Which Bucs are riding momentum into '24 season? Who needs a fresh start?

January 14th, 2024

This story was excerpted from the Pirates Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

Spring camp opens in a month! Can you feel the warm Florida air?

Well, not if you’re in Pittsburgh, where we’re seeing highs in the 20s nearly all week. But regardless, the new season is already on the horizon.

With that in mind, let’s revisit how last season ended and see which Pirates are carrying momentum and which could use a fresh start after tough finishes to 2023.

CARRYING MOMENTUM

Hitter:

I could have easily put Ke’Bryan Hayes here, but how Triolo progressed offensively to produce a September to remember was amazing to witness.

Triolo didn’t light the world on fire immediately after his debut on June 28. He hit .258 with two doubles in his first 25 games, which is solid for a rookie in his first month. Then he found another gear, going 10-for-32 with a homer in the next 11 games, but he was optioned to Triple-A when Ji Hwan Bae was activated from the injured list.

Triolo took it in stride and bided his time, then scorched the league when he returned. The 25-year-old hit .350/.458/.567 with seven doubles and two homers in his final 18 games of the season after he was recalled on Sept. 6. This is a guy who carries four gloves with him because of his defensive versatility. Add a consistent bat to that profile and you’ve got an extremely valuable player for years to come.

Starting pitcher:

I’ll admit: The choices here were a little bit thin, but remember that the Pirates ended the year with only two full-time starting pitchers. One of them, Johan Oviedo, would have been a great candidate, but since he will be out for the 2024 season due to Tommy John surgery, his inclusion would defeat the purpose of this exercise.

Even though Priester’s September numbers weren’t good (14 ER in 21 1/3 innings over four starts), they were definitely good steps. He was averaging more than one run allowed per inning over his first six career starts (29 ER in 28 2/3 innings), warranting a return trip to Triple-A on Aug. 15. One month later, he was back in the Majors and limiting opponents to a .259 batting average and a 1.41 WHIP in September -- much better numbers than in the shaky start.

Relief pitcher:

Three things happened for Mlodzinski in 2023: He came, he saw, he conquered. OK, maybe a bit hyperbolic, but consider that Mlodzinski went from a starter to a reliever late in ‘22 at Double-A. He made 24 Minor League relief appearances before his June callup, and his first stint cemented him as a leverage option in ‘24.

Mlodzinski allowed more than one earned run in one outing last season, and it was his fourth career appearance. He was steady after that, especially in September, when he had a 2.19 ERA in 14 games -- and by that point he had earned some of the biggest spots with the game on the line.

READY FOR A FRESH START

Williams, who was acquired from the Rays for reliever Robert Stephenson in June, showed improvements at the Triple-A level after the trade, hitting .305 with a .915 OPS 128 at-bats for Indianapolis to earn his first promotion to the Majors. He hit .222 with a .600 OPS in his first 29 games, which isn’t far from what contact-over-power hitters experience in their first taste of MLB. But then things slid.

In his final 17 games of the season, Williams collected only four hits -- all singles -- from Aug. 28 onward. He’ll be in the mix for the second-base opening this spring, and he might have the most to prove of that group.

Starting pitcher:

Keller undeniably had one of the best seasons by a Pirate in 2023, but many of the best results came in the first half. His second half was more than two ERA points worse than the first. He produced a decent run of results in August, but September was a rollercoaster of results.

In the final month, Keller had two starts in which he allowed seven runs or more, but sandwiched between those two results was an eight-inning, two-hit effort to spearhead a shutout of the Nationals. Am I worried about Keller bouncing back in 2024 from last September? Not really. But it’s at least worth noting heading into Spring Training.

Relief pitcher:

Hernandez made it a full season in MLB after being selected in the Rule 5 Draft by the Pirates, which is reason enough to celebrate. Many times, Rule 5 selections can’t clear that threshold. And he did extremely well for a rookie reliever in the first half, with a 2.63 ERA and .220 batting average against in 26 appearances. 

However, things turned in the second half. Hernandez had a 7.71 ERA in 24 games, and he gave up seven runs over the final five innings he pitched in a six-appearance stretch. He spent time on the injured list with a strained right calf, and it’s hard to say how much that injury or the corresponding time off affected his performance. But if he could regain his first-half form in 2024, the Pirates could use his left-handed look in the bullpen.