SAN DIEGO -- The Padres passed the true midway point of their 2022 season on a sunny July 4 afternoon at Petco Park, resolute that, this time around, the second half of their season will be different.
Last year, of course, the Padres started similarly strong through 81 games. But they collapsed down the stretch, missing the playoffs entirely, and finishing four games below .500. They completed that 2021 first half at 48-33 -- a game better than their 47-34 mark entering play Monday.
Game 82 was inauspicious enough. San Diego dropped the opener of its two-game Interleague set against the Mariners, 8-2, after a dud of a start from the typically reliable Sean Manaea. Nonetheless, there are plenty of reasons to believe the Padres’ second half will look different in 2022. Here are four of them:
1. It's a much fresher rotation
As the calendar turned from June to July last year, the cracks were showing. Yu Darvish and Blake Snell both spent time on the injured list. Rookie Ryan Weathers, who had started strong, was beginning to struggle. There were serious questions as to how the Padres would cover the final 81 starts.
This year, the path to 81 starts seems wholly manageable. They have options galore. The Padres have employed a six-man rotation, plus Nick Martinez as a swingman. As a result, their starters are fresher than usual at this time of year, considering the extra rest they've gotten between starts.
“This is probably the freshest I’ve felt in my career to this point,” said ace Joe Musgrove. “Having the extra off-day has helped me feel better for each start.”
Attrition hits every rotation at some point, particularly in the second half, when workloads build through an unrelenting schedule. But these Padres signed Martinez, traded for Manaea, got Mike Clevinger back and have seen a MacKenzie Gore breakout. So, yeah, this group seems more capable of withstanding the second-half grind than last year’s.
2. The Deadline will be different
It has to be. The Padres learned the hard way what happens when a contender with an obvious weakness refuses to address that weakness at the Trade Deadline.
A year ago, it was the rotation that needed bolstering. But Padres general manager A.J. Preller did nothing to address that weakness, believing the cost was too high on a number of different starting pitchers. He might have been right. But he paid dearly for it.
This year, it's the offense that needs an upgrade -- the outfield, specifically. Entering play Monday, Padres outfielders had slashed .222/.305/.350 with a .655 OPS that ranks 25th in the Majors.
The options should be plentiful. The Padres won't be looking for a hard-to-find up-the-middle defensive option. They just need a hitter, maybe two. They can't afford to come up empty-handed again.
3. Fernando Tatis Jr. is coming back
This is the big one. The Padres' superstar shortstop has yet to play a game this season. Sure, the Padres also need an offensive jolt on the trade market. But they won't find a bigger offensive upgrade than this one.
Tatis posted a .975 OPS last season with 42 home runs. That's some serious production at a position where the Padres have gotten very little production so far. (To be clear: That's shortstop, where Tatis is most likely to play when he returns. But even if he were to shift to the outfield, the same sentiment applies.)
Lately, the Padres' offensive deficiencies have been pronounced, with Manny Machado ailing. (The Padres star third baseman missed nine games and hasn't looked himself in five games since returning.) The Padres have scored eight runs in their last five games, with four of those runs coming in the ninth inning on Sunday. Tatis won't solve all those deficiencies. But it's hard to imagine a more impactful addition.
4. Bob Melvin
Lately, the Padres have gotten a bit sloppy. All season long, they’ve been clean on the bases and clean on defense. But in the past three games or so, they’ve made a number of blunders -- including a handful of defensive mishaps on Monday.
“The defense has always been there, the effort has always been there, it has not the last few games,” Melvin said. “It’s our job to address it and make sure we get going in the right direction again.”
The defining trait of the Padres' skipper is his steady hand. That's true when the Padres are winning. That's true when the Padres are losing.
So the Padres are in a rough patch -- their roughest patch thus far. Since the start of that Phillies series, they’re 3-8. They're also 12 games over .500 and squarely in the National League playoff picture. When they hired Melvin in October, they did so with stretches like this in mind.