6 division matchups with playoff race implications

July 31st, 2023

As the Trade Deadline approaches, and MLB’s buyers and sellers become known, it’s the time of the year when the playoff race is ramping up. While the NL Wild Card race is particularly tight, both leagues have several teams on the border of playoff contention that will be put to the test this week in high-leverage series.

More specifically, the theme of the week is divisional matchups that could impact the playoff chances for both teams involved. Here are six such series to watch during the week of July 31.

Rays (64-44) at Yankees (55-50)
3 games (Monday-Wednesday)

Head to head: The Rays are 4-3 against the Yankees this season, including a split of a four-game series in New York in May.

Storyline: Will 's return boost the Yankees back into the playoff race? One of five teams all-time to make at least six straight postseasons, New York is in danger of seeing that streak end, currently sitting 3 1/2 games out of the last Wild Card spot. But the Yankees are 31-20 when Judge plays this season, providing hope that their playoff chances aren’t done yet.

Watch out for: . The Rays offense has slipped since its blistering start, averaging an AL-worst 3.57 runs per game in July. But Siri has continued to perform well all season and is tied for first on the team with 20 home runs, including four since the All-Star break.

Phillies (56-49) at Marlins (57-49)
4 games (Monday-Thursday)

Head to head: The Marlins are 4-2 against the Phillies this season, including winning two out of three games in Miami just before the All-Star break.

Storyline: How wild is the Wild Card race going to get? These are two of the NL’s five Wild Cards teams that are all within two games of one another, along with the Brewers, Giants and D-backs. With only three Wild Card spots up for grabs, any games between those teams will carry extra weight.

Watch out for: . Fellow Philadelphia outfielders Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos tend to provide the power, but Marsh can do a little bit of everything on the field and have fun along the way. The 25-year-old has a .282/.365/.456 batting line this season, all of which are career highs.

Reds (58-49) at Cubs (53-52)
4 games (Monday-Thursday)

Head to head: The Reds are 4-1 against the Cubs this season, and they swept a three-game series in Chicago in May.

Storyline: Are the Cubs back in the hunt? Not long ago, the Cubs looked like they might be sellers at the Deadline, hovering between 4-8 games under .500 for most of June and July. But since July 21, Chicago has won eight of nine games, getting above .500 for the first time since May 6 and surging back into the playoff conversation.

Watch out for: . Though not technically a rookie like teammates , and , the 25-year-old has arguably been as important to Cincinnati’s surprising season as any of them. Benson has a 1.012 OPS since the start of June, sixth-highest in MLB (min. 100 plate appearances).

D-backs (56-50) at Giants (58-48)
4 games (Monday-Thursday)

Head to head: The D-backs are 4-3 against the Giants this season, but the Giants took two of three games in San Francisco in June.

Storyline: Which team can get back on track? Arizona has lost eight of its last 10 games, and San Francisco has lost seven of 11. With the Wild Card race being as compact as it is, neither of these teams can afford to maintain that trend for long.

Watch out for: . Helping keep an injury-depleted Giants offense afloat, Pederson has had a career year by several metrics. Via Statcast, his .511 xSLG and .389 xwOBA are both his highest in any season where he’s played at least 20 games.

Mariners (54-51) at Angels (55-51)
4 games (Thursday-Sunday)

Head to head: The Angels are 4-2 against the Mariners this season, including winning two of three games at home in June.

Storyline: Will the Angels’ gamble pay off? The Angels boldly announced to the world that they were all-in on the 2023 season, retaining Shohei Ohtani and trading for Lucas Giolito, Randal Grichuk and C.J. Cron. But they still are four games out of a Wild Card spot, with Mike Trout likely out for at least a couple more weeks.

Watch out for: . Ford is not exactly a household name, never having played more than 50 games in a season. But the Mariners’ DH has quietly put up five homers and an .895 OPS in July -- not to mention homering in both games he appeared in at Angel Stadium in June.

Blue Jays (59-47) at Red Sox (56-49)
3 games (Friday-Sunday)

Head to head: The Red Sox are 7-0 against the Blue Jays this season. They are one of two teams to have at least seven wins and no losses, against an opponent in 2023 (Mariners are 7-0 against the A’s).

Storyline: Can the Blue Jays figure it out in divisional games? Toronto is 7-20 against AL East opponents, including its aforementioned 0-7 mark against Boston. But in non-division games, the Blue Jays are 52-27, by far the best record in such games in MLB.

Watch out for: . Yoshida has been a Blue Jay destroyer in six games this season, having 14 hits, 10 RBIs and 25 total bases -- all the most or tied for the most by any player against Toronto in 2023.