Breaking down the betting odds in the ROY race

July 8th, 2022

This article was contributed by DraftKings. For more sports betting insights, check out DraftKings Playbook.

This week, we focus on all the up-and-coming rookies who are in contention for the Rookie of the Year Award in both the American and National League. Our panel has put in their vote and we’re going to discuss three of those players, alongside their DraftKings Sportsbook odds to claim this prestigious title:

Julio Rodríguez
AL Rookie of the Year Odds: -285

No surprise here that Julio Rodríguez is the top option to win the award amongst our voters. The Mariners rookie is also the huge favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook, as the Astros' Jeremy Peña is second at +450. With more than half of the season played, there is still a lot of time left, but Rodríguez feels as if he’s running (no pun intended) away with this award. As of July 8, Rodríguez is slashing .275/.335/.482 with 15 home runs, 43 RBIs, and 21 stolen bases. Among rookies, Rodríguez is leading in almost every category -- and not just in the AL. When going through his offensive stats, it’s hard to find much that he’s not the leader in. Runs, hits, doubles, RBI, home runs, stolen bases -- J-Rod is the guy. Hence why, on DraftKings Sportsbook, he's the biggest favorite on the board.

Rodríguez also recently became the fastest player in MLB history to reach 15 home runs and 20 stolen bases, doing so in just 81 games. The players he bested make up a truly elite list: Ellis Burks (82 games), Kal Daniels (88 games), Barry Bonds (90 games) and Eric Davis (91 games). It’s remarkable to see these types of stats after his slow start to the season. During the month of April, Rodríguez played 20 games and slashed just .205/.284/.260 with only four extra-base hits (all doubles) and nine stolen bases.

Is it worth taking Rodríguez at -285? It’s certainly not an attractive line to take him now, as over a month ago you were still getting him at plus money. That said, I’m a firm believer that he will indeed win this award, barring an extended period of missed time. If he continues to hit and play as he has, this line is going to continue to climb, making it even more unattractive. So while you missed the boat if you haven’t gotten a piece of him already, I’m not positive you’re going to get a better number as it stands.

Bobby Witt Jr.
AL Rookie of the Year Odds: +1400

Witt Jr. is third in the voting process and third on DraftKings Sportsbook. If anyone can win this award aside from Rodríguez, this is the guy. Ranked as the Royals' No. 1 prospect before the season began, Witt at 14-1 odds is not a bad play to make. While his slash line isn’t all that impressive at .236/.286/.444, the hits he’s collecting are big ones. Of the 70 hits he has on the year, 33 of them (47%) have gone for extra bases. Witt has 16 doubles, five triples (which leads all rookies) and 12 home runs. On top of that, he also has speed like Rodríguez, swiping 12 bases while only being caught three times. If Witt can start to bring up his slash line, the chatter about him being in ROY contention are going to start up again.

Witt has shown in the Minors that he has the tools to be a 30/30 player. Between his stops at both Double-A and Triple-A last season, he combined to hit 33 home runs and steal 29 bases. On both levels, he hit under .300 but was at .295 and .285, respectively. While he hasn’t quite put that aspect together at the Major League level yet, all of his other tools have been on full display. While I’m very much in on Rodríguez to win the award, I think Witt brings the best value on the board for someone who is like J-Rod but is at 14-1. If you missed the boat on Rodríguez and want to dabble on a bit of a long shot at the halfway point of the season, I think now is the time to get in on Witt.

Spencer Strider
NL Rookie of the Year Odds: +350

Strider truly solidified himself after his last start against the Cardinals. In his best start since joining the Majors, Strider threw six scoreless innings, allowing just two hits and striking out 12. What the box score won’t show is that Strider had nine strikeouts by the time the third inning ended. He completely dominated the Cards the first time through the order, which pushed his K/9 on the year to a ridiculous 13.9. Just how good is that mark? If we look at all pitchers who have thrown at least 60 innings, that would be the best in the entire league. Ideally, to qualify, we’re looking at pitchers with 80-plus innings under their belt, so if you look at that leaderboard, Strider doesn’t appear. Nonetheless, his strikeout material has people talking, and yet he’s second on the board for ROY.

Among all rookie pitchers, Strider’s WAR of 2.1 tops the league. Joe Ryan of the Twins is the closest to him at 1.8. When it comes to strikeouts, however, Strider is the only pitcher over the 100 mark. Before the All-Star break comes, Strider is expected to make two more starts against the Mets and Nationals. While he has yet to face the Mets this season, he has dominated the Nationals on two occasions -- once as a reliever and once as a starter. Through 9 innings, Strider has allowed three runs on four hits with 14 strikeouts. While he continues to trail Braves outfielder Michael Harris II, I think now is the time to get on Strider before the buzz about him grows even further.

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

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