Predictions for the Padres' rotation

May 21st, 2022

This story was excerpted from AJ Cassavell's Padres Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

So ... now what? We spent the first month and a half of the season touting the Padres' rotation depth. We also spent the first month and a half of the season wondering what the Padres would do if they had all seven of their starting pitchers healthy and available.

Well, here we are.  returned to the rotation on Wednesday, after  had returned earlier this month. , meanwhile, is pitching too well to be sent to Triple-A.

So the Padres have seven bona fide starting pitchers on their roster. And, clearly, they intend to use those starters. In Philadelphia this week, San Diego employed a pair of piggyback days, pitching two starters of different handedness one after the other. On Tuesday, it was the righty Clevinger followed by the lefty Gore. On Wednesday, it was the lefty Snell followed by the righty Nick Martinez.

But what happens next? Here are a few predictions for where the starting rotation goes from here:

1. All seven pitchers will make starts in the next month. The schedule is about to get busy. The Padres play 36 games in the next 37 days, including a doubleheader at Petco Park on June 11. This level of rotation depth will come in quite handy during that span. It’s possible the team reverts to a six-man rotation for a portion of that stretch. It's also worth remembering that attrition hits every rotation at some point. If -- or more likely "when" -- a Padres starter misses a turn due to injury or inconsistency, both Martinez and Gore might find themselves back in the rotation.

2. Gore will move between the rotation and bullpen all season. He is, after all, a 23-year-old rookie who hasn't pitched much over the past two seasons. Gore will be on some form of innings restriction this season. But his stuff is so electric that the Padres will clearly want him healthy and thriving down the stretch. The best way to do that is to limit his innings during the course of the season. And the best way to do that might be to give Gore 2-3-inning bullpen stints somewhat regularly, piggybacked on top of another starter.

3. Blake Snell will be fine -- probably really good, in fact. Let's not draw too many conclusions from his first start of the season. Sure, Snell can be maddening to watch at times, nibbling around the edges of the strike zone, despite his elite stuff. (That's what he did in Wednesday’s loss, walking three and needing 84 pitches to get through 3 2/3 innings.) But Snell's pitch mix remains electric, and he worked out those kinks last season to the tune of a 1.83 ERA in August and September. I'd expect new pitching coach Ruben Niebla to help Snell­ find that form sooner rather than later.

4. The Padres bullpen will be one of the freshest units in the league in the second half. That would be, of course, in stark contrast to last season, when San Diego boasted one of the league's best relief corps for four months -- only to see it implode down the stretch after being overworked. If this rotation continues to chew up innings the way it has so far this season, the Padres' bullpen should be freshest when it matters most.