ST. PETERSBURG -- The Rays found themselves in an unusual position this week. They were practicing and preparing for the American League Division Series, putting their heads together and planning ahead for whatever the best-of-five series might bring.
The only thing they didn’t know? Which team they’d be facing.
That question was answered on Wednesday night, when the Yankees quickly finished a convincing Wild Card Series sweep of the Red Sox. Now, the stage is set for the Rays and Yankees -- the AL’s two best teams in the regular season -- to renew their rivalry in the postseason, starting with Game 1 on Saturday night at Tropicana Field.
The Rays’ previous uncertainty about their opponent was offset by their familiarity with both AL East rivals, according to manager Kevin Cash.
“I don't think we're going to do anything to surprise them,” Cash said on Wednesday afternoon, “and I'm guessing they're not going to do too many things that are going to surprise us.”
That familiarity means we can already take a closer look at some of the most important matchups that may swing the series. Here are five to watch.
1. Drew Rasmussen vs. the Yankees lineup
Rasmussen will start Game 1 at home, which puts him in line to pitch a potential Game 4 at Yankee Stadium.
That’s ideal for the Rays for many reasons, chief among them his dominance this season. Nothing that’s happened before necessarily carries into October, but it can’t hurt that Rasmussen has been somewhat of a Yankee-killer throughout his career.
In 10 career regular-season starts against the Yankees, Rasmussen is 5-2 with a 1.81 ERA. Half of the damage he’s allowed came in one start on July 9, when he gave up six runs in 2 1/3 innings; otherwise, he gave up two runs or fewer in the other nine starts.
A lot of important Yankees hitters have struggled against Rasmussen, including Aaron Judge (2-for-16, eight strikeouts), Ben Rice (1-for-16), Cody Bellinger (4-for-17), Jazz Chisholm Jr. (2-for-14), Anthony Volpe (0-for-11) and Ryan McMahon (1-for-10).
2. Small ball vs. the Yankees defense
No team put the ball in play this season more often than the Rays. They’re not afraid to make productive outs, move runners, run the bases aggressively and, yes, drop down bunts.
The Yankees learned that the hard way at the Trop in April, when the Rays put on a small-ball clinic and capitalized on some sloppy defense to pull off a sweep.
New York is sure to be ready for those tactics this time around, and the Yankees’ infield looks different now than it did then. But this is bound to be a factor at some point, especially with the run-scoring environment at Tropicana Field.
Can the Rays make it work again?
3. The hitters vs. Cam Schlittler
Schlittler is potentially lined up to pitch Games 2 and 5. That’s obviously good news for the Yankees, who can lean on the AL Cy Young Award front-runner for two road starts, but just how good could shape the series.
The Rays would surely be thrilled to force a repeat of the first and third outings: run up his pitch count, score a couple runs and get him out of the game. But nobody would be surprised if he puts on a re-run of the second outing, either. How will Tampa Bay handle him?
4. Yankees lefty starters vs. Rays lineup
See if you can figure this one out: The Rays went 31-17 this season when facing a left-handed starter, but their .679 OPS against lefties was the sixth-lowest mark in the Majors.
Left-hander Max Fried has had his way with Tampa Bay throughout his career, going 5-1 with a 1.81 ERA in seven starts, and he seems likely to start Game 3. And the Rays just saw the best of lefty Carlos Rodón last week, as he threw eight scoreless innings with eight strikeouts at Yankee Stadium on Sept. 22, although it’s unclear where he’ll fit in the ALDS rotation.
Can the Rays get to those guys or, at least, hang on long enough to get them out of the game?
5. The Trop vs. the Bronx
The Rays went 55-26 at home this season. The Yankees were 46-34 at home. The season series was split, 7-6 in the Rays’ favor. Five of Tampa Bay’s wins came at the Trop, while the club went 2-4 in the Bronx.
When two teams are as closely matched as the Rays and Yankees, how much does home-field advantage matter? We’re about to find out.