As 2nd half nears, will Nationals be Deadline buyers or sellers?

For the first time in recent years, projecting the Nationals’ direction at the Trade Deadline is not clear cut.

After being sellers since 2021, the Nationals have exceeded expectations and are playing around .500 baseball. They are tied for the league’s leading offense, led by All-Stars James Wood and CJ Abrams, but their pitching has wavered, particularly their bullpen.

“I’m proud of this group,” said first-year manager Blake Butera. “Coming into this season, everyone was throwing around the word[s] ‘rebuild’ and ‘a couple years away,’ or whatever it might be. The fact that we're talking about whether we're going to be buyers or sellers at the Deadline shows a lot.

“These guys in the clubhouse have done a lot to get to this point that we are at today. We still have a lot of work that needs to be done, but overall I’m happy with the way these guys come out ready to play every single day.”

The Nationals front office, led by first-year president of baseball operations Paul Toboni, will face the questions: make moves to win this season, or part ways with key players to build for the future?

In the past, expiring contracts were the Nationals’ biggest trade chips. A caveat this season could be All-Star left-hander Foster Griffin. The Nats signed him to a one-year deal in December, and the 30-year-old earned his first All-Star selection in his return from three years in Japan. Griffin is a stabilizing force on a pitching staff that has struggled with consistency. He could fit into plans beyond this season if the Nationals choose to retain him at the Deadline.

“We were pretty careful about not setting expectations too high or too low coming into this,” Toboni said in late June. “Just kind of see how it went with every passing day. I've been pretty vocal about it. We just want to get the best out of our roster.”

• Record at the break: 48-49 (Fourth in the NL East, eight games back)
• Record at the break last year: 38-58 (Fifth in the NL East, 17 games back)
• Playoff odds: 3.4%
• Remaining Strength of Schedule: .494 (20th, easiest in MLB)
• Biggest need: Bullpen reliability

The Nationals enter the All-Star break with a league-high 27 blown saves. Their bullpen holds the highest ERA in the National League (5.07). In the final series before the All-Star break, the Nationals blew three late-game leads to get swept by the Yankees. Pitching to matchups, 10 Washington pitchers have recorded a save while the bullpen has experienced a flurry of roster moves to keep arms fresh.

Biggest chip: Abrams
Abrams was a topic of trade buzz this past offseason because of his controllable contract, and his All-Star performance has boosted that value. Abrams, who doesn’t turn 26 until the end of the season, was named the National League starting shortstop for the Midsummer Classic. He leads NL shortstops in home runs (20), RBIs (66) and slugging percentage (.519). Outside of Griffin and his expiring contract, Abrams is the Nats’ biggest chip should they decide to sell.

Key player for second half: Wood
Wood, 23, is the engine that powers the Nationals' offense. He already set a franchise record for the most lead-off home runs in a single season (10) -- before the All-Star break. The 6-foot-6, two-time All-Star leads the Majors in runs scored (89) and walks (79), and he ranks first in the NL in on-base percentage (.410), slugging percentage (.575) and OPS (.985). Wood has the ability to change the course of a Nationals game with one swing of the bat.

Determining Factor: The Nationals had gotten in the Wild Card mix, playing .500 baseball or better until the last game before the break. They enter the second half 48-49 with 16 games to play before the Trade Deadline. How they perform leading up to Aug. 3 will determine their Deadline approach. If the Nats make a push, they could consider boosting their roster. But if they struggle this month, the front office could focus on building for the future instead.