necessarily spectacular player. He’s blown away expectations in what’s been his first real full year of pro ball, joining the 20-20 club with Witt and Romy Gonzalez of the White Sox. If you had told me he’d be at No. 15 -- ahead of fellow Yankee Jasson Dominguez -- a few months ago, I wouldn’t have believed you.
In terms of fallers, I think that I would have more likely believed that MacKenzie Gore would graduate off prospect lists than drop to No. 62. We had heard about issues he had at the alternate site in 2020 but didn’t see it, and I think we were all willing to throw last year out the window. Those problems have obviously persisted as the Padres removed him from Triple-A to work on his mechanics back in Arizona. The good news is he was back on the mound and pitched four solid innings in the Arizona Complex League on Thursday. He’s still only 22 with time to figure it all out.
Couple of Mets questions. Where was Mauricio on the SS list if you go beyond 10? How close is Vientos to the top 100? Any Mets pitcher that's close to any list? -- @jcastaldo13
The first part is easy. Since we use the Top 100 as the guide, and there are so many shortstops, we can count down the shortstops from No. 10 on the that positional list (Royce Lewis, who is No. 37 overall). Looking at players who are listed with shortstop as a primary position, that leaves only Orelvis Martinez (No. 48) and Oneil Cruz (No. 57) ahead of Mauricio at No. 58. So not far off from the Top 10 at all.
As for the rest of it, I decided to enlist the help of Sam, who does our Mets Top 30, for more insight than I think I can provide. Here’s what he had to say:
"Mark Vientos isn’t 'close' for us right now -- he’s ranked sixth in a system with only three Top 100 prospects -- but he’s certainly trending in the right direction.
"We had him as a 60-power slugger coming into the season, and he’s lived up to that billing with 21 homers and a .603 slugging percentage over 64 games at Double-A Binghamton. Those are huge numbers for a 21-year-old at the Minors’ second-highest level. There are swing-and-miss concerns with a 27.9 percent strikeout rate, and the Mets are still trying to find a defensive home for him with Brett Baty now also manning third at Double-A. Early reviews in left field have been just so-so and have only solidified the idea that he'll move to first base full-time eventually. Vientos could push for the Top 100 if he keeps slugging like this, but the rest of the profile puts a lot of pressure on that power to come through.
"As for New York pitching, Matt Allan was actually on the Top 100 prior to the re-rank but dropped off because of his Tommy John surgery back in May. We still have him as New York’s No. 4 prospect because his ceiling is considerable as a pitcher with three above-average to plus pitches and good control. If the stuff and command return after surgery -- a better bet these days than, say, 10 years ago -- then Allan could easily slot back into the Top 100. We just need to see it first."