Think about how different things felt for the Pirates this time a year ago.
They ranked last in runs scored, homers and OPS throughout Major League Baseball — by a wide margin. Spencer Horwitz was their leader among position players in FanGraphs’ wins above replacement at just 1.7 fWAR. He also had their only above-average season when it came to OPS+ (116).
While it’s fair to say the starting rotation did not meet expectations in 2026, the strides made by position players were sizable and important.
“I’m excited to know I’ll be back with this same group next year,” Ryan O’Hearn said. “We have a chance to do something special.”
Before we get into the meat of our breakdown, O’Hearn’s reason for optimism is not misguided. Much has changed.
Last year, Jared Triolo and Oneil Cruz were tied for second in fWAR at 1.5. Joey Bart (1.0) ranked third.
Cruz was much better in 2026 and has a completely different group of hitters around him.
The result was the Pirates producing the largest year-over-year improvement in MLB when it came to runs scored, jumping from 583 to 767 for a 184-run swing. They set the franchise home run record and more than tripled their previous year’s fWAR total achieved by position players (5.8 to 18.2).
If the Pirates can stay healthy, the bullpen pitches the way it did after the All-Star break and the rotation regain its 2025 form, that should do the trick.
Five storylines
1. The slam dunk is obviously Brandon Lowe, his 35 homers, 96 RBIs, .824 OPS and all that fun stuff. No disagreements here. But we probably didn’t talk enough about what Lowe did defensively.
He was worth -14 defensive runs saved (FanGraphs) last season and came to Pittsburgh sounding like a liability in the field. Yeah, no. He was worth +13 DRS in 2026, tied with JJ Wetherholt (Mars) for third-best among MLB second baseman.
Would be tough to compare every player’s DRS year over year. But it’s hard to imagine many experiencing more than a 27-point swing.
“He’s a heck of a second baseman,” Bubba Chandler said in Sept. 13 in Chicago. “He doesn’t really get the credit he deserves.”
2. Oneil Cruz showed me a lot this season, and I’m willing to bet you feel the same way. He still made mistakes, sure. Some of them were head-scratchers. But there was also a lot of good in there. Among a few examples:
• His improvement against left-handed pitching: .102 average and .400 OPS to .326 and .847, respectively.
• Grinding through injuries late in the season.
• How the Pirates fared with/without Cruz. They were 54-43 when he played and 28-37 when he did not. Put another way, the Pirates were essentially a 90-win team with Cruz.
“He brings an element to the game, when he’s locked in … he just does some things that others can’t do,” Pirates general manager Ben Cherington said.
Cruz finished with 20 homers, 30 steals and 67 RBIs over those 97 games, which works out to 31 homers, 104 RBIs and 46 steals over 150 games. Need to keep him healthy in 2027.
3. We didn’t see enough of it because of injuries, but I liked the Pirates’ ability to put pressure on defenses with their legs. Cruz, Konnor Griffin and Jake Mangum gave the Pirates three players with 20 or more steals for the first time since 1999.
(Those three, because it’s fun trivia: Jason Kendall, Kevin Young and Al Martin.)
Given their personnel, the Pirates should be among the league leaders in stolen bases in 2027. They finished eighth with 132 in 2026.
4. Konnor Griffin had a fine rookie season: 80 games, .272 average, .728 OPS, 15 doubles, four triples, six homers, 33 RBIs and 43 runs scored. But it should be a warmup act compared to how Griffin fares in 2027.
It was impressive, don’t get me wrong. His speed, defense and electricity as a player were obvious. But I think with good health and the ability to get into a rhythm, there’s so much more there.
5. The Marcell Ozuna signing was ugly, no way around that. But it was at least somewhat offset by Nick Gonzales (.303) becoming the first Pirate to hit .300 or better in five years, eight total with double-digit homers (most since 2019) and Lowe having the second-best season for a Pirate in the past decade.
(The only one better, per fWAR, was Bryan Reynolds’ 6.3 in 2021. Lowe finished at 4.9)
Four numbers
40: MLB-high number of doubles for Reynolds, the most for a Pirate since Nate McLouth had 46 in 2008.
.2: fWAR achieved by Pirates first basemen, which was oddly the lowest of any position aside from designated hitter.
94.1: Average exit velocity for Cruz, in mph. That ranked fourth in 2026.
22: Of Lowe’s 35 homers, 22 were no-doubters, as classified by Baseball Savant. That means they would’ve been out of all 30 parks. Only three MLB hitters had more.
Three questions
1. Which is the real version of Esmerlyn Valdez? He was the NL Rookie of the Month for July, and it was a slam-dunk choice after he hit eight home runs and had 25 RBIs (to go along with 14 extra-base hits) in the month.
But the rest of his season was largely a struggle. In 47 non-July games, Valdez hit just .121 with a 40% strikeout rate.
2. What happens with Spencer Horwitz? Before he missed time with a left hamstring strain and concussion, Horwitz was batting .280 with an .842 OPS in 74 games. After he returned, Horwitz hit just .180 with a .464 OPS in 40 games.
Horwitz didn’t suddenly become a bad hitter, but it’ll be interesting to see how this unfolds in 2027. The Pirates need to limit Ryan O’Hearn’s time in right field. He’s also a better defensive first baseman, which could cause a logjam if the Pirates want to rotate the DH spot between Reynolds, Cruz, O’Hearn and potentially Lowe.
3. Who’s on … third? OK, obviously the biggest question here is whether the Pirates re-sign Lowe. Feel like we’re beating a dead horse at this point. But inside of that, if Lowe does return, it would be tough to run it back with Gonzales at third given how much he struggled defensively. If Lowe leaves, then it’s probably a spot to addd back power.
Two predictions
1. Sadly, Lowe signs elsewhere. Would love, love, love to be wrong. But Lowe had a stellar season at a position where power can be at a premium. There’ll be a team — probably multiple — willing to tack on a fourth year and pay a lot for Lowe’s services. So much so that it might not make sense for the Pirates. And once more, with emphasis: Let’s hope this is way off.
2. Valdez rediscovers his July form. I know, answering my own question. But it’s a big one. His explosion didn’t have a flash-in-the-pan feel. There’s a lot below the surface: hard work, learning and pushing to get better.
“Even when he was going through it a little bit,” he still took his walks,” hitting coach Matt Hague said. “The league typically adjusts to guys about 8-10 times a year. He always responded.”
One quote
“I’m hungry for more. I know I have a lot more I can show and bring to this team, and I'm pumped to keep exploring and figuring out what type of player I'm going to be." — Griffin
Jason Mackey: Jason.Mackey@pirates.com and @JMackey_PGH on X.