As Deadline nears, who's on the move for O's?

July 30th, 2019

Last year at the non-waiver Trade Deadline, the Orioles shipped off much of their core in a series of franchise-altering deals. This year, there is no , , or .

That said, Baltimore remains one of MLB’s clearest sellers as Wednesday’s 4 p.m. ET Deadline approaches. This year, there is more uncertainty and less urgency for the Orioles, who have already traded their only expiring contract by sending to the Red Sox on July 13.

Every player in the organization except injured slugger is under team control through at least next season, meaning Baltimore doesn’t have to settle for deals. If the right deals don't materialize, the O’s have the flexibility to wait until the winter, or later, to build for the future through the trade market.

Manager Brandon Hyde summarized it best Monday by saying, “We might have five guys moved; we might have nobody move.”

All these factors figure to play into their calculus leading up to the Trade Deadline, when player movement should begin picking up in earnest. So what do the Orioles have to offer and what are they looking to gain? Let’s break down where the club sits on the doorstep of this year’s Deadline.

Who are the chips?
Orioles executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias is on record saying his club will listen to offers for anyone, which is unsurprising given the nascent stage of the team’s rebuild. Naturally, some players figure to be in higher demand than others. Trey Mancini is the big fish here, headlining a group that includes , , and potentially or . The reality is nobody on the rebuilding O’s is truly off the table.

With Mancini in the midst of a breakout year and under team control through 2022, it’ll take an overwhelming haul for the Orioles to move him. Like everyone else in the fold, the O's don’t have to trade Mancini, who has said often and openly that he hopes to remain in Baltimore long term. According to MLB.com’s Jon Morosi, the Indians, Astros and Rangers are among those who’ve gauged the Orioles’ pulse on the issue.

"I know these things happen quick," Mancini said. "I was in the locker room last year when all the trades went down, and none of the guys knew until basically right when it happened and they got a phone call. I don’t have any inside information. I’m just looking forward to it being 4 o’clock tomorrow."

Who is the most likely to go?
While Mancini is the least likely Oriole to be moved, Givens is the most likely. Despite his down year, a sizeable market exists for the veteran reliever, considering his experience, talent and the sheer number of teams seeking bullpen help. In his five Major League seasons, Givens has held right-handed batters to a .188 batting average and touts an ERA of 3.31, which is considerably better than his 4.54 mark this season. Still, for the Orioles, it would mean selling low on a mid-market reliever who is still controllable through 2021.

As far as potential value, Givens is a mid-market chip, persisting somewhere above already-dealt relievers Jake Diekman and Sergio Romo, but below Felipe Vazquez, Edwin Diaz and Kirby Yates. The Dodgers, Phillies, Nationals, Indians and Braves are all reportedly among the clubs interested.

Next is Villar, who has already been traded twice at the Deadline during his career. At 28, he’s having a season consistent with his track record. The veteran infielder has showcased his tantalizing skill set, albeit inconsistently. Villar leads the Orioles in multihit games (33), walks (37) and stolen bases (22), yet he is hitting .263 with a 98 OPS+. He profiles as a versatile bench option for contending teams like the Cubs, who’ve been linked to Villar and have a temporary need at second base.

What's the goal?
It depends who is involved in the deal, but in general, the Orioles are seeking blue-chip prospects to fill out a system that’s drastically improved with this year’s Draft crop. The two teenage prospects they received for Andrew Cashner represent the floor, with the ceiling being the potential return for Mancini. They’ll shoot high for Mancini, knowing they can always re-gauge his market this winter.

For the team’s other mid-level prospects, it’s difficult to handicap any potential returns. Even with Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore’s system is full of needs, from power bats at the lower levels to arms at its upper rungs. They can go several different ways, but the O’s should target high-upside players with an eye toward the future.