It was only five weeks ago that I made my division predictions for the 2026 season. Five weeks ago! Look at those predictions, or better yet, don’t: They already look so wrong! Sure, the season is long, but those predictions, made not so long ago, look like they were beamed in from an entirely different universe altogether. Are we sure that was even in this current timeline?
I do want to give myself the benefit of the doubt here. Sure, the predictions don’t look great, but then again, it has been a pretty wild season so far. Almost every division has been topsy-turvy with, save for a few exceptions, the teams that were expected to rule the proverbial roost struggling and supposed basement dwellers rising out of nowhere.
How chaotic have these divisional races been so far? Here’s a look at the Chaos Factor Rankings for each division to this point. And the best part: There’s so much more chaos left to come.
1. NL East
Chaos Factor: 9/10
Remember when the Braves started the 2025 season 0-7? That was a hole they kept trying to dig themselves out of but were never quite able to; the season felt over before it really got started. That is … the opposite of what is happening for the Braves this season. Their 25-10 start, through Sunday, is the best for the franchise after 35 games in the Modern Era (since 1900).
Even better, the Braves’ hot start has run parallel to equally historic struggles for their two biggest rivals, the Phillies and Mets. The result? The Braves enter Wednesday leading the division by 9 1/2 games -- a gap that is 6 1/2 games bigger than in any other division. The Braves aren’t just the best team in baseball so far; they’re the only team in this division with a winning record. Who saw that coming?
Meanwhile, the Phillies and the Mets, two teams that were built to win the World Series this year, have been fighting each other to stay out of last place. Is it possible this race is already over?
2. AL West
Chaos Factor: 8/10
The Mariners were the consensus pick to win not just the AL West but, in fact, the entire American League. (I picked them as well.) But they are off to a disappointing start, not least of which because Cal Raleigh, last year’s AL MVP runner-up, hasn’t really gotten going and is currently nursing an injury.
The void atop the division has been filled by, of all teams, the A’s, who are getting another MVP-caliber season from Nick Kurtz and have one of the most exciting young offenses in the game. While the Rangers and Angels are roughly what we thought they would be, and the Mariners still look like a team that is going to figure things out, the biggest story here may be the collapse of the Astros. A team that once was defined by its pitching has by far the highest ERA in the Majors this season and is barely ahead of a 100-loss pace.
There’s a void atop this division in the shape of a trident and a lone star. Right now the A’s are the only team that looks up to filling it.
3. NL Central
Chaos Factor: 7/10
The Cubs are atop this division, which most people predicted. That’s the only reason this division isn’t in one of the top two spots on this list.
But the notion that all five teams in the NL Central -- the NL Central! Of all divisions! -- would be above .500 a week into May would have been thought of as absurd. All five teams over .500? How is that even possible? The Brewers are the three-time defending division champions, so it’s not that shocking that they’d be a winning team, and the Reds were in the playoffs last year, even if hardly anyone remembers seeing them there thanks to a two-game NL Wild Card Series sweep.
But the Pirates, a team that hasn’t had a winning record since 2018 and hasn’t won a playoff series since 1979? Or even more surprising, the Cardinals, a team that was explicitly entering a rebuild, one that traded away just about every recognizable name it had? Some of these teams will fall off as the season goes along -- Right? Right? -- but as of now, the usually nondescript NL Central simply will not stop winning.
4. AL East
Chaos Factor: 5.5/10
The Yankees are where we all thought they would be, though right now they look stronger than they have looked in years. When Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón return from their rehab assignments, look out.
But everything else in the division has been unexpected. The Rays have been the pleasant surprise, celebrating their return to The Trop with the second-best record in the division and fourth best in MLB (23-12 entering Wednesday).
Everyone else has been an unpleasant surprise. The Blue Jays don’t seem to have quite shaken off that World Series hangover yet, the Orioles have been ransacked by injuries and, worst of all, the Red Sox have dismissed their once-beloved manager and have the vibe of a franchise in a state of disorder. Still: No division with the Yankees atop it can be that chaotic.
5. AL Central
Chaos Factor: 5/10
The AL Central has the same general shape it usually does: Most of the teams are bunched together (a spread of just 1 1/2 games entering Wednesday), with no one really pulling away. But the two teams everyone thought were primed to take a step forward this year, the Tigers and the Royals, are having serious issues. The loss of Tarik Skubal for the next few months makes the Tigers’ slow start even scarier, and the Royals, until a recent uptick, had received nearly nothing from their supposedly upgraded offense.
Meanwhile, the White Sox are closing in on .500 after recovering from a 7-14 start. The Guardians -- sort of like they did last year -- seem to be the steady horse benefiting from everyone else’s woes: They just keep plugging along as everyone else loses their heads.
6. NL West
Chaos Factor: 2/10
The Padres have been a little better than many thought they’d be, and the Giants a little worse, but on the whole, this is the NL West as you have come to know it. The Dodgers are in first, after all. Some things you can always count on.