How 10 clubs can turn weaknesses into strengths

How 10 clubs can turn weaknesses into strengths

February 28th, 2023

With free agency all but over and the trade market dormant, what you see is what you get when it comes to the rosters of the 30 MLB clubs.

Teams will have opportunities this summer to address positions they see as weaknesses, but for now, any improvement will have to come from within.

Here’s a position-by-position breakdown of 10 postseason hopefuls who rank poorly in projected wins above replacement (per FanGraphs Depth Charts) at specific spots on the diamond, but have the potential to outperform expectations. (All WAR figures in this story are from FanGraphs.)

Catcher: Giants (27th in projected WAR)

Why the projections are pessimistic: All-Star catcher ’s surprising retirement after the 2021 season thrust former No. 2 overall Draft pick into a role for which he might not have been ready. Bart struggled on both sides of the ball, hitting .215 with a 38.5% strikeout rate and faring poorly as a pitch-framer. The 26-year-old is not even guaranteed a spot on the Opening Day roster in 2023, and defense-first veteran , who signed a Minor League deal with the Giants in February, is actually projected for more WAR, 1.3 to 1.0.

Why they could outperform the projections: There’s a reason Bart was the No. 2 overall pick in the 2018 MLB Draft and ranked 31st or higher on MLB Pipeline’s preseason Top 100 prospects list every year from 2019-22. He has the physical tools to be a quality starting catcher at the MLB level. It’s just a matter of putting it all together. At the very least, Bart flashed solid pop when he managed to make contact last season, posting a 10.1% barrel rate, a 43% hard-hit rate and a max exit velocity of 114.3 mph, a number only 32 players across the Majors topped in 2022.

First base: Red Sox (T-17th in projected WAR)

Why the projections are pessimistic: Projections for ’ (MLB Pipeline’s No. 23 prospect) offensive production are actually fairly optimistic -- FanGraphs Depth Charts projects the 23-year-old for a .342 wOBA and 118 wRC+ -- but still on the low end relative to other starting first basemen, likely because he has just 95 MLB plate appearances under his belt.

Why they could outperform the projections: Casas recorded a .344 wOBA and 120 wRC+ during his brief debut in 2022, and that’s while dealing with a .208 BABIP that dragged down his overall slash stats. Though he didn’t post gaudy home run totals in the Minors, the first baseman has impressive raw power to all fields, with MLB Pipeline pegging him as a potential 40-homer bat. Even if his power doesn’t fully blossom in 2023, he could be an on-base machine and above-average defender for Boston.

Second base: Orioles (20th in projected WAR)

Why the projections are pessimistic: FanGraphs projects free-agent addition to get the bulk of the playing time at second base for the Orioles in 2023. Although the 31-year-old is expected to rebound some after a poor season for the Mariners last season, the projections aren’t overly optimistic (1.8 WAR).

Why they could outperform the projections: We saw Frazier produce 2.7 WAR in 2019 and 3.6 WAR in 2021, so we know he’s capable of more. If the Frazier signing isn’t working out, the O’s have the option of playing (MLB Pipeline’s No. 1 overall prospect) at third base more often, with starting at shortstop and 2022 Gold Glove Award-winning third baseman at second. Urías was a 2.6-WAR player over 118 games for the O’s last season. (No. 74 prospect) gives the team another second-base option with upside in the Minors.

Third base: Mets (T-21st in projected WAR)

Why the projections are pessimistic: This was supposed to be ’s spot. But after the Mets’ deal with the All-Star fell through due to concerns about his physical, veteran appears set to handle third-base duties for the Mets to start 2023, with in reserve. FanGraphs Depth Charts projects that combination to produce 2.0 WAR over 560 PAs at third base this season.

Why they could outperform the projections: The simplest answer is that Escobar could deliver more production than the projections are expecting. He had 2.3 WAR last season despite struggling at the plate for much of the year while dealing with an unspecified family matter (per a report from The Athletic’s Will Sammon) that weighed on him. After resolving that issue in August and returning from an oblique injury, Escobar slashed .328/.388/.595 with eight homers over his final 32 games. Another component that the projections aren’t considering? The possibility that (MLB Pipeline’s No. 21 prospect) could take the job and run with it. The 23-year-old had 19 homers and a .943 OPS over 95 games between Double-A and Triple-A in 2022 and slugged two more dingers in 11 games with the Mets before suffering a season-ending right thumb injury.

Shortstop: Yankees (22nd in projected WAR)

Why the projections are pessimistic: The Yankees don’t have a clear-cut starter at shortstop, and two of their three options have either little () or no () MLB experience. New York’s third option, veteran , owns a career 82 wRC+.

