ST. PETERSBURG -- After two disappointing years, the Rays are back in the postseason.
The Rays became the first team in the American League to clinch a playoff spot on Friday, when they beat the Astros in their series opener at Tropicana Field. It was the earliest Tampa Bay has ever secured a spot in the postseason.
The outcome felt inevitable for some time, as the Rays have spent most of this season as the AL’s best team. And it is not the end of the road, because they still have their sights set on winning the AL East for the first time since 2021 and the fifth time in franchise history.
But they accomplished their first goal. What’s next? Here are a few things to consider.
What could the postseason roster look like?
This is purely a projection based on what we know right now and, just as importantly, who is healthy right now. Note: We’re not including injured players, but we will update this projection in real time as players come off the injured list.
Obviously, a lot can and will change as the Rays get healthier and get closer to their first postseason series. Plus, keep in mind that teams can reset their rosters after each round.
C: Liam Hicks, Nick Fortes, Kenny Piper
1B: Jonathan Aranda
2B: Richie Palacios, Nick Madrigal
SS: Jorge Mateo
3B: Junior Caminero
OF: Chandler Simpson, Cedric Mullins, Jonny DeLuca, Ryan Vilade, Victor Mesa Jr.
DH: Yandy Díaz
SP: Drew Rasmussen, Nick Martinez, Freddy Peralta, Ian Seymour
RP: Bryan Baker, Tyler Wells, Kevin Kelly, Cam Booser, Casey Legumina, Steven Matz, Ty Johnson, Griffin Jax
What could change with that roster projection?
How much time do you have?
For starters, what’s listed above does not include the injured group of shortstop Taylor Walls, infielder Ben Williamson, outfielder Jake Fraley, starter Shane McClanahan and relievers Garrett Cleavinger and Manuel Rodríguez. They are all key players who could be ready for the playoffs, and that would obviously have a significant impact on the roster.
If Walls is ready, they likely wouldn’t need to carry Madrigal. If Williamson is healthy, they could either keep Mateo as a pinch-running option (perhaps at the expense of “catching closer” Piper) or use Williamson instead of Mateo. Fraley’s potential availability is uncertain, but he would be another left-handed bat to consider.
The above roster is also built with the assumption that the Rays will carry 14 position players and only 12 pitchers. That is typically the split teams gravitate toward in a short postseason series.
The pitching situation is even more complicated this far out from the postseason. The Rays will only need three starters to get through a best-of-three Wild Card Series or the best-of-five AL Division Series, due to the number of days off in that round this year. They already have five to choose from in Rasmussen, Martinez, Peralta, Jax and Seymour, and McClanahan seems likely to return before the end of the regular season.
So it’s hard to say how they will set their rotation and what they would do with the remaining starters. Seymour and Jax have pitched out of the bullpen, and it makes sense to keep someone capable of pitching like a starter in case there’s an early injury or an extra-inning game. But maybe it’s not the most efficient decision to carry both, since they’ve been working as starters for most of the season and aren’t conditioned for daily bullpen outings.
Then you must consider Rodríguez and Cleavinger, along with pitchers like right-hander Cole Sulser who aren’t listed above, and how their health could affect the composition of the bullpen. Will Johnson pitch his way into the mix regardless?
What is the postseason schedule?
This one is much easier to answer! Click here for MLB’s full postseason schedule.
Two key dates to consider, though: The AL Wild Card Series begins on Tuesday, Sept. 29, and the ALDS begins on Saturday, Oct. 3.
Will they get a first-round bye?
That depends on whether they win the AL East. If they do, it is highly likely that they will secure the No. 1 seed in the AL, bypass the Wild Card Series round and advance straight to the ALDS.
Will they have homefield advantage?
That also depends on whether they win the AL East and claim the top spot in the league. If they do, yes, they will have homefield advantage in the ALDS and AL Championship Series.
Failing that, it’s worth noting that the top Wild Card club gets homefield advantage in the first series.
Who will they face?
Stay tuned. If the season ended today, the Rays’ ALDS opponent would be the winner of a Wild Card Series between the Yankees and Red Sox.
How could they line up their rotation for the first series?
If they win the division and get a first-round bye, they’ll have basically a week to set up their rotation however they want for the ALDS. The beauty of that round this year is that they would need only three starters, because the first two could pitch on regular rest in Games 4 and 5.
It’s hard to imagine a scenario where Rasmussen isn’t pitching one of the first games of the series, given how dominant he has been all season. After that, the Rays have plenty of options in Martinez, Peralta and McClanahan (assuming he’s healthy), not to mention Jax (who’s been excellent as a starter) and Seymour.
Martinez has given the Rays a chance to win nearly every time he’s taken the mound this season, while Peralta has been excellent in his last few starts and has a track record as a top-of-the-rotation starter. McClanahan was the Rays’ Game 1 starter in the postseason when healthy in 2021 and ‘22.
What is the Rays’ recent postseason history?
This is the Rays' 10th trip to the postseason since their renaissance in 2008 but their first time in the playoffs since '23. The Rays haven’t won a postseason series since '20, when they won three before losing to the Dodgers in the World Series.
The Rays were swept out of the Wild Card Series by the Rangers in 2023 and by the Guardians in '22. They lost to the Red Sox, 3-1, in the '21 ALDS. They won the '19 AL Wild Card Game but lost a five-game ALDS against the Astros in their first trip to the postseason since going four times in six years from 2008-13.