Inbox: Exploring the highest upside non-Top 100 prospects

6:20 PM UTC

Happy Opening Day! Triple-A Opening Day, that is. And I hope you have enjoyed the first two days of the big league season. Not sure if I'm more excited about Chase DeLauter's debut or Kevin McGonigle's.

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Seven Top 100 Prospects are set to graduate in the first eight days of this season, so we'll have some new faces joining the list, including two on Saturday. Some of these guys I'm about to mention will make the list in the near future.

In terms of pure tools, Giants outfielder Dakota Jordan comes to mind. Even though his "Baby Bo" nickname is a bit blasphemous, he has double-plus raw power and speed and came within one hit and one RBI of winning the Single-A California League triple crown last year. He needs to develop further at the plate but did cut his strikeout rate from 27 percent at Mississippi State to 23 percent in his first full season and his tools are crazy.

Other hitters of note include Giants shortstop Luis Hernández, Mariners outfielder Yorger Bautista, Astros outfielder Kevin Alvarez and shortstop Xavier Neyens, Brewers third baseman Andrew Fischer and Athletics outfielder Devin Taylor. Hernandez signed this January, while everyone else in that group turned pro last year. Besides Hernández, it would be easy to load up on other top players from the 2026 international class, including Mets shortstop Wandy Asigen and Phillies outfielder Francisco Renteria.

Among pitchers, Marlins right-hander Kevin Defrank has the most upside. He's just 17 years old and the 6-foot-5, 202-pounder already sits at 97 mph and regularly touches triple digits with his lively four-seam fastball -- and he commands it well. He has advanced feel for an 88-91 mph splitter/changeup and his upper-80s slider has plenty of sweep and looks like it too will become a plus offering.

Other arms in the discussion include righties Caden Scarborough (Rangers), Gage Wood (Phillies) and Kendry Chourio (Royals), Christian Zazueta (Dodgers) and Brody Brecht (Rockies). In the subcategory of pitchers with lofty ceilings but also health questions, righties River Ryan (Dodgers), Daniel Espino (Guardians) and Alejandro Rosario (Nationals) stand out. Lefties Connor Prielipp (Twins) and Ricky Tiedemann (Blue Jays) fit in that latter group as well.

Jason is not only our supervising editor for breaking news, but also provides plenty of thought-provoking questions for the Pipeline Inbox. McGonigle (No. 2 on the Top 100) collected four hits in his big league debut yesterday, while Wetherholt (No. 5) slammed a two-run homer.

Roki Sasaki (No. 1) was the only top five overall prospect to debut on Opening Day in 2025, while 2024 just missed having a dynamic duo with Jackson Chourio (No. 2) and Wyatt Langford (No. 6). But having two of them break into the Majors on Opening Day isn't that uncommon.

On Opening Day 2023, Jordan Walker (No. 4) and Anthony Volpe (No. 5) broke into the Majors. The year before that, 2022 had three top-five prospects doing so with Bobby Witt Jr. (No. 1), Julio Rodriguez (No. 3) and Spencer Torkelson (No. 4). While the pandemic affected both 2020 and 2021, Fernando Tatis Jr. (No. 2) and Eloy Jimenez (No. 3) debuted on Opening Day in 2019.

My first instinct is to go with a pitcher because big league staffs are so fluid, so give me Marlins left-hander Robby Snelling. I also considered Red Sox lefty Payton Tolle and Mets right-hander Jonah Tong, both of whom made their big league debuts last season.

I ran this question by my Pipeline colleagues as well. Sam Dykstra went with Tolle, while Jonathan Mayo opted for Guardians second baseman Travis Bazzana. My top position-player choice would be Mariners shortstop Colt Emerson.

I could quibble about whether Florida shortstop Lawson or Oregon State right-hander Dax Whitney is the top prospect in 2027 Draft, but I love the question and the apples-to-apples comparison to UCLA shortstop Roch Cholowsky. Still the prohibitive favorite to go No. 1 this July, Cholowsky is slashing .352/.475/.747 with 10 homers in 24 games. Larson is batting .370/.586/.890 with 10 homers in 25 contests.

Cholowsky and Lawson are comparable hitters with the ability to control the strike zone and produce for both average and power. Lawson does have the advantage of batting left-handed and faces better competition in the Southeastern Conference, while Cholowsky has a longer track record and was considered a clearly superior prospect at the high school stage of their careers.

Lawson has average speed and might be a bit quicker, but where Cholowsky really separates himself is on defense. He's a plus defender with a plus arm who definitely will stick at shortstop, while Lawson has more of a solid arm and projects as a corner infielder. That's why Cholowsky would go ahead of Lawson if they were in the same Draft, though Lawson very well could be the second college player of the board if he were eligible this year.