Why they could outperform the projections: Correa, , , , , and  were all free agents over the past two offseasons. The Yankees didn’t seriously pursue any of them, in large part due to the belief they already had their future starting shortstop in the organization. Volpe (MLB Pipeline’s No. 5 prospect) and Peraza (No. 52) now have the chance to validate New York’s confidence in them. Volpe, who recorded 21 homers, 50 steals and an .802 OPS between Double-A and Triple-A last season, has the higher ceiling of the two, but Peraza is a better defender and could be a capable hitter as well. He slashed .306/.404/.429 in 57 plate appearances for the Yankees in 2022.

Left field: Mariners (24th in projected WAR)

Why the projections are pessimistic: After was traded to the Brewers in a deal for second baseman , and fractured the hamate bone in his right hand, and are the Mariners’ primary left-field options going into 2023. Kelenic has recorded a 68 wRC+ over his first 558 plate appearances, and Pollock is coming off a 92 wRC+ for the White Sox in what was his age-34 season.

Why they could outperform the projections: Given the extent of Kelenic’s struggles thus far, this could be his last chance to prove himself worthy of a big league roster spot with Seattle. He was one of the top prospects in all of baseball not too long ago and is still just 23 years old, so we can’t write him off just yet.

Center field: Cubs (T-20th in projected WAR)

Why the projections are pessimistic: Signed to a one-year, $17.5 million deal after being non-tendered by the Dodgers, may be an upgrade over what the Cubs had in center last season. But this is still a hitter who has posted a 69 wRC+ in 900 plate appearances over the past two seasons. He’s projected for a 98 wRC+, which is below average but would still be a significant step up from 2022 (83).

Why they could outperform the projections: Bellinger at his best was the NL MVP in 2019, recording 47 homers with a 161 wRC+ and 7.7 WAR. Will the change of scenery unlock that player again? Maybe not, but even if he returns to his 2020 level of production (112 wRC+), that combined with his excellent defense and baserunning could make him a 3-4 WAR player for the Cubs.

Right field: White Sox (29th in projected WAR)

Why the projections are pessimistic: The White Sox haven’t had a consistent starting right fielder since , who left Chicago as a free agent at the end of the 2018 season. , , , and are among the players they’ve tried out there over the past four seasons, with poor results on offense and defense. It’s now ’ turn, but the projections are skeptical about MLB Pipeline’s No. 85 prospect. After playing professionally in his native Cuba and Japan (mostly in the country’s minor Western League), he signed with the White Sox in January 2022 and was fast-tracked through Chicago’s system last season.

Why they could outperform the projections: We won’t know what Colas can (or can’t) do for the White Sox until we see it, but the left-handed slugger has been touted for his big power and even bigger arm. There’s certainly a chance he earns the starting job this spring, contends for the AL Rookie of the Year Award and cements himself as the starting right fielder on the South Side of Chicago for years to come.

Starting rotation: Cardinals (20th in projected WAR)

Why the projections are pessimistic: Injuries have limited to just 26 appearances (23 starts) over the past two seasons, and he owns a 3.90 ERA and 4.36 FIP in three seasons since his 2019 breakout. St. Louis’ rotation also includes a second oft-injured pitcher, lefty , and a 41-year-old in .

Why they could outperform the projections: It’s been a while, but we’ve seen Flaherty pitch like an ace when healthy. With free agency upcoming, he needs a big year in 2023. Matz, meanwhile, was a 2.8-WAR pitcher while making 29 starts for the Blue Jays in 2021. If either pitcher deals with injuries again, the Cardinals could turn to (MLB Pipeline’s No. 79 prospect) or , who had a 5.97 ERA over nine games (seven starts) last season but is a former Top 100 prospect in his own right. The projections are extremely low on Wainwright (1.2 WAR), likely because of his age, but he has continued to defy Father Time, recording a 3.32 ERA with 7.7 WAR since the beginning of 2020. Would anyone be surprised if he did it again in his final season?

Bullpen: Angels (30th in projected WAR)

Why the projections are pessimistic: Most of the arms from the bullpen that registered MLB’s fourth-highest FIP (4.31) in 2022 are still with the club. (lifetime 4.59 ERA, 4.21 FIP) was the biggest addition to the Angels’ relief corps this offseason, and the team also signed . The veteran lefty had a 1.95 ERA for the Rangers last season after moving into a full-time relief role for the first time, but the projections take his previous struggles into account.

Why they could outperform the projections: Perhaps getting away from Coors Field will allow the hard-throwing Estévez to flourish. Before Estévez signed with the Halos, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported that there were multiple teams that viewed the right-hander as a potential high-leverage bullpen piece, with some even considering him as a possible closer, a role he might fill with the Angels. Maybe last year’s performance will become the new normal for Moore. And perhaps veterans and will look more like the pitchers they were in 2021 (3.2 combined WAR) than the ones they were in 2022 (0.5 combined WAR). Point is, there's a world where the Angels' bullpen, which also features (2.48 ERA in 2022), (2.61 ERA in 2022) and (3.22 ERA in 2022), is a reliable unit.