The rebuilding Orioles improved in 2020, finishing fourth in the American League East after hanging around the outer frays of the playoff picture for much of the shortened 60-game season. The '21 season will be about building on those gains.

Three years into the Orioles' rebuilding process, elements of what could be an exciting young core are emerging: a middle of the order featuring hulking switch-hitter Anthony Santander, slugging prospect Ryan Mountcastle and the return of Trey Mancini; an upstart rotation headed by John Means; and a farm system now rated among baseball’s best. It might be another lean year record-wise in Baltimore, but help is on the way.

What needs to go right?
To contend? Quite a bit. But that’s not the bar the Orioles are setting just yet.

They’d be just as happy seeing improvements from as many young players as possible, both at the big league level and below. In Baltimore, they are hoping Means and Santander take steps forward, Mountcastle thrives and any questions about Mancini’s health fade following his recovery from Stage 3 colon cancer.

The rebuild’s first real wave of pitching prospects is either here or nearly here in the form of Dean Kremer, Keegan Akin, No. 9 prospect Mike Baumann and No. 12 Zac Lowther. A successful season would end with all of them contributing at the big league level. It would also help if Matt Harvey, Freddy Galvis and Maikel Franco emerge as trade chips come July. Down on the farm, progress will be measured largely by how far top prospect Adley Rutschman advances and how 2020 top pick Heston Kjerstad fares in his first run at pro ball.

Great unknown
What will the pitching look like? The Orioles, like all clubs, will have hundreds more innings to cover this year after the shortened 2020 season. But what Baltimore has more than most clubs is young pitchers coming off career-low workloads whose health will take priority over the club’s on-field goals. The rebuilding O’s simply aren’t going to push their prospects beyond reason in a year they don’t expect to contend.

So how do the innings get covered? That’s the unknown. The O’s are brainstorming a variety of non-traditional pitching strategies, from six-man rotations to piggybacking to openers and more. It’ll likely be a patchwork effort, with swingman types like Bruce Zimmermann, Thomas Eshelman and others playing key roles to provide innings in bulk. These days on the mound, depth is always paramount. In 2021, it will be even more so.

“Depth is going to be vital this year,” manager Brandon Hyde said. “Because of last year and the lack of innings thrown, I don’t think any of us have any idea of what this year is going to look like from the pitching side. That’s something we’ve talked about -- creating as much depth in the rotation, as many long guys as possible, because I could see us using a lot of pitchers.”

Team MVP will be ...
The Orioles' No. 5 prospect per MLB Pipeline, Mountcastle is an AL Rookie of the Year Award candidate after hitting .333/.386/.492 with five homers in 35 games down the stretch in 2020. He is locked in as the starter in left field, and he will need to prove the improved defense and plate discipline he showed in ’20 wasn’t a fluke. But even if the league adjusts to him a bit, Mountcastle’s bat still has impact potential, especially in the friendly hitting confines of Camden Yards. And while it is not difficult to see Santander and Mancini profiling as trade bait come summer, Mountcastle isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. He’s going to get every opportunity to thrive, and he has as much offensive upside as anyone on the roster.

Team Cy Young will be ...
Means’ ascent from non-prospect to All-Star shocked the baseball world in 2019. Two years later, he’s the Orioles' unquestioned ace and their Opening Day starter. Further improvement wouldn't surprise anyone, given how Means has grown into a durable four-pitch starter with a mid-90s fastball (and elite spin), two distinct breaking balls and improving command. If he can slice his home run rate (not an easy task at Camden Yards), Means could take the next step in '21 into one of the AL's better starters.

Bold prediction
At least six top prospects will debut. Of the Orioles' Top 30 prospects per MLB Pipeline, upwards of a dozen are knocking on the door to the big leagues. They probably won’t all debut in 2021. But at least half of them easily could: Yusniel Díaz, Baumann, Lowther, Ryan McKenna, Jahmai Jones and Alexander Wells, with rookies Mountcastle, Kremer, Akin and Zimmermann expected to play large roles as well. Though the very top prospects, like Rutschman, remain a little ways off, this wave could mark a turning point for an organization that has been rebuilding for several years.