I hope all of you enjoyed Opening Day yesterday ... and are enjoying Triple-A Opening Day today! What a great time of year.
After saying that it didn't spark any personal vehemence, I proceeded to get vehement on the latest Pipeline Podcast about the Orioles sending Jackson Holliday to Triple-A. Baltimore GM Mike Elias said in December that Holliday had a "very strong possibility of making the team" and the best prospect in baseball looked increasingly comfortable at the plate as Spring Training progressed.
Yes, Holliday is still just 20 years old. Yes, he has played only 18 games in Triple-A and hasn't faced many quality left-handers as he has rocketed through the Minors. But for a team with realistic World Series aspirations, Holliday can do a lot to help win games.
Looking at our Top 100 Prospects list, none of the other moves to have guys begin the season in the Majors or the Minors was really very surprising. I didn't necessarily envision Jared Jones (MLB's No. 60 prospect) making the Pirates' rotation at the outset of Spring Training, but he showcased quality stuff while not allowing an earned run in 16 1/3 Grapefruit League innings and might be Pittsburgh's second-best starter behind Mitch Keller.
It was last week's Pipeline Inbox, with Jonathan Mayo saying that as impressive as Burns, the Wake Forest right-hander, has been this spring, there was no debate about him versus 2023 No. 1 overall pick Paul Skenes because the latter has a case for being the best pitching prospect in Draft history. And I agree with Jonathan.
I also agree with Kyle: Burns versus Arkansas left-hander Hagen Smith is a much closer call. Those are the top two pitching prospects in the 2024 Draft and both have been spectacular so far. Burns (MLB's No. 16 Draft prospect) has posted a 1.93 ERA with a 68/12 K/BB ratio in 37 1/3 innings, while Smith (No. 15) has logged a 1.54 ERA with a .136 opponent average and 72/10 K/BB ratio in 35 frames.
Both aces operate primarily with a fastball and slider. Burns averages 98 mph with his heater and 88 with his slide piece, compared to 96 and 84 for Smith, though Smith gets slightly more swings and misses with both weapons. The same is true with the splitter he uses as a changeup, compared to Burns' cambio.
Smith has the advantage of being left-handed, while Burns throws a few more strikes -- I'm going back and forth as I write this. Burns' pure stuff is a little better, so I'll take him, but just barely.
The Guardians own the No. 1 overall pick and certainly aren't afraid to spend a first-round selection on a high schooler. They've done so seven times in the last nine Drafts: Brady Aiken (2015), Will Benson (2016), Bo Naylor and Ethan Hankins (2018), Daniel Espino (2019), Carson Tucker (2020) and Ralphy Velazquez (2023). But I'd be shocked if a prepster goes 1-1 this July.
In a down year for high school prospects, the lone candidate is Jackson Prep (Flowood, Miss.) outfielder Konnor Griffin. Though Griffin (MLB Pipeline's No. 8 Draft prospect) has the best all-around tools in the Draft and is crushing Mississippi high school competition this spring, Georgia outfielder/first baseman Charlie Condon (No. 4) and Oregon State second baseman Travis Bazzana (No. 3) are having monster seasons and come with huge ceilings and far less risk.
Factor in some other college bats -- as well as Burns and Smith -- and Griffin might go closer to No. 10 than No. 1. He shouldn't, but it could happen.
I'd like to see how Arias performs in his U.S. debut, which will begin in May in the Rookie-level Arizona Complex League, but he has the talent to make the Top 100 in short order. He's still just 17 but is already 6-foot-2 and 185 pounds and has a rare combination of hitting ability, power and understanding of the strike zone. Signed for $2,697,500 out of the Dominican Republic in January 2023, the Giants' No. 6 prospect broke into pro ball by slashing .414/.539/.793 in the Rookie-level Dominican Summer League.
As for a Giants pitching prospect ready to take a big step forward, I'd go with underrated right-hander Hayden Birdsong (San Francisco's No. 7 prospect), if he didn't already break out in 2023. Keep your eye on righty Trevor McDonald (No. 14), who signed for second-round cash ($797,500) as an 11th-rounder in 2019 but has been slowed by the pandemic shutdown and repeated hamstring injuries. His fastball and curveball keep improving and are now plus offerings, and his strong finish in High-A Eugene last year has San Francisco thinking he could become a No. 3 starter.