Inbox: How will Padres upgrade rotation?

Beat reporter AJ Cassavell answers questions from fans

November 9th, 2021

Four years ago, the Padres signed . Three years ago, they signed . Two years ago, they traded for , and . Last year, they landed , and .

The Padres are no strangers to blockbusters during Hot Stove season, and it's Hot Stove season once again. Let's get straight to your questions.

What's next with the starting pitching? I'd imagine general manager A.J. Preller would be in the hunt for an arm or two.
-- Kevin M., San Diego

More like an arm or four. The Padres will absolutely be looking to bolster their starting pitching this winter, and considering the way things unraveled on them in 2021, I'd imagine that starting pitching depth will be their most pressing concern.

Remember, in their most important series of the season -- their three-game series against St. Louis in mid-September with a Wild Card spot on the line -- the Padres started and in two of those games. If there's one lesson the front office needs to learn from the 2021 campaign, it's the value in optionable starters.

So rotation depth will be the top priority. But don't be surprised if the Padres go after a big-name starter, as well. After Musgrove, there are question marks surrounding the rest of the presumed rotation -- Darvish, Snell, and .

The Padres would consider it a successful offseason if they could add one big-name starter and two or three more organizational depth pieces.

The Padres need pitching. But their offense wasn't very good, either. What do they do to improve their offense?
-- Dave K.

The late-season demise of the Padres' offense might be more concerning than the pitching. At least the Padres had injuries to blame for their pitching woes. Offensively, they were healthy almost everywhere (aside from at catcher).

First and foremost, the Padres will be looking to hire a new hitting coach, after Damion Easley spent two seasons in that role. They've already hired highly respected pitching guru Ruben Niebla to fill the pitching coach vacancy. The Padres are looking for a similar splash on the hitting side, and it's a safe bet that a focal point will be getting the ball in the air with authority. The Padres' were far too ground-ball happy in 2021.

As for personnel, the Padres, in theory, can return their entire starting lineup. (Pham is a free agent, but he was essentially a part-time piece down the stretch.) But that starting lineup might need a reboot. If the next Collective Bargaining Agreement includes a universal designated hitter, that will play into the Padres' plans. But no matter what, they're going to pursue a big bat to plug into the middle of their order, which could portend some reshuffling elsewhere.

Who is more likely to be gone: Hosmer or ?
-- Devean
A relevant question -- because if Preller is going to make the type of splash he usually makes, he will likely need some payroll flexibility. The quickest way to find that flexibility would be to move the contracts of Hosmer and Myers -- who have underperformed and who could both be replaced with in-house options.

As for which of the two is likeliest to be moved, it's Myers. Hosmer has four years and $60 million remaining on his contract, so he is unlikely to move unless the Padres attach a very good prospect and/or a bunch of cash.

Myers, meanwhile, has been the subject of trade rumors for about half a decade. But this time, it feels entirely reasonable that a team might want to trade for one season of him. Myers remains a useful corner-outfield slugger, even if he’s a bit pricey. Myers himself seems to understand that.

"The reality is, I may not be here," Myers said in late September. "There's been trade talks the last four, five years. At this point, it's less complicated to trade me now than it ever has been, as far as money and years, so I know it's a possibility. And you sit here and look at it like, ‘I could be here for seven years, and that's seven losing years.’ It would be tough, possibly leaving an organization where I wasn't there to fix it, to more so be remembered for the losing times."

Do you expect to break camp with the Padres next year?
-- David, San Diego

It's just so easy to draw the parallels between Abrams in 2022 and in '19. Like Tatis, Abrams' Double-A season came to an early end because of injury. Like Tatis, Abrams will enter camp as the Padres' top prospect, per MLB Pipeline, and one of the best in the sport.

The key difference? Frankly, the Padres have a better roster now than they did three seasons ago. They're not going to promote Abrams unless he wins an everyday job. But it's not exactly clear where that everyday job would be. They have a shortstop, of course, in Tatis. Cronenworth and can share second-base duties, and Grisham is expected to be anchoring center field. Perhaps there's an opening at a corner outfield spot, but the Padres will almost certainly look to fill that opening this offseason.

It might behoove the Padres to start Abrams in the Minors. If he performs, he'd earn a callup when a need arises. Then again, if there's one thing we know about Preller, it's that he's never been shy about moving his best prospects quickly.