It’s been quite an eventful month in Major League Baseball.
While some teams are off to hot starts, others have stumbled out of the gate, creating some unusual sights in the standings. Yes, it’s still early – the Nationals were 19-31 after 50 games in 2019 before making a run to their first World Series championship – but what have the first 25-30 games taught us about what to expect over the next five months?
We polled 20 front-office executives on a variety of topics to get their thoughts on the opening month of the 2026 season. We’ll be rolling out the results in the coming days, starting with the biggest surprises and disappointments and which teams they believe will be there in October.
Note: Executives were free to skip any questions they chose not to answer, while some also provided multiple answers to some questions.
Which team has been the biggest surprise?
Pirates (4 votes)
Reds (3 votes)
Twins (3 votes)
Braves (2 votes)
Athletics (1 vote)
Cardinals (1 vote)
Diamondbacks (1 vote)
Guardians (1 vote)
Marlins (1 vote)
Nationals (1 vote)
Padres (1 vote)
That 11 different teams received votes tells you everything you need to know about the season so far.
Three Central division teams led the way, with the Pirates edging out the Reds and Twins by a single vote. Pittsburgh sits at at 16-13, though the Pirates’ plus-24 run differential trailed only the Dodgers, Braves and Cubs in the National League.
The additions of Ryan O’Hearn and Brandon Lowe this offseason have had the desired effect; the Pirates rank fifth in the NL in runs scored after ranking last in the league a year ago.
“That kind of turnaround in one offseason is usually not an accident,” an American League executive said.
The Reds’ 18-10 start had them leading the NL Central entering the week despite a run differential of only plus-1, getting strong pitching (fourth-lowest ERA in the NL) even with the absence of Hunter Greene.
“The bullpen is exceeding expectations early and putting them in position to win a lot of close games,” an AL exec said. “Even with a number of their hitters off to slow starts, they are just finding a way to get it done.”
The Twins (13-16) got off to a solid start before losing nine of their last 11, but their pitching staff – led by 25-year-old Taj Bradley – ranks eighth in the AL in ERA. The offense is third in runs scored and fourth in home runs, with Byron Buxton leading the way with six homers.
“Despite being in the middle of a rebuild, their younger players have been producing offensively, hitting for power,” an AL executive said. “They have frontline starters who have been impressive, with the potential to supplement the roster as the season progresses from their farm system.”
After their disappointing 76-win season a year ago that snapped their seven-year postseason streak, the Braves have overcome a number of injury issues to become baseball’s first 20-win team in 2026.
“Their pitching has been lights out – they have the best ERA in baseball – and they’ve scored the most runs in baseball,” an NL executive said. “People aren’t really talking about them as much as you’d expect, given they’re playing like the best team in baseball right now.”
The Athletics sit atop the AL West at 15-13 despite a negative run differential and poor starts from a number of key players.
“Their pitching has kept them competitive in games where their potent lineup hasn’t been firing on all cylinders yet,” an AL executive said. “If [Brent] Rooker, [Lawrence] Butler and [Tyler] Soderstrom all get going, they could take the AL West.”
Which team has been the biggest disappointment?
Mets (10 votes)
Red Sox (3 votes)
Phillies (2 votes)
Blue Jays (1 vote)
Mariners (1 vote)
The Mets were an overwhelming choice here, with more than half of respondents tabbing New York in this category.
“This team is too talented and costly to perform like this,” an NL executive said. “This has to be a very tough clubhouse right now.”
The Mets opened the season 7-4, but a 12-game losing streak sent them into a tailspin. New York won two straight – losing Francisco Lindor to the injured list in the process – then suffered a three-game sweep at the hands of the Rockies over the weekend at Citi Field.
“It’s hard to imagine a losing streak that long,” an NL executive said. “I can't imagine it is due to anyone they brought in specifically, but they’re just not clicking at the moment.”
“Everything about the Mets has looked disjointed,” another NL exec said. “They don’t really look like they’re playing for each other or [manager Carlos] Mendoza, and they’ve been fraught with injuries.”
The Red Sox, who fired manager Alex Cora and a number of coaches over the weekend, received the second-most votes of any club. Boston is 12-17, seven games behind the Yankees in the AL East.
“One of the worst offenses in the game so far with a pitching staff ranking in the bottom third,” an AL executive said. “The numbers under the hood aren’t suggesting there are some easy or quick fixes, either.”
Which player has been the biggest surprise?
Jordan Walker, Cardinals (6 votes)
Sal Stewart, Reds (5 votes)
José Soriano, Angels (4 votes)
Liam Hicks, Marlins (1 vote)
Munetaka Murakami, White Sox (1 vote)
Andy Pages, Dodgers (1 vote)
Mike Trout, Angels (1 vote)
Walker was a Top 5 prospect in the game in 2023, but he posted a negative bWAR in each of the past three seasons, never living up to the lofty expectations. Through his first 26 games this year, Walker had a 1.7 bWAR, hitting eight home runs with 16 RBIs and a .926 OPS, ranking in the top five percent of the league in average exit velocity, barrel percentage, hard-hit percentage and bat speed.
