Inbox: Ranking O's No. 1 picks; how 2024 Draft class stacks up to '23

April 12th, 2024

It's still very early in their big league careers, but Adley Rutschman and Bobby Witt Jr. look like they're headed to becoming the best top two picks in any Draft. The 2019 Draft duo's bar to clear -- weighing the success of both players equally -- is B.J. Surhoff and Will Clark from 1985, which was the best Draft ever.

How close would you put the recent Orioles trio of #1's overall? And how would you order them? -- @OriolesStatist1

This question came on the heels of the Orioles calling up baseball's best prospect, Jackson Holliday, on Wednesday and me updating my rankings of the best No. 1 overall picks of all time. @OriolesStatist1 conflated Baltimore's two recent No. 1 selections (Rutschman, Holliday) with their three recent No. 1 prospects in baseball (Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Holliday), but it's still a fine question.

My rankings focused on players who already have spent at least a decade in the Majors, rather than trying to extrapolate what Rutschman and Holliday might do. I do expect that both will crack the Top 10 when all is said and done, and they're both talented enough to push into the top five.

Rutschman is the best all-around catching prospect I've seen since I started covering prospects in 1988, and Holliday might be the best hitting prospect in that time. Both are off to sensational starts in their careers.

I'd give Rutschman the edge over Holliday as a prospect because of the positional value of a catcher versus a second baseman. Holliday reached the big leagues at age 20 compared to Rutschman's age 24 and plays a less demanding position, so he'll probably post bigger career numbers.

Would the top 5 Draft prospects in 2023 be the top 5 prospects if they were eligible in 2024? How do Condon and Bazzana stack up? -- @Blahbla92342524

MLB Pipeline's top five-ranked prospects in the 2023 Draft -- Louisiana State right-hander Paul Skenes and outfielder Dylan Crews, Florida outfielder Wyatt Langford, North Carolina high school outfielder Walker Jenkins and Indiana prep outfielder Max Clark, in that order -- all would have been legitimate candidates to go No. 1 overall in a less-stacked crop. Not surprisingly, they wound up being the first five selections, with Clark leapfrogging Langford and Jenkins into the No. 3 spot.

This spring, Georgia outfielder/third baseman Charlie Condon (.484/.588/1.133, 23 homers in 34 games) and Oregon State second baseman Travis Bazzana (.466/.608/1.060, 18 homers in 31 games) are having special seasons and have established themselves as the top two prospects available. If we combined the two Draft classes, Condon would be in the Skenes/Crews/Langford tier where you could line them up in any order and justify it.

Bazzana would rank ahead of Clark for most teams. Bazzana versus Jenkins would be more of a split camp, with Jenkins' medical history (surgery on both hips in high school) perhaps playing a factor. Jenkins has a higher ceiling -- and maybe a higher ceiling than any of the college position players -- but Bazzana has a higher floor.

Where would you realistically select Nick Kurtz in this year's draft? -- @StevieDAles97

Kurtz ranked No. 2 on MLB Pipeline's preseason Draft Top 100, and coming into the year I thought he was the best fit for the power-starved Guardians with the No. 1 overall choice. The Wake Forest star is a complete hitter with well-above-average power to all fields and no discernible weakness at the plate, and he's also a plus defender at first base.

Then Kurtz began his junior year by slashing .217/.467/.400 with three homers in his first 19 games while also missing six contests with a shoulder injury. In a year with several top college prospects producing monster numbers at the plate, he looked like he might go closer to No. 10 than No. 1.

And then Kurtz turned back into his normal devastating self again. He has gone 15-for-28 in his last seven games and homered in each of his last six contests, going deep a total of 10 times, including a streak of six blasts in seven at-bats. He's now up to .318/.512/.807 and teams love his bat just as much as they did entering 2024.

The only real question with Kurtz is his injury history, which includes shoulder surgery in high school, a rib issue that knocked him out of the 2023 College World Series semifinals and more shoulder woes this spring. I can't see a club taking Kurtz over Condon, but a team comfortable with his medicals could take him in the 2-5 range. I don't see any way he falls out of the top 10.

Who is the most underrated pitching prospect in baseball, Jim? -- @LanceBroz

Great question from my "Road To Wrigley" teammate Lance Brozdowski, who does a lot of data-driven analysis of pitchers when he's not working for the Marquee Sports Network. I considered Pirates right-hander Thomas Harrington (currently sidelined with a slight rotator cuff strain) and Diamondbacks left-hander Yu-Min Lin, but my pick is Mets righty Christian Scott.

Florida usually has one of the deepest pitching staffs in college baseball, so Scott made just five starts and was mostly a reliever in his three seasons with the Gators. A fifth-round pick in 2021, he broke out last year with a 2.57 ERA, .199 opponents' average against and 107/12 K/BB ratio in 87 2/3 innings while rising from Single-A to Double-A. He struck out 19 and walked just one over nine innings in his first two Triple-A starts this season.

Scott pounds the zone with quality stuff: a mid-90s four-seamer that elicits an exceptional amount of swings-and-misses, as well as chases for a fastball; an upper-80s splitter/changeup that neutralizes left-handers; and a tight mid-80s slider that shows flashes of becoming a solid third option. He flies under the radar more than he should because he's 24 and doesn't have a long track record as a starter, but he looks on the cusp of pitching in the front half of a big league rotation.

Given Lance's affinity for breaking down pitchers, I had to ask for his answer to his own question. He went with left-hander Justin Wrobleski, who had Tommy John surgery two months before the Dodgers selected him in 2021's 11th round out of Oklahoma State. He logged a 2.90 ERA with a 109/35 K/BB ratio in High-A last year -- his first extended stint in pro ball -- and has given up just two earned runs in his first two Double-A starts in 2024.

Lance's comments:

Wrobleski is odd because the extension is super low, 1st-percentile low. That could be concerning, but I like outliers in either direction.

I think there are five average or near-average pitches there per Stuff+, average or better velocity on every shape, all of which he was striking around 60 percent last year and multiple weapons for each handedness. His archetype might be where the league moves eventually: average velo with multiple pitches and strikes instead of two plus-plus pitches with minimal strike feel and lots of projection needed.