Happy Arizona Fall League Championship Day to all who celebrate. While I'm still excited about Reds catcher Alfredo Duno’s three-homer night to get his Peoria Javelinas to the title game, this time of year is always bittersweet. It also marks the end of prospects playing baseball in the United States (we still have winter ball to watch!).
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And of course to keep us warm during these colder, baseball-barren months, we have your prospect questions. So let’s get to them!
We recently wrote a story picking a 2026 Rookie of the Year candidate for each team and, as luck would have it, all three of these guys were the selections for their respective teams. I do think all three, barring trades, will get plenty of time in the Cardinals, Yankees and Phillies lineups. I’ll put the potential of making the Opening Day roster like so:
Wetherholt: 80%
Crawford: 70%
Jones: 50%
I feel pretty certain Wetherholt (MLB No. 5) lands in that lineup and it’s just a question of whether he slots in at second or third, depending on personnel decisions made at the big league level. It sounds like Crawford (MLB No. 54) will be given every opportunity to land an outfield spot in Philadelphia, but we also know the Phillies are always contending and free agent signings or trades could fill up the outfield. Right now, it looks like there could be a spot for Jones (MLB No. 99), but like with the Phillies, the Yankees are trying to win and could re-sign players or bring in others. That, plus Jones’ swing-and-miss concerns, had me give him a slightly lower percentage.
I have to admit, I kind of dig the term ‘hopium.’ Valdez was just named the Arizona Fall League’s Offensive Player of the Year. He cooled off some after hitting eight homers in his first nine Fall League games, but he still led the AFL with those eight home runs, as well as in RBIs (27) and SLG (.842). He ranked second in OPS (1.355) and total bases (48), while ranking third in extra-base hits (11), fifth in walks (19), sixth in OBP (.513) and AVG (.368), and tied for eighth in runs scored (19).
By now, everyone knows the caveat we attach to any talk about AFL stats: Don’t put too much weight on it, in either direction. We’re talking 80 plate appearances for Valdez, a way too small sample size to draw any large conclusions. Even so, I’m bullish on Valdez, who is currently No. 15 on the Pirates’ Top 30, but who will most certainly move up the list in 2026.
It’s not just the AFL performance, though I’m forgiving of the cool off given that he finished his year with 142 games played, way more than he’s ever played before in his career. But when you combine what he did in Arizona with the adjustments he made in Double-A Altoona, that makes me more of a believer. After hitting .196 with a .600 OPS in July following his promotion, the 21-year-old right-handed hitter made adjustments and put up a .311/.407/.522 slash line with six homers in August. Yeah, there’s swing-and-miss to his game, but he’s a better pure hitter than he’s given credit for. I think he could be ready for Pittsburgh at some point in 2026, where his power and run production will be welcomed, as will his high energy and infectious personality.
It certainly didn’t hurt. See AFL caveat above, though I’ll say strong pitching performances stand out more there because it’s such a hitting-friendly league (the league as a whole hit .269 this fall). De León did throw just 16 1/3 innings in the AFL, but his 22 strikeouts and .179 batting average against were impressive. His 12 walks do point to the one thing holding him back at all: his command.
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I will say that I was talking to someone from the Orioles about how our current No. 21 Orioles prospect was under-ranked. And that was after just one AFL outing, so moving him up is already on our radar. Stuff-wise, the lefty deserves a jump, and his stuff was pretty nasty as one of the top performers in the Fall Stars Game. We haven’t dug into the O’s new list yet, but a cursory look at it has me think De León probably lands in the top 10 and I could see him being the second-highest ranked pitching prospect in the system after Esteban Mejia (BAL No. 7).
Jim Callis and I are currently working on the Draft Top 100, due to come out in early December, so we’ll have a clearer picture of that college hitting crop. One thing we won’t know until the Draft Lottery at the Winter Meetings, though, is when the Rays will pick. The Rays finished the year 77-85 and if we were still doing things based on reverse order of standings, they’d have the No. 7 pick in the 2026 Draft. They do have a 3.03 percent chance of landing the No. 1 pick via the lottery and you should never say never. For now, I ran all the Draft teams through a randomizer and ended up with the Rays picking eighth overall.
There should be some college bat options there, should the Rays want to go in that direction. A lot can happen between now and next July, but as of this moment, only UCLA’s Roch Cholowsky seems sure to go at the very top from this bucket, though college hitters who perform tend to float up higher as teams try to find that advanced bat who can help in a hurry. But here are some names that could be around in that area who will undoubtedly be scouted heavily by teams in the top 10 (listed alphabetically):
Tyler Bell, SS, Kentucky
Drew Burress, OF, Georgia Tech
Derek Curiel, OF, Louisiana State
AJ Gracia, OF, Virginia
Vahn Lackey, C, Georgia Tech
Justin Lebron, SS, Auburn
Sawyer Strosnider, OF, Texas Christian