Predicting 25-man roster with battles ongoing

March 14th, 2018

PEORIA, Ariz. -- The roster battles in Padres camp have taken a decidedly different tone this spring than they have in years past.
There are no Rule 5 Draft selections to work around. There are few out-of-options veterans who might present logistical challenges. Instead, there's a host of young talent in camp, and those youngsters have been given every opportunity to compete for a job.
"This time you're looking at the bottom part of the roster, and you're talking about baseball players that have earned their way to the big leagues, have hit at Triple-A," Padres manager Andy Green said. "Those are problems championship organizations have, and you're starting to see that in a few areas."
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With one week until Green and Co. must settle on an Opening Day roster, here's an early projection of what that 25-man squad might look like.
Catcher (2):, A.J. Ellis
Raffy Lopez is doing everything he can to supplant Ellis from the No. 2 job behind Hedges. Lopez's lefty bat would also serve as a nice complement to Hedges, specifically against tricky right-handed pitchers.
But Ellis has one thing Lopez does not: years of big league experience. That could prove decisive in a tight backup-catcher race. Ellis brings a wealth of knowledge, which could help nurture both Hedges and a young pitching staff.
First base (1):
entered camp as the Padres' first baseman, but he was more than happy to concede his place to Hosmer, who inked an eight-year, $144 million deal last month. Myers has since moved to right field, and it's unlikely he returns to first base, even in a backup capacity.

The Padres almost certainly won't carry a backup who can play first base exclusively. Instead, third basemen and would spell Hosmer as necessary.
Second base (1):
The stakes are especially high in the second-base race, where the winner will play regularly and the loser probably won't have a place on the Opening Day roster. There might not be a tighter race in baseball than the one between Asuaje and .
Their skill sets differ slightly, with Asuaje better defensively and OBP-wise, while Spangenberg holds the edge in speed and slugging. But there probably isn't much room for two left-handed-hitting second basemen, especially with likely to see time there as a backup. Asuaje gets the ever-so-slight edge because of his ever-so-slightly better numbers this spring.

Third base (2): Headley, Villanueva
Villanueva started Spring Training on an absolute tear, mashing three homers in a four-game span. His early success led some to call for Villanueva to earn the starting job on Opening Day.
That's not going to happen. Headley is precisely the type of patient on-base threat the Padres have lacked over the past two seasons. Still, Villanueva's hot start secured him a spot on the roster. He'll serve as a powerful bench bat, starting sporadically against left-handers.
Shortstop (1):
Galvis was assured the everyday job at short when the Padres acquired him in a December trade with Philadelphia. Apparently "every day" means "every day."
Galvis played 162 games for the Phillies last season, and that durability means the Padres might not carry a traditional backup. That's bad news for Dusty Coleman. Villanueva could be used in an emergency capacity.

Outfield (5): Myers, Pirela, , ,
No positional race has drawn more attention in Padres camp than the outfield battle, which was given an entirely new complexion by Myers' move to right field. He's a lock, so is Margot in center, and Pirela is pretty darn close.
It's likeliest the Padres carry five outfielders, and that leaves four players fighting for two spots -- Renfroe, Cordero, and . Carrying both Cordero and Jankowski might be redundant, given their similar skill sets. Cordero's upside gives him a slight advantage, though he is nursing groin tightness. Meanwhile, Renfroe's power bat seems too potent to leave out.
Rotation (5):, , , ,
Entering camp, this seemed like an eight-man race for three spots. It's developed into something of a five-man race for two. Richard and Mitchell were always in, and Lamet joined them. , meanwhile, would need further time in the Minors if he were to stretch back into a starter. Right-hander is also out of the mix with a right lat strain.
So it's Perdomo, Ross, , and Robbie Erlin. Perdomo impressed in his most recent start, and he has a small edge given his past two seasons and his potential role in the club's future. After that, it's down to four, and Ross' upside might win out.

Bullpen (8):Brad Hand, , , , , Buddy Baumann, Young, Lyles
Hand, Yates, Stammen and Makita are destined to pitch the highest leverage innings early in the season. The Padres are also going to carry at least one long man, and possibly two as a means of keeping Young and Lyles on board.
That would leave two spots open, and one probably goes to a left-hander. Baumann and are locked into a tight race there. Half a dozen options will vie for that final spot, but Brewer signed a big league deal during the offseason and has looked sharp early this spring.