PEORIA, Ariz. -- For all intents and purposes, the Padres know four starters in their Opening Day rotation. They need to find a fifth.
The question, at this stage of Spring Training, is whether that fifth starter is already in camp.
Across the past four seasons, Padres general manager A.J. Preller has often waited deep into spring to address his rotation concerns. In 2022, Preller traded for Sean Manaea on the penultimate day of Cactus League play. Two years later, he traded for Dylan Cease practically as the team was boarding its flight to Korea for its season-opening series in Seoul.
It seems unlikely Preller would make a splash like that this spring. Even still, the Padres have a largely complete offense and one of the deepest bullpens in the sport. If there’s anywhere to maneuver, it’s in the rotation.
The options in camp
The Padres are playing a numbers game. Over the winter, they added Walker Buehler, Marco Gonzales, Triston McKenzie, Germán Márquez and Griffin Canning (though Canning won’t be fully recovered from his left Achilles tear by Opening Day). JP Sears and Matt Waldron are already on board on the 40-man roster (though Waldron is also unlikely to be available by Opening Day).
They don’t need to hit on all of those starters. Heck, they don’t need half of them to hit. There’s probably only one place available in the season-opening rotation. Maybe two. If the Padres get a strong spring from one or two of those options -- that’d be plenty!
In the past two days, the Padres cycled through all five of their healthy options for that No. 5 spot. Buehler, Sears, McKenzie, Márquez and Gonzales all went multiple innings. For the most part, they impressed.
“Really productive couple days for us,” said manager Craig Stammen. “They all kind of showed who they were. … It’s going to be a tight competition all the way until the end.”
The depth is useful. And it might be needed. The front of the rotation is comprised of Nick Pivetta, Michael King and Joe Musgrove (with Randy Vásquez as the likely No. 4 starter). Musgrove missed the 2025 season due to Tommy John surgery. King missed half of it with a nerve issue and a knee injury. Pivetta, the rotation’s stalwart, had his scheduled start Sunday pushed back as he deals with arm fatigue. “Nothing major,” Stammen said.
Still, it’s a reminder how crucial the depth could be. They’d be much better served to have seven or eight trustworthy options. But that’s tricky, too, with Márquez and Buehler able to decline an assignment to the Minors and Gonzales eligible to do so as well if another team offers him a spot on its big league roster.
The pros and cons of a trade
Remember when Preller swung five trades involving 22 players in the span of a few hours just before the Trade Deadline? Somewhat stunningly, he hasn’t made a trade since.
Needless to say, that isn’t like Preller. But he addressed his needs this offseason through free agency, bringing back King, while adding Sung-Mun Song, Miguel Andujar, Nick Castellanos and some other depth pieces on offense and in the bullpen.
Given the pitchers already on board this spring, Preller likely wants to see how that group fares before turning to the trade front. The performance of the pitchers currently in camp will dictate the level of need.
There’s some justification for dealing from the bullpen, a clear position of strength, to add to the rotation. But Preller has reiterated time and again that he’s hesitant to deal from that bullpen if it means that strength might be significantly weakened.
The free-agent market
A small handful of free-agent starters remain unsigned. Among them: Lucas Giolito, Zack Littell and Patrick Corbin. Giolito is the most interesting name of the bunch, but he’d also come with the biggest price tag. It’s unclear just how much room to maneuver the Padres have with their payroll.
It’s far likelier that the Padres are done adding to their rotation mix, at least via free agency. They’re happy with the arms they’ve brought in -- and happy to see them compete for what is likely one place at the back of the rotation. (Early talk of a six-man rotation seems to have died down.)
Verdict: The state of the race
The two pitchers who can be sent to the Minors -- McKenzie and Sears -- have struggled the most. With McKenzie, Stammen noted the Padres might be playing a long game to get him back on track after three years of struggles.
As such, this might soon blossom into a three-man race for one spot among Márquez, Gonzales and Buehler. From there, it’s wide open. But it feels like the Padres have liked what they’ve seen enough, for now, to shy away from making another addition.