MILWAUKEE – The Padres have plenty of postseason experience dotting their starting rotation.
The Brewers have Jacob Misiorowski.
As the Padres-Brewers NLDS gets underway Saturday night at American Family Field, the contrasts in starting pitching will be readily apparent. The Brewers’ starters are young, talented and largely untested, especially if Dustin May is left out of the mix for the first round. The Padres are veteran, if not as statistically high end.
At least, that’s what the regular-season numbers say. The Brewers ranked fifth in the Majors with a 3.61 starters’ ERA, despite getting the vast majority of their starts from pitchers who entered the season with fewer than two years of Major League service. Their starters combined for 15.6 WAR by the FanGraphs measure, the fourth-highest mark of any team. The Padres were 21st with a 4.42 starters’ ERA. Their starters were 27th at 6.1 fWAR.
“I think it’s in a good spot,” Brewers catcher William Contreras said of Milwaukee’s pitching. “I think these days off here this week really helped, not only for the position players but to give the pitchers an extra blow and have them be as prepared as they can possibly be for this weekend.”
Here’s what we know, and don’t know, about the teams’ plans.
Brewers
Game 1
Jacob Misiorowski, RHP
What a difference a year makes. Misiorowski (16-5, 1.80 ERA) wasn’t even a lock for the NLDS roster against the Cubs a year ago after fading at the finish line as a starter. But the Brewers did include him on the postseason roster as a reliever, and rode that wave of confidence into one of the most dominant seasons ever for a starting pitcher. The 24-year-old led the Majors in ERA (1.80), strikeouts (252), WHIP (0.80) and opponents' average (.157) – the lowest opponents’ average on record and the third-lowest WHIP.
“We really like any of our pitchers we run out there, but especially Miz,” Christian Yelich said. He’s one of the best pitchers in the game, so whenever he’s on the mound, we like our chances.”
Game 2
Logan Henderson, RHP
Henderson has made 23 appearances, all starts, over the past two seasons. He’s never allowed more than three runs. That ties the D-backs’ Zac Gallen for the longest such streak to start a career since the mound was moved to 60 feet, 6 inches in 1893. (There’s a good story about that, and MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince told it a couple of years ago.)
Of course, regular-season success doesn’t apply here, but the point is that Henderson -- who has about 10 mph less on his four-seam fastball but still finds great success with that pitch because of its unique characteristics -- has been extremely consistent so far in his career. What he doesn’t have is experience in October. Last year, he missed time with a forearm injury and was just getting healthy when it came time to set the rosters for the NLDS and NLCS.
Game 3
TBA, possible bullpen game
Here’s where it gets tricky for the Brewers. After losing the Tarik Skubal sweepstakes, they traded for May and left-handed reliever JoJo Romero with the postseason in mind. But May faltered down the stretch, unable to translate his good stuff into good results. Manager Pat Murphy has been asked a couple times about May’s potential role in the postseason, and hasn’t given a definitive answer so far. Though, it should be noted that May had terrific results this season against the Padres (1.23 ERA in 22 innings spanning three starts).
If not May, the Brewers could start left-hander Robert Gasser, who delivered a 1.67 ERA in his final six outings, starting with emergency relief of May when May was struck by a first-pitch comebacker at Citi Field on Aug. 26. Or, there's left-hander Shane Drohan in an opener role (he started most of the season but transitioned to relief late, partly to control his innings). And another left-hander, Kyle Harrison, is an option, even though he’s not stretched out. Harrison was great early, struggled mightily for much of the second half, then surged at the end in terms of his stuff.
The Brewers used openers three times in nine postseason games last year. There’s a chance they’ll do it again.
Padres
Game 1
TBA, likely Walker Buehler or Robbie Ray
The last time Buehler took the mound in the postseason, he was closing out the 2024 World Series for the Dodgers. But let’s be honest: Buehler still wasn’t himself at that point. After 2022 Tommy John surgery, Buehler said he didn’t get back to feeling like himself until this season. And it showed. In the second half, Buehler posted a 3.62 ERA, and the Padres won 10 of his 13 starts.
Ray, meanwhile, had a bit of an up-and-down showing after his Trade Deadline Day arrival. Buehler, despite the higher ERA overall, would seem like the more trustworthy candidate. But there’s merit to starting Ray, another seasoned veteran, and a left-hander who could give the Padres some matchup advantages.
Whoever doesn’t start Game 1 would presumably be lined up to start Game 4 -- but in both cases, the Padres would likely be planning on dipping into their elite bullpen early.
Game 2
TBA, likely Michael King
It’s time to start talking about King as a postseason killer. Facing the best offense in baseball in the Wild Card Series, King carried a no-hitter into the seventh inning. He’s now turned in multiple playoff starts with seven scoreless innings. King has a 2.05 career postseason ERA (with a pair of scoreless relief appearances mixed in as well).
“Tom Brady's line -- if you can execute under pressure, you're going to be a great player,” King said. “I always wanted to execute under pressure. … So that pressure, that adrenaline definitely makes me lock in a little bit more.”
King is the Padres’ ace. He’s been excellent for the entire second half. And if you line him up for Game 2, he’d be on regular rest for a potential winner-take-all Game 5 as well.
Game 3
TBA, likely Nick Pivetta
It’s hard to know what to make of Pivetta’s outing in Game 2 of the Wild Card Series against the Cubs. He only lasted 3 1/3 innings and dealt with plenty of traffic. But he also only allowed one run. And the Padres, playing with a lead, were always going to go to their bullpen early in a potential clincher.
He’ll be fresh for Game 3, at the very least. After missing nearly five months with a flexor strain in his right elbow, Pivetta has returned to the rotation, and he seemingly hasn’t missed a beat. Counting his Game 2 Wild Card Series start, Pivetta has a 1.64 ERA since returning from the IL. He’s become a legitimate No. 2 behind King.
All season, the Padres had major question marks in their starting rotation. Pivetta’s return has answered at least some of them.