Home Run Derby participants ... ranked

July 10th, 2021

The field for the T-Mobile Home Run Derby, the one we've all been waiting for since we learned this All-Star Game would be played at Coors Field, is at last set. While not every name we'd love to see in the Derby is here -- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. opted out, and to be honest, I think Giancarlo Stanton should be in this every year -- this is still a terrific, must-see field.

Every competitor has a real chance to win this thing Monday night; otherwise, they wouldn't be here. But because I am a professional prognosticator, or at least someone who types many words very fast about baseball hopefully for your amusement and enlightenment, I must make some predictions. So here are your 2021 Home Run Derby Power Rankings. Any of these guys could win. Here's a semi-educated guess at who might when the event begins at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN.

1) , DH/RHP, Angels
Who's going to pick against him right now? He's got a legitimate chance to become the first player to go over 60 homers in 20 years and he's basically the most exciting thing to happen in baseball in a long, long time. Also: He might pitch the very next night! (He probably will!) No one knows how long this will last, how long Ohtani will stay healthy, how long he'll be able to pull off this absolutely unprecedented achievement. But there's no reason not to stay on this ride as long as we all can. How can you not pick Ohtani first? I think I'd pick him to win a free throw shooting contest right now.

2) , 1B, Mets
First off, he's the defending champion, and he came about it quite honestly. He might not have hit as many total homers as Guerrero did in 2019, but in the final round, when it counted, he beat Guerrero 23-22. (He'd previously beaten Ronald Acuña Jr. and Carlos Santana, slouches neither.) Alonso hasn't quite been the home run monster since that 2019 season, but he's still got all sorts of country power. Discount him at your peril. He would become only the third player to win the Derby twice, after Yoenis Céspedes and Ken Griffey Jr., who won three times, including the last time it was in Denver.

3) , OF, Rangers
How has Gallo never been in a Home Run Derby before? The ultimate boom-or-bust hitter, Gallo got off to a slow start this year, after a difficult 2019, before absolutely erupting of late, earning himself an All-Star Game spot and entry into this Derby. He has as much raw power as anyone in this competition and, all told, may be the perfect upset pick if you want to pick someone other than the biggest names. Plus, it's possible he's on the trade block, which means all those moonshots, soon, could be happening for your team.

4) , 1B, A's
Long overshadowed by the Matt on the other side of the infield, Olson has established himself as the A's true hitting star over the last couple of seasons. His 21 homers so far have him well on his way to a career high, but he's doing it everywhere this year, with a batting average that's nearly 100 points higher than last year's. And his sweet, looping swing seems perfect for Coors. A dark horse pick, but maybe not a bad one.

5) , OF, Nationals
Sort of a surprise entrant into the Derby, Soto is fourth on his own team in homers and is having, statistically, the worst year of his career. (He's still really, really good.) Perhaps that's why Soto accepted the invitation for the first time this year: It's a way to show off what he can do during a season when he has been perceived, fairly or unfairly, as a bit of a disappointment. The Home Run Derby can't possibly showcase what truly makes Soto such an incredible, unique player, but it could be a way to remind people of the physical skills he brings along with his excellent approach. Many wondered if Soto, heading into the year, was the next Ted Williams. Soto hasn't been that this year, but that doesn't mean he isn't still dead center at the future of this league.

6) , SS, Rockies
You've always got to have the hometown kid, even if this particular hometown kid isn't even leading his team in home runs. (That would be Ryan McMahon.) Heck, there's a real possibility that these are the last days we'll see him in a Rockies uniform at all. Perhaps he has one big final goodbye to the Coors fans in the cards, but this is a complicated situation that would almost feel too strange for him to win. But there are worse ways to showcase your power to suitors, that's for sure.

7) , OF, Orioles
The undeniable feel-good story of this Home Run Derby, Mancini has come back from his cancer treatments to have a terrific season for an Orioles team that might have a fanbase that loves him too much to trade him, even if maybe they should. Mancini is a solid power hitter, but never an elite one, and while you can expect the crowd to lift him for a round or two, he might not quite have the stick to hang with the big boys of this competition. But if he makes it to the finals, there won't be a soul not cheering for him … no matter who he's facing.

8) , C, Royals
First off, it's just fantastic to have a catcher in this competition. We haven't had one since Gary Sánchez in 2017 (and before him none since Joe Mauer in '09). Perez has turned into quite a power source in addition to his leadership and defensive skills, a turn for the better that first showed itself late in the '20 season, after missing all of the '19 season. It'll be a blast to see him give it a go in the name of catchers everywhere. That said, no catcher has ever won this, and it's tough to see Perez outlasting some of the other names on this list.