The one concrete thing you can say about the Padres’ rotation down the stretch is that it’s going to be very different.
With 11 series to go in the regular season, the Padres find themselves in the heat of the NL Wild Card race, currently holding the final spot with a one-game cushion over the Diamondbacks. If they can get back to the postseason for the third straight season, though, they’ll do so with a wildly different set of starters -- not just from what they had last year, but from what they had last month.
It’s no longer the case that first-year manager Craig Stammen has to get creative to find enough options to just get games to his vaunted bullpen. Now, he’s about to have more than five starters to juggle. Figuring out a five-man rotation is about to become a challenge in itself; landing on three for a Wild Card Series? That’ll be a topic many words are spent on in September.
With that in mind, here are the arguments for each candidate, grouped by situation:
Michael King
Get the easy one out of the way first. A year after being limited to one inning of relief in the Wild Card Series, King is the unquestioned leader of the rotation, leading the group in innings (149), ERA (3.38) and WHIP (1.17). King's spot is simple. The rest is hard.
The Deadline additions
Six of San Diego’s past 14 games have been started by pitchers acquired at the Trade Deadline: Casey Mize and Robbie Ray. The price for a pair of rentals was high, with the Padres losing three of their top nine prospects to bring the pair in. Both are still getting their feet under them with the new club -- Mize allowed eight runs in 3 1/3 innings in his Padres debut and Ray only covered nine frames in his first two starts.
But in the past week, they’ve combined to allow three runs in 18 innings across three quality starts. Mize especially has looked more like the guy who posted a 2.70 ERA in 16 starts to begin the year with Detroit -- shaving over a full run off his 2025 clip -- along with a .213 opposing batting average and a 0.99 WHIP.
Since June 16, meanwhile, Ray has posted a 1.62 ERA, good for fifth in MLB (min. 10 starts).
The year-long guys
The Padres did not take a flyer on Walker Buehler with the intention of him becoming their second starter, but he’s filled the role admirably. In six starts since the break, the 32-year-old has pitched to a 3.16 ERA, including logging back-to-back quality starts his last two times out.
Randy Vásquez has been as good of late, with a 3.00 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in his 22 past innings. Three of those seven outings have been starts, the other four have been following openers -- and with the way San Diego’s bullpen can star, that’s not necessarily a road to avoid.
The returning wild cards
So that’s five starters for five spots in the rotation, what’s all the fuss about? The fuss comes in the form of two guys who could alter the Padres’ outlook dramatically … when they return.
First up is Joe Musgrove, who by all accounts is nearly back. The veteran hasn’t pitched in the Majors since Oct. 2, 2024, undergoing Tommy John surgery the next week and missing all of 2025 and most of this season. But he stretched out to 70 pitches in his most recent start with Triple-A El Paso, and could return within the week.
Then, there’s Nick Pivetta. On one hand, the right-hander ended 2025 as the staff’s unquestioned ace after posting a 2.87 ERA and recording the best start of the Wild Card Series. On the other hand, he’s been out since April with elbow inflammation, and his rehab stint stalled after just 14 pitches when he walked off the field -- and he hasn’t made another appearance since.
Musgrove is going to factor into the picture sooner rather than later. If Pivetta can get all the way back in the next few weeks, it adds yet another piece to the puzzle.
The bullpen
And after all of that, there’s always the option for Stammen to piece whole games together from one of the best bullpens in the game.
A wealth of options doesn’t necessarily equate to the best option, and while San Diego starters’ collective 4.51 ERA (25th in MLB) is weighed down by openers and since-discarded options, the 3.75 ERA that King, Buehler, Vásquez, Mize and Ray have combined for is still noticeably behind the 3.58 clip the relievers have put together.
There’s enough options for Stammen to ride the hot hand, whoever that may be. And in absence of that, there’s the bullpen to cover for the potential absence of one.