CLEVELAND -- We’ve got a new series heading into Game 5 of the ALCS with the Rays and Guardians tied 2-2.
Sunday’s 5:08 p.m. ET game at Progressive Field will determine which side flies to St. Petersburg for Game 6 on the doorstep of the World Series and which team is fighting for their postseason lives. The Brewers get to kick their feet up and wait on the National League side, but over here in the American League, the stakes couldn’t be higher.
The Rays are riding a high coming off their 7-3 win in Game 4, but as we’ve seen just about every day in this series, momentum can turn on a dime. The Guardians still feel like they’re playing their best baseball, going back to their incredible comeback to beat the White Sox in the ALDS, and they have a shot to take a commanding series lead in front of their home crowd Sunday.
“We're great. We're right in it. We're even,” said Guardians manager Stephen Vogt. “Again, now, it's a three-game series. I'll put our guys up against any team in the world in a three-game series. Of course, we would have loved to have taken a 3-to-1 lead tonight, but it's not in the cards. We can't control that now. We just show up, ready to play a good Game 5, and have a happy flight to Tampa.”
Drew Rasmussen will get the start for the Rays, and he’ll face Parker Messick, a premier pitching matchup on the biggest stage. These teams are starting to get aggressive, too, with the Rays using Freddy Peralta out of the bullpen in Game 4 while still keeping him available for later in the series.
The biggest threat to the Guardians now is the Rays’ Big Three of Junior Caminero, Yandy Díaz and Jonathan Aranda, all of whom had big games in Game 4. Caminero’s was especially important, coming off four strikeouts in Game 3, and Aranda looks locked in. If that group can get back to Tropicana Field with a lead, look out.
“That was one of the main objectives that we had here coming into Cleveland, just to force the series back home,” Aranda said through interpreter Kevin Vera. “We're one of the best teams in the league when we're playing back on our home field, so we're going to use the fanbase and we're going to use that energy to push us forward. Drew is one of the best pitchers in the league, so it gives us a lot of confidence.”
After rain earlier this weekend, the forecast for Sunday is thankfully clear once again. It will still cool down as the evening stretches on, but the Guardians are used to these cold days, and the Rays, who play their home games under the dome at Tropicana Field, have already proven they can play in any environment.
When is the game and how can I watch it?
First pitch for Game 5 of the Rays-Guardians American League Championship Series is set for 5 p.m. ET on Sunday at Progressive Field. The game will be broadcast on TBS and HBO Max.
Spanish-language game broadcasts will be available on UniMas for the ALCS, and Spanish-language radio broadcasts will be available on Univision’s TUDN Radio.
Who are the starting pitchers?
Guardians: Parker Messick, LHP
Key stats: 5 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 3 K, 1 HBP in Game 2
Messick started Game 2 on Tuesday, which initially lined him up to take the ball in Game 6 on Monday. The postponement that moved Game 4 from Friday to Saturday also moved Game 5 to Sunday, which allowed Messick to start this game on normal rest. The rookie lefty will be making his fourth postseason start; he logged a 3.09 ERA with eight walks and 14 strikeouts in 11 2/3 innings over his first three outings.
In a season where Messick emerged as an anchor in Cleveland’s rotation, this is among his biggest starts.
“To be able to take the ball in this game shows the confidence the team has in me,” Messick said. “Hopefully I'm able to go out there and do the job because I know how important it is going into opposing territory with a lead, one game away from heading to the World Series. I’m looking forward to the opportunity, and hopefully I do my best out there.”
Rays: Drew Rasmussen, RHP
Key stats: 14 IP, 2 R, 2 BB, 17 K in two postseason starts
One benefit of the rainout? Rasmussen can start this game on five days’ rest, the way he made most of his starts during the regular season. The right-hander delivered a quality start in Tampa Bay’s Game 1 defeat, pitching into the seventh inning and ultimately allowing two runs while recording 18 outs. He was even better in Game 1 of the ALDS, when he struck out 10 while allowing just one hit over eight innings against the Yankees.
There’s nobody else the Rays would rather have on the mound with a chance to take the series lead before heading back home.
