The 29-19 Dodgers, the back-to-back reigning World Series Champions who reloaded their roster again in the offseason, are not leading the NL West.
After Monday’s 1-0 victory, the Padres (29-18) have overtaken Los Angeles for a half-game advantage, continuing what has become one of baseball’s best rivalries. They square off again Tuesday at 9:40 p.m. ET and Wednesday at 8:40 p.m. ET in their highly anticipated first series of the year.
And no, we won’t overreact to the first game of the series on May 19. But it’s fascinating how differently these contenders have gone about their success, a trend that mirrors not only Monday’s ballgame but also the 2025 season.
The Padres have been excellent in close games, finishing 7-4 in one-run decisions and 2-0 in extra-innings games this year. In blowouts with margins of five runs or more, they’ve struggled, going 6-10. That has all led to a small +8 run differential despite owning MLB’s third-best record.
The Dodgers have been completely the opposite. They own a whopping +93 run differential, the best in baseball, thanks in part to a 14-4 mark in “blowouts.” But they’re just 5-7 in one-run games this year and have not yet played in extra innings.
As the old saying goes, good teams find a way to win close games. But do the best teams actually do that?
The Dodgers, en route to their second consecutive title in 2025, were just 25-24 in one-run decisions but clobbered teams with a 29-10 mark in blowouts. The World Series-winning Rangers in 2023 were 37-23 in blowouts, the 2022 Astros were 35-13, the 2021 Braves 28-14 … and so on and so forth.
The Astros, at 28-16, had the best record in one-run games of that group. But the Rangers and the Braves actually finished below .500 in such games during their championship seasons.
Suffice to say, it’s still far too early to draw any conclusions about the NL West race in 2026, or to think that the Dodgers are suddenly ready to roll over and give up the crown.
But there’s plenty of heat between Los Angeles and San Diego these days, and their unique makeups add even more intrigue to what could be a season-long divisional race.