Every time we think we have a quiet moment in prospect-land, something else exciting happens.
These days, the buzz has mostly been about guys getting called up to the big leagues. It's been a fairly steady stream:
July 31: Max Clark
Aug. 3: George Lombard Jr.
Aug. 5: Angel Genao
Aug. 7: Kaelen Culpepper
Aug. 15: Joshua Báez
Aug. 22: Kade Anderson
Aug: 28: Walker Jenkins
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It's been an extremely small sample size, but combined, this group has amassed 2.9 bWAR as of Friday morning, and Jenkins has yet to make his debut. These guys aren't just coming up; they're making an impact.
In these dog days of summer, callups aren't only providing a boost to their respective clubs. It’s providing good podcast fodder: We answered a question in this week’s MLB Pipeline Podcast episode about who might get called up and provide a Randy Arozarena-like lift in the postseason, so give that a listen. (We also talked with Angels top prospect Arjun Nimmala!)
These callups are also giving me renewed energy to answer your prospect-related questions for this week's MLB Pipeline Inbox.
You asked for a guess, and the guess was that the third round far outproduces the 11th in terms of big leaguers. But then I had to check.
I used Drafts starting back in 2012, when the new bonus pool system was instituted because that’s what made Round 11 stand out as the traditional start of "Day 3." Even though the Draft now is completed in two days, scouts still refer to Round 11-20 selections as "Day 3 drafts." I didn’t count the 2020 Draft, which was only five rounds long, for obvious reasons. It’s been more recently that the 11th round, in particular, has been a place where high-end high schoolers get over-slot deals -- your example of Hope fits: He got $400,000 to sign -- so some more patience for big league products is needed in the most recent Drafts. Here’s the breakdown:
Year: 3rd Round and 11th Round
2012: 13 and 2
2013: 15 and 10
2014: 15 and 4
2015: 14 and 7
2016: 16 and 10
2017: 15 and 5
2018: 16 and 7
2019: 12 and 8
2020
2021: 12 and 8
2022: 13 and 6
2023: 4 and 3
2024: 1 and 0
2025: 0 and 0
Total: 146 and 70
Average: 11.23 and 5.38
So it’s not even that close, though the 2013 and 2016 11th rounds deserve a tip of the cap for resulting in double-digit big leaguers. Chad Green had an 8.0-WAR career while Zack Littell is at 7.9 and is still in the big leagues. They were the first two picks in Round 11 in 2013, and both signed for just $100,000. The star of the 2016 11th round is Bryan Baker, who has spent parts of six years in the big leagues and emerged as an All-Star closer for the Rays this year.
Fischer has been on our Top 100 previously, and his power surge is understandably making it more difficult to understand why he wouldn't be on the list now. He just surpassed the 40-home run mark and leads all of the Minor Leagues in long balls with 42. He's third in slugging and his 157 wRC+ is sixth best in the Minors as well.
The one, big thing that's held him back is his penchant for swinging and missing. He currently has a 33.7-percent strikeout rate, 34.0 percent since he got to Double-A. For the year, he has a 46-percent miss rate against all non-fastballs, according to Synergy, a number that hasn't improved much up a level (45 percent). He's hit .168 with a .295 SLG against breaking and offspeed stuff with Biloxi, so there's some concern about all of this working as he continues to see more advanced pitching. He is slugging .883 against Double-A heaters and does see enough pitches and draw enough walks to get to fastball counts, but will big league pitchers who can land breaking stuff in the zone in those counts give in? Could he be more of a "three true outcome" kind of hitter? There's a place for that in a big league lineup, but it's not as much of a slam dunk Top 100 guy, especially when you throw in his defensive limitations and the possibility that he's a first baseman only.
I'm leaving out guys like Francisco Renteria and Angeibel Gomez, standouts in the Rookie-level Dominican Summer League who are already on our Top 100 and could very easily make huge jumps up the list when they come stateside for the first time in 2027. There are a few guys who are close, or have come up in Top 100 conversation already, so seeing them jump into, and up, the list next season is very plausible. A sampling, in alphabetical order:
Hayden Alvarez, OF, Angels No. 3: Could be plus hitter with plus run tool.
Cristian Arguelles, OF, Rockies No. 5: Dominated complex league, more than holding own in Single-A.
Luis De León, LHP, Orioles No. 7: Bat-missing stuff with plus fastball and slider.
Tanner Franklin, RHP, Cardinals No. 5: 6-foot-5 righty who can touch triple-digits and full pitch mix.
Bryan Rincon, SS, Phillies No. 5: Turned in a 20-20 season in Double-A with plus defense at short.
Héctor Rodríguez, OF, Reds No. 4: Always has hit the ball hard, now tapping into power.
Miguel Sime Jr., RHP, Nationals No. 10: Throws 100 mph consistently with K rate over 16 per nine, just needs better command.
We rolled out top 10 rankings based on four position groupings. Here's the top team in each:
Infielders: Brewers
Outfielders: Dodgers
Pitching: Marlins
Catching: Twins
No organization showed up on all four lists, but five teams were on three of the four, so any conversation about which organizations have the most balance must start with those groups. Using a scoring system of 10 points for first place in a ranking, here's how those five systems stack up:
Team: P, INF, OF, C (Total)
Cardinals: 9, 0, 7, 9 (25)
Mariners: 6, 0, 9, 1, (16)
Rays: 0, 6, 2, 8 (16)
Tigers: 4, 0, 4, 4 (12)
Pirates: 1, 0, 3, 3 (7)
The Cardinals appear to be the clear answer to this question, landing in the top four in the three categories they ranked in. There's a reason why we had them No. 4 on our most recent update to the farm system rankings.