This story was excerpted from AJ Cassavell's Padres Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
SAN DIEGO -- We’re just about halfway there. The Padres reach the midpoint of their season on Saturday with the Dodgers in town. And I’ll be entirely honest: I’ve spent three months watching this team, and I’m still not sure what to make of it.
The Padres certainly haven’t been what I thought they’d be. I thought this lineup might be one of the best in baseball. I thought this rotation would seriously underwhelm, considering the injuries and personnel.
There have been signs pointing in the direction of both of those things. But for the most part, the rotation has made it work (barely). And the offense hasn’t been anywhere near the threat it should be on paper.
But there’s still half a season left to play.
And here’s the other reality: Does anything that happened up to this point really matter? Sure, it’s all part of the bigger picture. Every win counts the same. But the Padres -- for all the ups and downs -- are just about where we thought they’d be.
They’re squarely in the NL Wild Card mix. But they haven’t separated themselves at all. Which means that 2026 Padres will ultimately be defined by what happens over the next three months, not by what happened in the first three. With that in mind, here are some reasons for optimism and some reasons to be skeptical.
Reasons for optimism:
1. The bullpen is as good as advertised. We knew it was excellent coming into the season. And it hasn’t disappointed. Entering play Wednesday, the Padres’ 3.42 relief FIP was the best in baseball, and their 3.15 ERA was second-best. They’re the only team to accrue more than 3.5 fWAR from their relief pitchers -- and they’re all the way up at 5. Mason Miller has been a dominant force at the back end. Adrian Morejon is back to his dominant self. There are any number of other high-leverage options available. If the Padres can find their way into the postseason, they’re going to seriously shorten games -- an October formula that’s proven to work.
2. Rotation reinforcements are coming, in some way, shape or form. Both Nick Pivetta and Joe Musgrove played long toss on Tuesday, which manager Craig Stammen called “a sight for sore eyes.” No kidding. The Padres need them -- at least one of them. Their rotation is on shaky ground right now. But here’s a secret about the Padres’ season: If they can withstand an iffy rotation in June, they might have a passable (or even good) rotation come September and October. That’s especially true if, as expected, general manager A.J. Preller gets involved in the starting-pitching trade market.
3. The big bats haven’t hit at all. Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill and Fernando Tatis Jr. have been disappointing through the season’s first three months. And yet, the Padres remain afloat. Suddenly, it looks like that trio might be beginning to heat up. At the very least, Tatis certainly is. And Machado has delivered his share of clutch moments in the past week. If that trio can revert to its All-MLB-caliber ceiling, this should be a fearsome offense.
Then again …
Reasons for skepticism:
1. The big bats haven’t hit at all. To the above point -- who’s to say that trio will revert to its All-MLB-caliber ceiling? We’re at the halfway point of the season. The samples are no longer small. It’s reasonable to expect Machado, Merrill and Tatis to perform better than they did in the first half. But “better” is not enough. The Padres still rank last in the Majors in wRC+. They’re last in the Majors in batting average and 29th in runs. It’s not good enough for Machado, Tatis and Merrill to be league average hitters. If the Padres want to contend, they need the best versions of all three, or at least a couple of them.
2. Can this rotation really keep getting by? I didn’t think I’d ever be sitting here in late June saying this, but … Where would the Padres be without Walker Buehler? He’s been their second most reliable starter behind Michael King. This isn’t a knock on Buehler. But that should tell you a lot about the question marks in this rotation. Even treading water until Pivetta and Musgrove return feels like a big ask. When they do return, well, there are never any guarantees with elbow injuries. Meanwhile, as long as the rotation remains iffy …
3. The bullpen’s workload is a heavy one. I’m honestly not sure whether the Padres could have done it any other way. They’ve played so many close games in the first half of the season. They’re also not getting much length from their starters. So the burden on their bullpen has been an outsized one. Entering Wednesday, that bullpen covered 326 innings, sixth-most in the Majors. San Diego is clearly doing its best to preserve its pitchers, using the IL for mild injuries and optioning rookies and other young relievers for rest. But if the Padres’ elite bullpen is going to remain elite deep into October, it can’t be taxed so heavily by late June.