“It's still just baseball. I think that's led to a couple of successful outings up to this point,” Rasmussen said. “Just try and not make it anything bigger than what it actually is. It's you. It's preparation, and it's execution. Those are really the only things I'm concerned with.”
What are the starting lineups?
Guardians: Cleveland has kept a standard lineup this postseason and could trot out exactly what it did in Games 3 and 4. The only potential change could be behind the plate. Austin Hedges has caught all but one of Messick’s starts this season. Patrick Bailey hasn’t caught him once, though the Guardians discussed it before Messick’s start in Game 2 on Tuesday to get Bailey’s bat in the lineup. Could that be in store in a crucial Game 5?
1. Steven Kwan, LF
2. José Ramírez, 3B
3. Chase DeLauter, RF
4. Jo Adell, DH
5. Nathaniel Lowe, 1B
6. Travis Bazzana, 2B
7. Patrick Bailey, C
8. Petey Halpin, CF
9. Brayan Rocchio, SS
Rays: Tampa Bay didn’t go overboard with right-handed hitters when it faced Messick in Game 2, so let’s assume the Rays will roll out the same lineup that won that game.
1. Yandy Díaz, DH
2. Jonathan Aranda, 1B
3. Junior Caminero, 3B
4. Victor Mesa Jr., RF
5. Jonny DeLuca, CF
6. Chandler Simpson, LF
7. Ben Williamson, 2B
8. Liam Hicks, C
9. Taylor Walls, SS
How will the bullpens line up after the starter?
Rays: Tampa Bay used five relievers behind starter Nick Martinez in Game 4, including presumptive Game 6 starter Freddy Peralta, but lefty Ian Seymour was the only one who threw more than 16 pitches. So expect the Rays to have everyone available between Rasmussen and closer Bryan Baker, who has finished each of Tampa Bay’s five postseason wins. Lefty Cam Booser has been the top left-handed option, right-hander Kevin Kelly gets most of the toughest right-handed matchups and setup man Tyler Wells asserted himself well with his two-inning appearance in Game 3. It’s possible that Griffin Jax, who started Game 3, could be called upon if needed.
Guardians: Cleveland did not use closer Cade Smith and primary setup men Hunter Gaddis and Erik Sabrowski in the Game 4 loss. All three figure to factor into Game 5 as the Guardians look to take control of this series. In an ideal world, Messick will get Cleveland through five innings, if not six, and bridge the game to that trio.
Any injuries of note?
Rays: None.
Guardians: None.
Who is hot and who is not?
Rays: Simpson has been a spark plug of late, contributing a key single during the three-run rally in the fourth inning of Game 2 and then accounting for all of the team’s offense with his two-run triple in the fourth inning of Game 3. And the Big Three atop the order finally joined the party in Game 4, going 6-for-14 with five RBIs after a combined 5-for-34 start to the series. Maybe Hicks (3-for-20 in the postseason) and Mesa (4-for-25 with 11 strikeouts) will be the next ones to get going.
Guardians: Bazzana went 3-for-4 with a home run in Game 4. DeLauter’s first-inning RBI single in Game 4 was his 10th hit of the playoffs. That's one shy of tying Rocchio (11 in 2024) for the most hits by a Cleveland rookie in a single postseason. Rocchio went 1-for-3 on Saturday and is 4-for-28 through nine postseason games.
Anything else fans might want to know?
• Bazzana recorded his first career postseason home run with a solo shot in the 7th inning on Saturday, becoming the first Australian-born player to homer in MLB postseason history.
• Ramírez walked in the sixth inning to extend his postseason on-base streak to 16 games, which ties Steven Kwan (Oct. 8, 2022-Oct. 19, 2024) for the longest in Cleveland postseason history.
• Aranda had his first three-hit performance in the postseason in Game 4 and became the first Ray with three hits in a playoff game since Randy Arozarena in Game 4 of the 2020 World Series.
• Mesa recorded his second outfield assist of the postseason in Game 4, throwing out DeLauter at second base in the 1st inning. He’s the fourth player in Rays postseason history with multiple outfield assists, joining B.J. Upton, Kevin Kiermaier and Hunter Renfroe (each had two outfield assists for the Rays).