This story was excerpted from AJ Cassavell’s Padres Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

New Year … new-look Padres?

After a disappointing 2023 season, that’s the resolution in San Diego.

Already, there’s been a significant amount of change for the Padres entering 2024. Mike Shildt has replaced Bob Melvin in the manager’s chair. Juan Soto is off to the Bronx, in exchange for a boatload of controllable pitching -- the pitching the Padres so desperately needed.

And before the 2024 season gets underway, more change is coming. The Padres have plenty of question marks on their roster, notably in the rotation and the outfield. In a slow-moving market, they’re likely to be active on both the free-agency and trade fronts.

As the calendar turns, here’s a look at what might lie ahead for the Padres in 2024:

Biggest question to answer before Spring Training
Do the Padres have enough pitching? And if not, where do they find it?

There are other holes on this roster, particularly in the outfield. But the sheer number of innings -- quality innings -- that must be replaced is massive.

The Soto trade helped this cause in a big way (albeit at an awfully steep cost). The Padres landed four young pitchers, all of whom should contribute in 2024. Meanwhile, the Yuki Matsui signing should help address some leverage relief innings.

There's still work to be done -- some undoubtedly via free agency, but general manager A.J. Preller has found frontline pitching on the trade front before.

One player poised to have a breakout season
Is it possible to be the headliner in a trade package for Soto… and still be underrated? The Padres certainly feel that’s the case with right-hander Michael King, who was dominant in New York last season upon his move to the rotation.

“It was really exciting,” Preller said. “Combination of stuff with command. … He was one of the better relievers in the league last year. And honestly, in the last two months of the season, was one of the top starters, too.”

Indeed, King posted a 2.23 ERA with 5.67 strikeouts per walk as a starter. Considering the track record of pitching coach Ruben Niebla, King could be poised for a huge 2024 season.

Prospect to watch in 2024
Lots to choose from here. Jakob Marsee, Graham Pauley and Jairo Iriarte rank among the most intriguing upper-level pieces who could contribute in the big leagues very soon. At age 20, the Padres' No. 2 prospect, Jackson Merrill, can work his way into that mix with a strong spring.

But the easy answer here is Ethan Salas. Already the No. 5 overall prospect according to MLB Pipeline, Salas checked every box as a 17-year-old playing in his first pro season.

So what’s next for a kid who worked his way to Double-A at age 17 -- and held his own? He couldn’t possibly reach the big leagues as an 18-year-old in 2024 … could he?

One prediction for the new year
Even with what’s likely to be a significantly lower payroll in 2024, the Padres will win more games than they did in '23.

We can all agree that the 2023 season was a strange one, right? The Padres finished 9-23 in one-run games. They started the year 0-12 in extra-inning games.

This isn’t to say there weren’t underlying issues that led to the team’s underwhelming 82-80 record in 2023. There were. But there was also a huge amount of weirdness and just plain bad luck.

The Padres no longer have Soto. Blake Snell and Josh Hader are likely to depart as well. But a core that includes Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Fernando Tatis Jr., Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish should still compete for the playoffs on a yearly basis -- 2024 included.