What are the next steps for Harper's return?

April 15th, 2023

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PHILADELPHIA -- The questions surrounding Bryce Harper potentially making an early return from Tommy John surgery all started when the Phillies opted not to place him on the 60-day injured list to begin the season.

That speculation increased when Harper started taking batting practice on the field last week, then it went to another level entirely when manager Rob Thomson said Harper could probably hit in Minor League game action right now -- and then revealed the superstar is learning a new position.

With so many moving parts, let’s recap exactly where everything stands with Harper:

What is Harper able to do?
He’s been taking daily batting practice, and he recently progressed to hitting off a high-velocity and a curveball machine. He’s also running the bases and taking grounders in the infield. As of Friday, he started feet-first sliding drills.

What can’t he do yet?
Slide headfirst. That’s really the last major obstacle for Harper to get back in the lineup. The concern is that if he slides a certain way before he’s cleared, he could rupture the repaired UCL in his right elbow. Obviously, Harper also isn’t throwing yet, but that won’t happen for a while -- and it won’t preclude him from rejoining the Phillies as their designated hitter.

Why can’t they just tell him not to slide?
Albeit a logical question, it’s not all that realistic. For starters, Harper has played baseball his entire life, and sliding in certain situations is just reactionary. Even if he could condition himself to avoid diving into second on a close play, though, there are plenty of other situations that Harper might not avoid.

Harper could be on first base and need to dive back on a pick-off attempt. He may run from first to second on a ground ball and need to hit the dirt to avoid being drilled by the relay throw from second to first. He could be involved in a collision with an infielder. He could not slide at all, but just get tagged wrong on his elbow and set him back for months.

And does anyone expect Harper -- or anyone for that matter -- to keep himself from diving for the back corner of the plate as he barrels toward home representing the potential game-tying run in the late innings?

OK, so … when will he get clearance?
This is really the key to everything -- and the Phillies haven’t said. They’ve been coy about divulging when Harper will meet with the doctors again, but it’s a safe bet that he will be checked out in the next couple of weeks.

Is he really learning first base?
Yes.

Will that help the Phils activate him quicker?
No. Harper will first return as a DH before he’s ready to play the field, regardless of position.

Then, what’s the point?
Long-term flexibility. With Rhys Hoskins’ season-ending injury, the Phillies don’t have a clear answer at first base. Darick Hall was thrust into the starting role, only to sustain a torn UCL in his right thumb that will sideline him for two months. That has left the Phils to use Alec Bohm and Kody Clemens to soak up all the first-base reps.

Beyond just helping fill the void at first base, if Harper can be used somewhere other than DH -- something that previously didn’t seem feasible in 2023 -- that opens up a lot of options for both Thomson and Dave Dombrowski. Thomson could pencil in Harper at first and allow Kyle Schwarber or Nick Castellanos to DH, improving the Phillies’ outfield defense. Plus, it opens up the option to get catcher J.T. Realmuto out from behind the plate occasionally while keeping his bat in the lineup.

It would also free up Dombrowski at the Trade Deadline to potentially acquire another outfielder, as opposed to being locked into looking only for a first baseman. If Harper is limited to DH, then Schwarber and Castellanos will need to play the outfield every day. Obviously, Realmuto, Trea Turner, Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott aren’t getting replaced, so that would restrict Dombrowski to looking strictly at first basemen. Harper playing first expands Dombrowski’s net to first basemen, outfielders or designated hitters.

So when will Harper actually be back?
Likely sooner than originally expected, but it’s also not going to be in the next week or two. Harper still has significant hurdles to clear, and the Phillies aren’t going to take any chances with a guy who they signed through 2031 to the largest free-agent contract (13 years, $330 million) in MLB history at the time.