“After the last couple years, it was becoming reasonable to question whether his physical gifts would translate to Major League performance,” an NL executive said. “He has improved his approach, his bat path and ball flight in order to tap into the power that was always there, and he is now looking like a very dangerous hitter.”
“You could see the Jordan Walker breakout coming with the offseason workouts,” an AL executive said. “But seeing it come so rapidly has been fun to watch.”
Stewart has paced the Reds’ offense, helping to make up for subpar starts by many of his teammates. The 22-year-old entered the week with nine home runs, an NL-high 29 RBIs, seven stolen bases and a .987 OPS, living up to his draft status after being selected with the 32nd pick in 2022.
“Everyone knows Stewart was a highly touted prospect,” an NL executive said. “But for him to make an immediate impact like he has this year is quite impressive.”
“He has kicked it into another gear after his debut last season, regaining his excellent zone control while tapping into more power,” another NL exec said.
The most interesting vote? Mike Trout, the three-time AL MVP who is off to a red-hot start after battling injuries for most of this decade.
“Obviously he’s a Hall of Famer, but seeing him on the field and back in Mike Trout form is amazing,” an AL executive said. “It’s just great for the game to have the best players out there.”
Which player has been the biggest disappointment?
Rafael Devers, Giants (7 votes)
Jesús Luzardo, Phillies (3 votes)
Josh Naylor, Mariners (2 votes)
Devin Williams, Mets (2 votes)
Trevor Story, Red Sox (1 vote)
When Devers signed his 10-year, $313.5 million extension with the Red Sox three years ago, it seemed like he would anchor Boston’s lineup for the next decade. The stunning trade that sent him to San Francisco last season gave the Giants the big bat they desperately needed, and while he performed well after the deal, his numbers in 2026 have been far short of his career averages.
“People haven’t talked about him as much as other disappointing players, but he has the worst fWAR in baseball, a strikeout rate over 30 percent, and only two home runs through one-sixth of the season,” an NL executive said. “A 50 wRC+ from a player whose offense is their calling card isn’t going to do the trick.”
Another NL executive believes Devers is “still one of the most talented hitters in the game and he’ll pull out of this, but it’s been a rough start,” while another wondered, “Where did the walks and power go?”
Luzardo agreed to a five-year, $135 million extension with the Phillies that kicks in next season, but the left-hander is 1-3 with a 6.91 ERA through his first five starts, one of the myriad reasons Philadelphia is off to a 9-19 start with a 1-10 record in its last 11 games entering the week.
“Luzardo was supposed to anchor Philadelphia’s rotation in a World Series window,” an AL executive said. “Instead, he has a 6.91 ERA with hitters batting .295 against him.”
Division-by-division thoughts
We asked each executive which team was the best in all six divisions. Here’s the breakdown:
American League East
Yankees (16 votes)
Blue Jays (1 vote)
“They are already leading the division despite limited offensive contributions from anyone other than [Aaron] Judge, [Ben] Rice and [Cody] Bellinger. Their rotation will be even better once [Gerrit] Cole is back.” – NL executive
“Say what you want about the narratives around them, year-in and year-out, they put together a lot of talent on both sides of the ball. Plus they have that Judge guy.” – AL executive
American League Central
Tigers (15 votes)
Guardians (1 vote)
“The Tigers have been underperforming relative to expectation, but I would have to give a slight lean to them. [Kevin] McGonigle is legit and the rest of the offense will come along.” – NL executive
“The Tigers hold a talent advantage over the rest of that division. No one outside of Cleveland will likely challenge them.” – NL executive
American League West
Mariners (15 votes)
Athletics (1 vote)
“I know they’re off to a slow start, but [Seattle’s] pitching staff – even with some of the lumps they’ve taken – is going to carry them. They might be the best set of arms 1-13 in the game.” – AL executive
“The league is starting to take notice [of the Athletics] whether they want to or not.” – AL executive
National League East
Braves (13 votes)
Phillies (2 votes)
Mets (1 vote)
“In a division full of chaos, the Braves are simply the one team that keeps showing up and winning series.” – AL executive
“Despite the slow start, you can always expect [the Phillies] to find a way to be a contender come the fall. They have one of the most experienced and impressive lineups in baseball who have played together for a long time. Once [Zack] Wheeler returns, their rotation is going to be in a good spot.” – AL executive
National League Central
Cubs (10 votes)
Brewers (4 votes)
Pirates (1 vote)
Reds (1 vote)
“It should be a fascinating division to watch, with four legit playoff contenders and five teams at or around .500 or above. That being said, think Chicago’s offensive firepower will separate them and they couldn’t be more injured in the bullpen right now. Eventually those guys will get back. “ – NL executive
“Tough call between Milwaukee and Chicago. Milwaukee has an incredibly deep starting pitching well and are a premium defensive club. The Cubbies have the impact bats. When the injuries start to pile up, the Brewers are better positioned to weather it.” – AL executive
“[The Pirates] have a rising group of young talent on the current roster who are producing, while their veteran additions in the offseason have come in and made a positive impact. They’ve been hitting for power, have a balanced lineup, and their pitching staff has been impressive.” – AL executive
National League West
Dodgers (17 votes)
“Do we really need to ask this question?” – NL executive
“If you can find something new to say about them, you’re better at this than I am.” – AL executive