This story was excerpted from Aiden Stepansky's Pirates Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
PITTSBURGH -- The Pirates posted a 12-15 record in August, ending the final summer month 67-71 on the 2026 campaign. It’s go time for Pittsburgh if it wants to break the longest postseason drought in the National League.
Entering Sept. 1, the Pirates have a 1.6% chance to make the playoffs, per FanGraphs. The same outlet gave Pittsburgh a 40.1% probability of landing in the postseason field at the All-Star break, when it was three games over .500.
Even with the Pirates' declining chances, plenty of storylines remain to track through September. Here are five I’ll be watching, and you should too.
How does Skenes finish?
Before talking down on Paul Skenes, let’s take a step back to see how remarkable his first two MLB seasons were. The run to begin his career is most comparable to Hall of Famer Tom Seaver, who posted a 2.47 ERA with 375 strikeouts and a 129 ERA+. Skenes, despite throwing over 200 fewer innings, was better than Seaver, twirling a 1.96 ERA with 386 strikeouts and a 220 ERA+.
Skenes has fallen off to a 3.79 ERA and 115 ERA+ in 2026. But it’s hard for any pitcher to live up to the standard he set to kick off his career. He showed encouraging signs last week in San Diego with six scoreless innings and increased velocity. Is a return to form coming in September?
Does Griffin's return revitalize a declining offense?
While I’m not one to make excuses for injury woes plaguing a team, I believe we sometimes forget just how good Konnor Griffin is going to be, and how his absence has hurt the Pirates. Since his left ring finger injury on July 5, Pittsburgh’s shortstops, Jared Triolo and trade acquisition Jacob Gonzalez, have combined to bat .220 with a .597 OPS, while Pittsburgh's combined OPS mark among shortstops ranks 10th-worst in the sport.
Griffin likely won’t save the season. But his five-tool prowess made him the game’s top prospect for a reason, and just take a look at the corner he was turning in the eight games between injured list stints: Griffin batted .306 with six stolen bases and a 115 WRC+. The simple aura of Griffin finishing out his rookie season strong after some adversity is intriguing in itself.
Does Lowe reach 100 RBIs in a season?
Among all second basemen in the Majors since 2020, Brandon Lowe ranks first with 162 homers. Yet Lowe has never collected 100 RBIs in a season, topping out at 99 in 2021 as he finished 10th in American League MVP voting.
Lowe enters the final month of the season with 82 RBIs, needing a strong September to reach triple digits for the first time. It’s certainly possible, as Lowe posted 20 RBIs in June, though he’s combined for 25 RBIs over the last two months. Maybe some extra motivation ahead of free agency can help Lowe beat his previous mark.
How does the Mlodzinski saga end?
It’s fair to say this has not turned out how Carmen Mlodzinski or the Pirates wanted. Both sides have been placed in a tough spot, with Mlodzinski starting in the rotation, moving back to the bullpen and then returning to the rotation right as he was finding a groove in relief. Now, after a few faulty starts, Mlodzinski is being used in bulk on bullpen days in relief when Lake Bachar opens.
Mlodzinski has proven to be a reliable reliever, but a below-average starter. His 5.85 starter ERA is a far cry from his 2.38 ERA out of the bullpen. With Mlodzinski likely finishing his season in this bulk-relief role, more success should lead to a definitive move to the bullpen going forward … or an offseason move elsewhere. Saturday’s outing in St. Louis was as close to a solution as possible, and another showing of an improved bullpen.
Is there a postseason miracle ahead?
This is the question that will define the Pirates' 2026 season. Pittsburgh will need a 14-10 record over its last 24 games to finish .500. To reach 86 wins, a possible target for the final NL Wild Card spot, Pittsburgh would need to go 19-5. The Pirates ended the day Monday six games back of the final spot, with four teams ahead of them.
The chances are slim when you look at it like that. But the Pirates showed encouraging signs in San Diego and St. Louis. Skenes looked to have bounced back. The bullpen is one of the best in baseball since the Trade Deadline. And Griffin brings plenty of impact all over the field. It could all come together at the right time, and still be too little, too late.