Rays already in playoff mode for the stretch run

September 1st, 2023

This story was excerpted from Adam Berry’s Rays Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

CLEVELAND -- The way Harold Ramírez sees it, the playoffs have already begun.

Sure, the Rays still have one month and 28 games standing between them and actual postseason baseball. But that’s not what Ramírez was talking about earlier this week inside the visitors’ clubhouse in Miami.

“Because every game, it's like, we've got to win no matter what,” he said. “So, the playoffs have started.”

Welcome back, once again, to meaningful September baseball.

The Rays’ stretch run begins tonight, as they open a three-game series against the Guardians (and their pitching reinforcements) at Progressive Field. They are scheduled to play 17 games over the next 17 days, including 11 in a row against teams currently in first place: the Mariners (Sept. 7-10), Twins (Sept. 11-13) and Orioles (Sept. 14-17).

“I think the mentality has got to stay the same,” infielder Isaac Paredes said through interpreter Manny Navarro. “There might be more people in the stadiums during those times, but as long as we keep that same mentality, I think we'll be OK.”

Still, the next month won’t be easy for Tampa Bay as the club looks to nail down its fifth consecutive postseason appearance.

The Rays’ schedule includes only six games against teams with losing records: these three in Cleveland, then three at home against the Angels. Their remaining strength of schedule is the toughest in the American League. They’re all aware of what the AL East standings look like, so the four-game set in Baltimore may very well wind up being their biggest series of the season.

“I think the games are more meaningful, and I think we've got a couple that are really important series coming up here,” starter Tyler Glasnow said. “So I think the closer it gets down to the playoffs, it's always like [there’s] a little bit more on the line.”

But the Rays have put themselves in an enviable position, with the AL’s second-best record and a sizable lead over the rest of the the AL Wild Card contenders. Baseball-Reference calculates the Rays’ odds of making the playoffs at 99.9 percent, while FanGraphs gives them a 99.7 percent chance.

And after a 5-15 skid from July 1 to 26, they’ve returned to form by winning nine of their last 10 series and 20 of their last 29 games. That has also kept them within striking distance of the similarly hot Orioles, who have a 1 1/2-game lead in the AL East.

The Rays still have their eyes on a division title, understanding the benefits that come along with bypassing a three-game AL Wild Card Series and having home-field advantage throughout the postseason.

“I think we have a good chance, especially because I think we're getting the rhythm of what we had in the beginning of the year,” Paredes said. “We know we're going to be playing against Baltimore soon, and we want to keep that mentality against them and not give up.”

Can the Rays make up that ground? Will the division come down to their series in Baltimore in two weeks? Will their lineup be hotter and healthier heading into October than it was last year? Can their pitching staff continue to withstand all the losses they’ve already endured?

We’ll learn those answers, and more, over the next month.