5 post-break questions that could shape the Trade Deadline

The All-Star break has come and gone and the 2026 season is set to resume Thursday night, kicking off an 18-day sprint to the Trade Deadline.

The Deadline picture is still quite murky as the second half gets underway, but the next couple of weeks should provide some clarity.

Here’s a look at five key questions that could shape this year’s trade market.

1. Can the red-hot Tigers and Red Sox keep it up?

A few weeks ago, the Tigers and Red Sox looked like surefire sellers, each sitting on a collection of coveted trade candidates who seemed destined to move before reaching free agency at year’s end.

Detroit is holding the biggest trade chip of all in two-time Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal, but they also have Casey Mize (in the midst of a breakout season), Gleyber Torres and Jack Flaherty. The Red Sox, meanwhile, have two premier trade assets of their own in Sonny Gray and Aroldis Chapman. At this point, however, none of those players are locks to be dealt, with the Tigers and Red Sox both back in contention for a playoff spot.

Detroit won nine of its final 12 games before the All-Star break and owns the American League’s best record (22-14) since the start of June. The Tigers have a fairly easy schedule coming out of the break, too, with matchups against the Angels, Cubs, Royals, Orioles and Athletics on tap. Boston has been even better of late, winning nine straight and 14 of its past 16 going back to June 25. The Red Sox’s pre-Deadline schedule is a bit tougher since they have to play the Rays and Dodgers, but they are three games ahead of the Tigers in the AL Wild Card race.

2. Can the Padres pull out of their tailspin?

On the other end of the spectrum from the Tigers and Red Sox is the Padres, who were 11 games over .500 (31-20) entering play on May 24 but have gone 17-28 in their past 45 games. San Diego’s struggles have led to speculation that the club could sell at the Trade Deadline, with rumors swirling around flamethrowing closer Mason Miller in particular.

It would be surprising to see the Padres trade Miller when they just acquired him last summer for a package headlined by top prospect Leo De Vries, but nothing can be ruled out when general manager A.J. Preller is involved. Of course, the Padres could quiet any talk of them selling and put Preller in position to make another bold move as a Deadline buyer with a strong stretch coming out of the break.

3. Will there be an early blockbuster?

Over the years, baseball has seen its share of trades made well before the Trade Deadline, with some even going down in June. These have become more uncommon lately thanks to the advent of the third Wild Card spot, which has kept more clubs in the playoff picture deep into July -- and thus, less likely to sell early on.

The 2026 landscape makes those early deals even harder to imagine, with 23 of baseball's 30 teams within four games of a playoff spot heading into the second half. But it’s always possible an ambitious buyer will look to get ahead of the market, striking an early deal with a likely seller to gain an edge in a tight playoff race and beat the rush before the Deadline frenzy drives up prices.

4. Is a post-break surge coming for the Blue Jays?

We keep waiting for the Blue Jays to start playing like the team that almost won the World Series last year, but every time they’ve taken a step forward this season it’s usually been followed by two steps back. The last time they were over .500? April 3, when they were 4-3.

While the Blue Jays are still only 2 1/2 games out in the race for the third AL Wild Card spot, they are behind five other teams and have the fourth-longest playoff odds in the AL at 19.9% (per FanGraphs).

Most of Toronto’s key pieces are under control beyond 2026, and the majority of its pending free agents don’t have much trade value. But if the club doesn’t start playing better coming out of the break, it might be in the organization’s best interest to at least see what Kevin Gausman -- in the final season of a five-year, $110 million deal -- could bring back in a trade. Though his ERA is 4.33 this season, the 35-year-old has a strong track record and would comfortably slot into a playoff rotation for most contenders, so he should generate plenty of interest if the Blue Jays decide to place him on the trade block.

5. How will injuries impact buyers’ Deadline wish lists?

While most contenders have an idea of what areas they need to address, several teams’ Deadline plans could hinge on what happens with their injured stars.

Take the Yankees, for example. According to general manager Brian Cashman, Aaron Judge was expected to have his fractured rib reimaged during the All-Star break, providing a clearer timetable for the three-time MVP’s expected return. If Judge gets good news, the Yankees might be less inclined to aggressively pursue offensive upgrades and focus instead on their bullpen needs (they’ve been linked to Miller).

Similarly, the Dodgers are counting on having injured starters Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow back in their rotation in August. With those reinforcements coming, they've shown only minor interest in Skubal to this point, according to a recent report from MLB Network insider Jon Heyman. Might they rethink that stance if Snell or Glasnow were to suffer a setback?

The Brewers are in the same boat. They swung a trade with the Astros on Wednesday for oft-injured starter Lance McCullers Jr., but it remains to be seen if bigger rotation moves will be necessary. A lot will depend on what happens with their top two starters, Jacob Misiorowski and Kyle Harrison. Misiorowski was scratched from his final scheduled start before the All-Star break due to arm fatigue and is closing in on his career high in innings pitched, while Harrison was placed on the 10-day IL last Saturday with left forearm tightness. The club also recently lost Brandon Woodruff to a right shoulder injury, so its starting staff is in a precarious position as the second half begins.