In the winter leading into the Blue Jays' incredible 2025 turnaround, which came up an inch shy of a World Series title, the Jays tried to get better externally.
The club added Anthony Santander to address its slumping run production. They traded for Andrés Giménez's glove but also hoped his bat would bounce back to previous levels in Cleveland. They also signed closer Jeff Hoffman to a three-year deal to help an embattled bullpen.
Those were the headline upgrades for a team that had shed overall production in consecutive seasons, finishing 2024 with its lowest position player WAR output, per FanGraphs, since prior to the COVID-truncated season. In addition, the Blue Jays’ pitching production was cut in half compared to a year earlier.
But a funny thing happened. During the Jays' great turnaround, Giménez and Santander combined for a paltry 0.1 fWAR. Giménez was limited to 101 games due to injury, and Santander played even less, accruing just 221 plate appearances. In the bullpen, Hoffman's ERA doubled from 2.17 with the Phillies in 2024 to 4.37 in Toronto.
Yet, despite those disappointing campaigns from key additions, the Jays scored 127 more runs as a group to improve from 23rd in the Majors in scoring to fourth. They ranked second in position player fWAR (32.9). Their pitching improved in terms of ERA and underlying metrics.
In retrospect, it's interesting to recall what Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins told Sportsnet's Shi Davidi at the GM Meetings at the start of the 2024-25 offseason.
"If you just looked at our projections and the performance of players and did the math on that, you could make the case that we have 10 wins within our roster right now to close [the gap] if we deploy them appropriately and put them in the best positions to be successful," Atkins said then.
Ten hidden wins. That seemed like a lot at the time. And, yet, the Jays exceeded that, with a gain of 13.8 fWAR among returning position players alone last season. Their pitching staff accounted for nearly another four wins of internal improvement (+3.8).
Consider that among the eight Blue Jays position players who accumulated at least 200 plate appearances in both 2024 and ‘25, seven improved by an average gain of 23 wRC+ points. Some of the improvement was tied to new training regimens and routines spearheaded by first-year hitting coach David Popkins, while some of it was regression to the mean. We often think of regression as having a negative connotation, but it works both ways.
The Jays were an example of how improving internal processes, enjoying better health and young players' maturation can be far more impactful than any external help added. In 2025, it worked in favor of the Blue Jays.
That got us thinking: Which clubs could be like the Jays this season? Who are candidates to enjoy significant hidden wins? With help from a large language model (LLM), I analyzed projection systems housed at FanGraphs, along with MLB.com reporting, to arrive at the top candidates for hidden gains.
Let's begin first with the position player side.
The Rockies are the top projected internal wins-gainers, though they are starting from such a low base that even their projected +15 fWAR improvement from returning bats will likely not propel the club to contention. It's easier to enjoy massive mean reversion following a 43-win season. Still, better seasons are expected from Ezequiel Tovar, Brenton Doyle and Jordan Beck.
The Orioles follow, forecasted for an internal bounceback of +9 fWAR from position players before even considering the external additions of Pete Alonso and Taylor Ward. Gunnar Henderson is a candidate to be closer to his 2024 form than last season, when he dealt with a shoulder impingement. In his age-25 season, he should be entering his physical prime.
Projections also forecast dramatic improvement for Adley Rutschman, who is coming off a dreadful year. Recall, it was not that long ago that the former No. 1 overall pick began his career with back-to-back 5-plus fWAR seasons. The eight public projection systems at FanGraphs all forecast major improvements for the switch-hitting catcher, ranging from 3.1 to 4.8 fWAR for 2026.
Among full-time players, only Houston's Yordan Alvarez is projected for a greater fWAR gain. (Alvarez ranked as the seventh-most unlucky hitter in the Majors in terms of Statcast’s expected slugging versus actual last season, minimum 250 plate appearances).
The Orioles feel like a prime candidate to be the Blue Jays of 2026.
The Braves (+6.5 fWAR) are expected to improve and for good reason, given a full season of health from Ronald Acuña Jr. That's in addition to a very plausible rebound from Austin Riley, as well as forecasted growth from Michael Harris II.
The Nationals (+6.5 fWAR) are interesting because of changes to their coaching and player development staff in an effort to modernize, combined with young talent that stands to benefit. James Wood is perhaps a bat path tweak away from superstar status. Former No. 2 overall Draft pick Dylan Crews certainly has more potential, and CJ Abrams can likely access another level.
Cleveland (+6 fWAR) is coming off a season in which it ranked 28th in runs. Projections see growth from a collection of young Guardians like Brayan Rocchio, David Fry, Kyle Manzardo, Nolan Jones and CJ Kayfus. Getting closer to league-average run scoring would be a big deal for a team that gets so much out of its pitchers.
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On the pitching side of the equation, let's consider clubs expected to gain 3-plus wins in fWAR from returning arms. The improvement margins are not quite as large here, as innings totals are typically conservative in forecasts.
The Rays lead the list (+5 fWAR from returning arms), fueled largely by Shane McClanahan's return to the mound, and more innings from Drew Rasmussen, who is another year removed from surgery. Returning to The Trop is a welcomed development for all arms on the staff.
It might be surprising to see the Angels (+4.8 fWAR) here, but projections see more missed bats for Yusei Kikuchi (+2.3), as well as José Soriano's (+2.9) elite velocity and ground-ball rates, and the strikeout potential of Reid Detmers (+2.2).
The Braves (+4.6 fWAR) being on this list -- as well as the hitting list -- is in large part a Spencer Strider story. Strider was not the same in his first year back from an internal brace procedure last season. But there are some encouraging trends this spring, as his four-seamer averaged 95 mph on March 7 and 94.8 mph on March 11, up from his first spring start (93.1 mph).
The shape of the fastball is a more prominent focus this spring, Strider told reporters, and that might be taking form as he's averaged 18 inches of induced vertical break in recent outings and touched 20 inches, an elite number. The shape and velocity of the pitch made it a signature offering prior to his injury.
Atlanta is also looking to benefit from Reynaldo López returning from a shoulder injury and hoping to have Spencer Schwellenbach back by midseason. Grant Holmes and Bryce Elder are forecasted to make slight gains.
The Marlins (+4.4 fWAR) have one of the more talented groups of returning pitchers.
The internal rebound is led by workhorse Sandy Alcantara, who struggled mightily in the first half of 2025 in his return from elbow surgery. But his command came along as the season progressed, as he posted a 1.48 WHIP in the first half compared to a 1.04 WHIP in the second half.
Eury Pérez could be a breakout ace with a significant innings cap removed. Max Meyer looks electric this spring, and prospect Robby Snelling could impact this group. There's internal depth, too, with Janson Junk becoming an elite command arm last season.
The Rockies (+3.5 fWAR) are expected to improve coming from such a low base, but the Mariners (+3.3 fWAR) are perhaps a surprising club to see here given their history and reputation of excellent pitching.
But think back to last season when George Kirby began the year on the injured list with a shoulder issue, and was never quite himself when he returned as seen in his lowered release point. His release is back to its normal slot this spring.
Bryce Miller's performance also fell off last season due to bone chips in his elbow. He hit 98 mph this spring, though an oblique issue will perhaps delay his start to the season. Still, his bounceback upside is enormous. Veteran Luis Castillo adopted a new workload regimen this offseason and his spring velocity is the highest it has been in the Statcast Era.
Who will be this year's Blue Jays? The Orioles? The Braves? They are prime candidates.
For as exciting as offseason additions are, major improvement often comes from within.