This story was excerpted from AJ Cassavell’s Padres Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
SAN DIEGO -- And exhale.
The Padres are off today. If it feels like they haven’t had many of these lately … you’re right. The Padres finished the first half with 17 games in 17 days. They opened the second half with 26 in 27.
On June 25 -- at the start of all this -- the Padres’ offense was still underwhelming. Their rotation was in shambles. I looked at the schedule and genuinely wondered how they’d make it to August 13th.
Well, here we are. And the Padres are actually in better shape than they were when this brutal stretch began.
They have a one-game lead for the final Wild Card spot in the National League. They’re eight games above .500. They’ve reinforced their starting rotation by adding two legitimate weapons and might have another weapon or two on the way back from injury.
There are 40 games left. It’s the fourth quarter of the baseball season. Here’s how the Padres can complete their playoff push:
1. Ride the bullpen
The Padres will enjoy their well-deserved off-day today. And next Thursday. And the Thursday after that. And, in total, five straight Thursdays.
The schedule was relentless for the last two months. Down the stretch, it is not. That might prove crucial for the Padres’ playoff chances. And not just because of the rest it provides a team that -- like every team at this time of year -- is a bit banged up.
There was so much emphasis on preserving the pitching staff during this run. The bullpen specifically. Major props go to manager Craig Stammen for navigating it. It was, by far, his best work of the season -- a longtime workhorse reliever putting his knowledge of that role to good use.
Now, Stammen will be tasked with a different sort of challenge. It’s not so much about preserving your relievers. It’s about maximizing them. You’ve got Mason Miller and Adrian Morejon. You’ve got a deep group of middle-innings options. There are off-days to play with.
I think we got a taste in last week’s finale in Arizona when Stammen used his four highest-leverage arms to cover the final five innings. Then again yesterday, when Stammen went to Bradgley Rodriguez for the fifth. If the Padres are doing it right, we’ll see more of that over the next few weeks. Although …
2. Rely on this new-look rotation
In theory, the Padres’ deep relief corps should seriously ease the burden on the rotation. But … maybe that rotation won’t need it?
Stammen might have a tightrope to walk suddenly. This is no longer “pitching chaos.” Michael King has been very good. Casey Mize and Robbie Ray are still settling in, but they have extensive track records. Walker Buehler and Randy Vásquez have been much better of late.
That’s a legit five-man rotation. With Joe Musgrove on his way back and Nick Pivetta continuing his buildup after a pause in his recovery. The Padres have the ability to cover six innings with high-leverage relief arms if they need it. They also have the ability to cover six or seven innings on any given night with their starter.
A month ago, they were asking who could possibly cover all these innings. Now, Stammen will need to make decisions between very capable arms.
3. A deep offense
Let’s not lose sight of the role the offense plays in all of that. Take Tuesday for example. There was every chance the Padres might’ve gone to their electric bullpen early in a close game. But the revamped offense had five runs on the board by the second inning -- and continued to tack on.
The result? Walker Buehler just did his thing. He worked six innings of one-run ball, preserving that bullpen, and setting the Padres up for an easy 11-2 win. Then, that fresh bullpen was able to carry San Diego to an 11-inning victory on Wednesday.
That’s all possible because of guys like Luis Rengifo and Ty France. It’s possible because the catching tandem of Luis Campusano and Freddy Fermin has been red-hot. The recent addition of Austin Hays has proven extremely impactful. (Gavin Sheets against righties and Hays against lefties feels like a perfect platoon.)
Add it all up, and there’s just not any spot in the lineup for any opposing pitcher to take a breath.
4. Let the stars keep mashing
The biggest reason the Padres have turned things around lately -- and the biggest reason they’ve managed to thrive during the past month and a half: Jackson Merrill, Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. have carried them.
As they should. That’s what they get paid (handsomely) to do.
They’re mashing. And now the Padres are one of the hottest teams in baseball.
I don’t know if Merrill is going to keep raking at this clip. I don’t know if Tatis and Machado will be as red-hot as they’ve been over the past month. But I certainly think their recent surges are a lot more indicative of who they are as hitters than their numbers from earlier this season. At least, that’s what their track records tell us.
As we’ve known all along: How Machado, Merrill and Tatis go … so go the San Diego Padres.
It’s no coincidence, then, that the Padres managed to survive such a brutal stretch. Their superstars have been superstars. Their role players have provided all the support those superstars have needed. And their pitching, somehow, found a way.
A quarter of the season to go. But they’ve made it through the hard part. Now, for the fun stuff.